Inflation Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Inflation Update
  • Inflation Expectations Chart

Stock futures are slightly higher this morning while global shares were mixed overnight ahead of fresh U.S. inflation data and the unofficial start to the Q3 earnings season.

Economically, German CPI met expectations while Eurozone Industrial Production beat estimates, which is helping ease recent stagflation concerns this morning.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on inflation data with the September CPI report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 0.3%, 5.3%) as well as the start of Q3 earnings season with JPM ($3.00) and DAL ($0.15) reporting results before the open.

Then in the afternoon, we will get the FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) and multiple Fed speakers: Brainard (3:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (8:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and ultimately move equity markets (especially if yields make new highs).

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

U.S. equity futures fell with global stocks overnight amid ongoing stagflation fears but optimism that the House will pass the debt ceiling bill today has helped stocks stabilize.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey slightly missed estimates while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 99.1 vs. (E) 99.5 but neither report is materially moving markets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: August JOLTS (E: 11.013M) but it would take a meaningful surprise in the release to impact markets as it is a very dated report.

Meanwhile, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak but there are two notable Treasury auctions to watch: 3-Yr Note (11:30 a.m. ET) and 10-Yr Note (1:00 p.m. ET).

Outside any potential surprises from Congress regarding the bill to raise the debt limit, if we see rates continue to accelerate higher on inflation worries today, then stocks could remain volatile and potentially test last week’s lows.

Tom Essaye Interviewed by TD Ameritrade Network on October 11, 2021

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Takeaways From Recent Market Volatility

This week will give insight into when the Fed might start tapering, says Tom Essaye, Founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to watch the full interview.

Focus Turns to Earnings and Yields

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Focus Turns to Earnings and Yields (And Away from Washington, For Now)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Earnings Results Ease Market Anxiety?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key Inflation and Growth Data this Week

Futures are modestly lower on a resumption of the commodity rally following an otherwise quiet weekend.

Energy prices (oil, natural gas, coal) are all rallying again (up 2% – 3%) and that’s increasing global inflation anxiety, which is weighing moderately on futures.

Global bond yields are also rising as two hawkish Bank of England members warned of a possible rate hike this year, although that is not the consensus expectation (although a rate hike from the BOE in early 2022 is looking more likely).

Today is Columbus Day and the U.S. bond markets are closed and there are no economic reports today, although there is one Fed speaker: Evans (6:00 p.m. ET).  So, commodity prices are Treasury yields should drive trading today.  The more they rise, the stronger the headwind on stocks will become.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on October 7, 2021

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The Dow Closes Higher on Debt Ceiling Deal and Ahead of Friday’s Critical Jobs Report

For Friday’s trading, if the employment result shows more than 750,000 jobs were added…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on October 6, 2021

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4 Catalysts That Could Send The Stock Market Higher Or Lower From Here

Right now, the current market valuation assumes that tax increases are relatively small and that companies bear most of the…Tom Essay said. Click here to read the full article.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are little changed as the debt ceiling extension was made official during an otherwise quiet night.

Economic data was mixed as the Chinese Service Sector PMI beat estimates (53.4 vs. (E) 49.1) while Japanese House Hold Spending missed expectations (-3.0% vs. (E) -1.9%), but those numbers aren’t moving markets.

The debt ceiling extension was signed late last night and the proverbial “can” has been kicked to late December.

Today focus will be on the Employment Situation report are expectations are as follows:  E: Job Adds: 475K, UE Rate:  5.1%, Wages:  0.4% m/m 4.6% y/y.  Treasury yields remain buoyant (the 10-year yield was above 1.60% overnight) so risk remains that a “Too Hot” number spikes yields and hits stocks.

 

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

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Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is a Debt Ceiling Deal a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

Stock futures are trading higher with global shares this morning as investors cheer the likely deal to extend the debt ceiling while falling energy prices, particularly in Europe, are helping ease broader inflation concerns.

Economically, German Industrial Production for August was very disappointing with a -4.0% headline drop in August (E: -0.4%) however the data is not materially moving markets this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 348K), but a meaningful beat or miss in the headline could cause a hawkish or dovish reaction in markets ahead of tomorrow’s September jobs report.

Additionally, there are a few central bank events that could move markets: ECB Minutes (7:30 a.m. ET) and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks (11:45 a.m. ET).

Beyond those potential catalysts, markets will remain focused on the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington and bond yields. And as long as there is not material deterioration in the former or a major resurgence higher in the latter, then stocks should be able to maintain yesterday’s upside momentum.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on October 5, 2021

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U.S. oil futures build on a nearly 7-year high; natural-gas prices post highest finish since 2008

Prices also got a boost from forecasts for colder weather later in the week across much…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on October 5, 2021

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Tech Stocks and Yields Are Rising Together. That’s Not Supposed to Happen.

The yield has been rangebound between 1.46% and 1.54%. A move above that higher level could indicate the yield…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.