Important Economic Data This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Recovery Losing Momentum?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, Global PMIs Thursday (Two Important Reports)

Futures are slightly lower following a weekend of mixed macro-economic news.

On infrastructure, President Biden reaffirmed his support for the bipartisan bill, reversing Friday’s stance that he’d only sign it as part of a larger infrastructure program.  But, at this point, the entire process remains fluid, and markets don’t expect any final bills anytime soon (although we should prep for more “corporate tax hike” headlines, although that remains ultimately unlikely).

COVID trends deteriorated slightly over the weekend with Australia and South Africa re-implementing lockdowns following an increase in cases of the “delta” variant but so far this isn’t an issue in the U.S. (so it’s not directly impacting markets).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers including Williams (9:00 a.m.ET), Harker (11:00 a.m. ET) and Quarles (1:10 p.m. ET), and if their comments are more hawkish than expected it will be a slight headwind on stocks.  On infrastructure, expect more headlines but again the market doesn’t expect anything passing anytime soon, so they won’t be material influences on the markets.

Oil Update: EIA Data and OPEC+ Policy Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June PMI Composite Flash Data Takeaways
  • Oil Update: EIA Data OPEC+ Policy Outlook

S&P futures are trading solidly higher this morning amid infrastructure deal optimism ahead of key data today.

Risk on money flows are being driven by reports that a roughly $1T-$1.2T infrastructure deal, that will not require changes to individual or corporate tax rates, is “imminent.”

This morning is lining up to be a busy one from a catalysts standpoint as there are several important economic reports to watch including: Durable Goods Orders (E: 2.0%), Final Q1 GDP (6.4%), International Trade in Goods (E: -$87.9B), and Jobless Claims (E: 380K).

Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak: Williams (11:00 a.m. ET), Kaplan (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bullard (1:00 p.m. ET) while there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Bottom line, investors will want to see economic data remain strong today but importantly not run “too hot” as that could spark renewed hawkish concerns and weigh on broader equity markets as we saw last week. Additionally, Fed chatter can continue to lean hawkish but not so much that we see policy expectations turn more hawkish than the post-Fed reaction. Finally, today’s 7-Yr Treasury Note auction is the wildcard to watch as if it is a repeat of the February disaster, bond market volatility could spill over into equity markets.

Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t?
  • Existing Home Sales Data Takeaways

Stock futures are trading slightly higher this morning following mixed economic data overnight and a continued digestion of Powell’s “less-hawkish” testimony yesterday.

Economically, June Flash Composite PMI data was mixed as the Japan report disappointed (47.8 vs. E: 48.8) but the Eurozone print beat estimates (59.2 vs. E: 58.8).

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the U.S. PMI Composite Flash due to be released shortly after the bell (E: 67.9) and then a report on New Home Sales (E: 881K) will print at the top of the 10 a.m. hour.

Additionally, there are several Fed speakers to watch who could move markets today including: Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET), Rosengren (6:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact bonds and ultimately stocks if yields move on the results.

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Coin Republic on June 17, 2021

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Investors bullish despite Bitcoins Volatility: Survey

The Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that Bitcoin needs to have more widespread legitimate adoption for… Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 17, 2021

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Ford Pops, Winnebago Drops, and Stocks Are Down as Markets Digest the Fed

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s more…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Economic Breaker Panel: June Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sevens Report Economic Breaker Panel: June Update

U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after wavering between gains and losses overnight as investors continue to digest the whipsaw moves across asset classes since last week’s Fed meeting and look ahead to more commentary from Chair Powell today.

There were no market-moving economic reports overnight.

Today, there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.715M) but the release is not likely to materially move markets.

That will leave investors focused on the Fed with several officials speaking today including: Mester (10:30 a.m. ET), Daly (11:00 a.m. ET), and Powell (2:00 p.m. ET). Powell’s testimony before Congress this afternoon will be the main event of the session as he is likely to discuss the Fed’s plans to balance rising inflation with the still fragile economic recovery.

Finally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could offer some insight into the market’s expectations for Fed policy as the short end of the yield curve has moved sharply higher since last week’s FOMC meeting.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on June 17, 2021

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Oil prices end sharply lower as Fed’s shift in tone lifts U.S. dollar

The rise in the dollar was certainly a renewed headwind for oil and all commodities, prompting some cross-asset funds…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – Four Pillars of the Rally Remain Intact
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Flash PMIs and Core PCE in Focus

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning while international equities were mixed overnight as markets attempt to stabilize following last week’s volatile, Fed-induced declines.

News flow was quiet over the weekend as there were no major economic releases or central bank developments however the yield curve remains in focus as several key spreads have flattened to multi-month lows on hawkish policy expectations and a more cautious growth outlook.

There are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.

The lack of market catalysts will leave investors to continue to digest last week’s Fed developments and closely monitor the bond markets for further clues on expectations for both monetary policy and the state of the economic recovery.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on June 16, 2021

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Dish Network Is Gaining, GM Is Jumping and the Stock Market Has Stalled Ahead of the Fed

Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Why Did Cyclicals Collapse Yesterday?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Cyclicals Collapse Yesterday? (Reflation vs. No-Flation)

Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet night of news.

Economic data was mixed overnight as UK Retail Sales missed estimates (-1.4% vs. (E) 1.8%) while both Japanese and German inflation metrics (CPI and PPI) slightly beat estimates.

The Bank of Japan made no change to policy and extended its COVID lending programs by 6 months (as expected).

Today there are no Fed speakers and no notable economic reports so focus will be on the “micro-economic” and whether we see a continuation of the large tech outperformance from yesterday. Also, there is a quadruple witching options expiration today which will cause large volumes (and possibly volatility) into the close.