What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks?
What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks? Futures are bouncing modestly this morning, traders and investors are showing more interest than normal in the US Treasury’s foreign exchange report and more.
Author Archive for: Tom Essaye
Entries by Tom Essaye
Updated Market Outlook Post Pullback
Putting the Pullback In Context (We’ve Seen Something Similar Twice This Year): Today focus will turn towards economic data, futures are moderately lower, nothing outright negative occurred over the weekend to cause the resumption of selling and more.
Is This the Fed’s Fault?
Today we get bank earnings and JPM already released results and beat estimates, while we wait for WFC (E: $1.17) at 8:00 a.m. Economically we get Consumer Sentiment (E: 99.5) and there are two Fed speakers, Evans (9:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET) but none of that should move markets.
Sell Off: Why It Happened and What’s Next
Sell Off Takeaways: Why We Don’t View It as a Bearish Gamechanger (Yet). Futures are sharply lower as global markets dropped following the Wednesday rout in U.S. stocks, today the key event is the Core CPI report (E : 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y) out this morning. This release is even more important than before because if it prints “hot” (core CPI above .4% m/m) that will add to the concern that the Fed is going to get more hawkish and that will add another source of pressure on stocks, which we obviously don’t need right now. Conversely, if this number is inline of a little light, that could provide a catalyst for markets to try and stabilize and more.
Another Breaker Tripped
Today, we get our first of two notable inflation figures this week: PPI (E: 0.2%) as well as Wholesale Trade (E: 0.8%) and there are two Fed speakers to watch: Evans over the lunch hour (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic after the close (6:00 p.m. ET).
Rotation to Value
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index eased to 107.9 vs. (E) 108.0 last month, but remains near a record high, with the NFIB already out, there are no additional economic reports in the US today but there are two Fed speakers to watch, one shortly after the open: Evans (10:00 a.m. ET) and one later this evening: Williams (9:15 p.m.ET) and more.
Start of a Pullback? Two Factors to Watch
Today the calendar is quiet due to the Columbus Day holiday, and as such there are no economic reports today or Fed speakers, and the bond market is closed. That said, we could still see volatility and once again tech is a leading indicator for the market, futures and most global markets are moderately lower thanks to further deterioration in U.S./China relations and more.
Higher Rate Playbook
Today the focus will be on the jobs report, and expectations are – Jobs: 180k, Unemployment: 3.8%, Wages: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y, futures are flat following a generally quiet night as markets look ahead to this morning’s jobs report and more.
Yield Breakout (Threat to Stocks?)
Today focus will be on bond yields (does the surge in yields/dollar continue?) as well as the Pence speech on China (just how critical will it be?), futures are moderately lower following hawkish commentary by Fed Chair Powell and ahead of a critical speech on China by VP Pence and more.
Why Italy’s Budget Matters
Europe will remain the primary focus today and as long as the overnight progress on the Italian budget plans is not forfeited in morning trade (before the Euro close) then risk on money flows and an easing dollar should support some upward momentum in US stocks today, futures are modestly higher and European shares stabilized overnight thanks to positive developments in Italy and more.