Jobs Report Preview
Jobs Report Preview, futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from the Wednesday rally, AAPL reports today but after the bell, so the focus of the regular session today will be on economic data and more.
Author Archive for: Tom Essaye
Entries by Tom Essaye
Was Yesterday an “All Clear?”
Dusting Off An Old Leading Indicator for Recessions. Today focus will remain on earnings. GM ($1.26) is the highlight but if the broad number of results are “ok” that should continue to help sentiment, Futures are extending Tuesday’s rally thanks to decent overnight earnings and despite universally disappointing economic data and more.
Valuation Update: Good, Bad, and Ugly
Valuation Update: Good/Bad/Ugly Scenario Analysis, futures are slightly higher this morning and Asian stocks traded relatively well overnight, for the S&P to gain material upside momentum, we will need to see a strong run to and through 2700 and then for that area to hold, otherwise an early gain followed by a pullback (like yesterday) will be more likely and the path of least resistance still lower for the very near term and more.
Updated Market Outlook (Fundamental & Technical)
Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following Friday’s drop, the weekend was generally quiet although sentiment towards Italy is a bit better after S&P did not downgrade the country’s credit rating, there are no notable earnings reports today so focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 1.9% y/y) which is contained in the Personal Income and Outlays Report. This market does not need suddenly “hot” inflation numbers that will make the Fed more hawkish. and more.
Bounce or Bottom? Updated Market Technicals
Bounce or Bottom? Futures and global markets are sharply lower and have given back most of Thursday’s gains, AMZN and GOOGL both posted disappointing earnings, markets look like they are going to open sharply lower and more.
What If It Is Peak Earnings? (Market Outlook)
What If It Is Peak Earnings? (It Hasn’t Been That Bad in the Past), today there are actually multiple macro events including an ECB Decision (No Change is expected to rates or QE but we’ll be watching to see if Draghi notes equity market volatility), Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.0%) plus there are two Fed speakers: Clarida (12:15 p.m. ET), Mester (7:00 p.m. ET).
Four Steps to a Bottom
US futures are in the red again this morning, most importantly for stocks right now, there are a slew of earnings reports today, as far as US economic data goes today, there are two reports on the housing market this morning: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) and New Home Sales (E: 625K) while the more important release to watch will be the PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.1) due out shortly after the open. and more.
Technical Update
Market Technical Update (Three Support Levels for the S&P 500 and a Line in the Sand for the VIX), but today focus will remain on earnings (which were “ok” overnight and this morning as AXP, PYPL and HON beat) and Italy.
An Overlooked (But Important) Earnings Report
An Overlooked (But Important) Earnings Report, futures are modestly lower thanks to disappointing economic data, today will be a busy day as we get an important economic report, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 20.0) and two Fed speakers (Bullard (9:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (12:15 p.m. ET)) who could add to the growing “hawkish” narrative, and more.
Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?
US stock futures are down roughly 10 points this morning as yesterday’s big rally and notable post-market gains thanks to strong NFLX earnings are digested and investors look ahead to the Fed Minutes today.