FOMC Decision Takeaways, futures are slightly higher, it was a quiet night of news as there were no new headlines on trade, today focus will remain on the economic data, which becomes even more important in the face of the not dovish enough Fed. We get to notable reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 16.5) and if the later misses expectations, look for more selling and more.
FOMC preview, US stock futures are enjoying a pre-Fed bounce this morning, despite the bounce in futures, news flows were actually bearish since yesterday’s close as both FDX and MU made cautious comments about slowing global growth in their respective earnings calls and both cut guidance for 2019, In the US today, there is one economic report due to be released: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.190M) and a “beat” would be well received after the string of soft housing data points of recent, but frankly all eyes will be on the Fed and the report will not materially move markets, and more.
Technical Update: ugly breaks, S&P futures are bouncing this morning but only modestly so relative to yesterday’s sizeable declines in U.S. markets which weighed broadly on global shares overnight (although the losses were not as bad as feared), Oil is notably down almost 3% as concerns have shifted from the supply side to demand side in recent weeks, there is only one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.22M) but if it is a “whiff” like yesterday’s Housing Market Index was, which hit a multi-year low, it could keep growth concerns elevated and prevent a material relief rally and more.
A new headwind on stocks (it’s potentially a big one), it’s not all bad – a legitimate positive scenario for Q1 ‘19, weekly market preview, weekly economic cheat sheet and more.
Political risks to this market, futures are sharply lower (about 1%), Chinese Retail Sales (8.1% vs. (E) 9.0%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 5.9%) both badly missed estimates, geopolitically it was a quiet night although Chinese officials confirmed the reduction of auto tariffs to 15% from 40% (this was already pledged but it is good to see it will be enacted on Jan 1.) and more.
Economic Breaker Panel December update (more signs of weakness), EIA Analysis – can the bounce in oil hold?, Futures are slightly higher following a very quiet night of news, as markets digest recent volatility, economic data was sparse as German CPI was the only notable number and it met expectations (2.3% yoy), today the highlight event is the ECB Meeting (E: No Change to Rates) but other than a potentially dovish tone from Draghi at the press conference, this shouldn’t impact markets too much. and more.
Dow Theory: first bearish signal since July 2015, futures are enjoying a bounce this morning, there is only one economic report: PPI (E: 0.0%) however inflation has been an important topic recently and a material “miss” or “beat” could move markets and more.
Why stocks dropped (new reason) and how markets stabilize, weekly market preview, weekly economic cheat sheet (CPI Wed. and lots of data Friday), futures and global markets are modestly lower due to momentum from Friday’s sell off and more.
Market technical update (encouraging signals), why the yield curve has flattened SO quickly (Blame Oil), futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s late day rally and look ahead to this morning’s jobs report, geopolitically, initial reports imply the U.S./China trade talks will continue despite the Huawei CFO arrest, why stocks rebounded yesterday and more.
Why markets are dropping again (And Why We Don’t Think It’s a Bearish Gamechanger), what needs to happen in the short term for markets to stabilize, jobs report preview, futures are sharply lower as the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada has added to uncertainty on U.S./China trade, while oil is down sharply due to OPEC disappointment and more.