Today the calendar is quiet due to the Columbus Day holiday, and as such there are no economic reports today or Fed speakers, and the bond market is closed. That said, we could still see volatility and once again tech is a leading indicator for the market, futures and most global markets are moderately lower thanks to further deterioration in U.S./China relations and more.
Today the focus will be on the jobs report, and expectations are – Jobs: 180k, Unemployment: 3.8%, Wages: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y, futures are flat following a generally quiet night as markets look ahead to this morning’s jobs report and more.
Today focus will be on bond yields (does the surge in yields/dollar continue?) as well as the Pence speech on China (just how critical will it be?), futures are moderately lower following hawkish commentary by Fed Chair Powell and ahead of a critical speech on China by VP Pence and more.
Europe will remain the primary focus today and as long as the overnight progress on the Italian budget plans is not forfeited in morning trade (before the Euro close) then risk on money flows and an easing dollar should support some upward momentum in US stocks today, futures are modestly higher and European shares stabilized overnight thanks to positive developments in Italy and more.
Is Canada the Clear Winner from the New NAFTA? S&P futures are decidedly lower while most international markets were down overnight thanks to Italian political/budget fears, the 2.4% budget deficit Italy proposed to the EU was not well received yesterday, there are no notable US economic reports but there are two Fed speakers to watch: Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), and more importantly Chair Powell (12:00 p.m. ET) and more.
Today the key economic report is the September ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 59.9). That number needs to remain firm to help support stocks, more broadly, while futures are higher on the U.S./Canada trade news, that’s unlikely to spur a sustainable rally for two reasons: First, a U.S./Canada deal was always expected, so this isn’t a real surprise. Second, the big trade wildcard, China, saw things get incrementally worse over the weekend with the cancellation of the security meeting. Bottom line, I’ll be surprised and impressed if this early Canada related rally can hold throughout the day.
The official Italian budget produced a deficit of 2.4% of GDP, larger than hoped by markets. The euro extended its loses from Thursday and German bund yields declined following the announcement and more.
Today there are multiple economic reports including Durable Goods Orders (E: 2.2%), Final Q2 GDP (E: 4.3%), Jobless Claims (E: 216K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.0%) as well as two Fed speakers, Kaplan (2:00 p.m. ET), Powell (4:30 p.m. ET). But, Powell just spoke at length yesterday so he shouldn’t say anything too surprising. Meanwhile, unless we get a very disappointing Durable Goods report, the economic data shouldn’t move markets.
Today, the main market focus will be the Fed Events: FOMC Announcement and Forecasts (2:00 p.m. ET), Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) although, there is also one economic report out in the U.S. this morning: New Home Sales (E: 630K), stock futures are slightly positive this morning and more.
Today’s session is not likely to be a very exciting one with the Fed looming tomorrow but there are some housing market reports due out before the bell, US stock futures are pointing to a modest rebound this morning after yesterday’s pullback, on a positive note, the US did sign a revised trade deal with South Korea and more.