Entries by Tom Essaye

Two Important Takeaways from Yesterday’s Testimonies

What are we talking about: Yesterday’s most important testimony (it wasn’t Cohen), Futures are modestly lower again this morning following more disappointing Chinese economic data, global growth remains a concern as the Chinese Feb. manufacturing PMI missed estimates, the U.S./North Korea summit ended early and without a substantive agreement and more.

A New Risk For Bond Portfolios?

Powell’s Senate testimony takeaways (not a dovish catalyst near term), did the Fed quietly make a long term policy change? (it means higher inflation could be coming), Futures, economic data was spare as Euro Zone money supply slightly missed estimates and more.

What a Trade Deal Means for the Rally

What a U.S. – China trade deal means for the rally, Futures are down modestly and international shares were broadly lower overnight, the German GfK Consumer Climate report was in-line with estimates and more.

Seven Macro Catalysts

Seven “If’s” that will move this market, money flows are decidedly risk-on this morning thanks to renewed optimism about U.S.–China trade negotiations, President Trump officially delayed the March 1st tariff deadline, economic reports, U.S.–China trade negotiations, market moving catalysts and more.

A New Prognosis from Dr. Copper?

Is Dr. Copper’s Prognosis for the Markets Just Change? This week’s copper breakout paused yesterday as stocks took a breather from their recent run higher and the dollar rallied…

Why QT Matters to This Market

Why Quantitative Tightening matters to this market, Futures are flat, Japanese & EU flash manufacturing PMIs both fell below 50 in February, multiple media outlets reported a U.S./China trade deal is almost done and more.

Technical Tipping Point

Technical Update — We’ve reached the tipping point: The last few months have been a wild ride in the stock market. Beginning with the sharp “buyers’ strike” selloff into Christmas, followed by the whipsaw reversal back higher that resulted in…and more.

Valuation Update

Valuation Update – What will cause a further rally? Weekly market preview, updated economic outlook, Futures, US-China trade developments, British Labour Market Report and more.

Time to Chase Stocks? Not So Fast

Money flows were risk-on overnight thanks to continued trade-war optimism, Trump said he would push back the March 1st tariff deadline, Economic data out overnight was less optimistic, the major focus of the market right now however remains the trade negotiations in Beijing and stocks will be most sensitive to any material headlines regarding the ongoing talks and more.

Is a Fed “Pause” Actually Good for Stocks?

Is a Fed “Pause” actually good for stocks?, futures are decidedly higher after Congress reached a deal to avert another government shutdown, today, there is one economic report: December JOLTS (E: 6.950M) and several Fed speakers to watch: Powell (12:45 p.m. ET), George (5:30 p.m. ET), and Mester (6:30 p.m. ET) and more.