What’s in Today’s Report:
- Trump/XI Meeting Takeaways & Updated Market Outlook
- Weekly Market Preview
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Lots of important data this week despite the holiday)
Futures are surging after Trump and Xi did what was widely expected at the G20 and reached a trade “truce.” On balance, the meeting was a mild positive, but not to the extent futures are implying this morning (more on that inside the Report).
Economic data, meanwhile, was universally disappointing overnight. Every manufacturing PMI missed expectations this morning including those from China, Germany, the EU and Great Britain. All of those PMIs are now below 50, signaling widespread contraction in manufacturing activity.
OPEC, meanwhile, extended current production caps for six to nine months at their meeting this week, longer than was expected, and oil is rallying 2% as a result.
Today will be spent digesting the G20 “truce” and seeing if markets can hold these early gains once more details emerge. On the economic front, the key number today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.2) and it needs to be “Goldilocks” to support this rally.