Why the Suez Canal Blockage Isn’t Bullish for Oil

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Suez Canal Blockage Isn’t Bullish for Oil
  • Another Bad Treasury Auction (Although Not as Bad as Last Time)

Futures are modestly higher following a quiet night, mostly on momentum from Thursday’s strong U.S. market close.

Economic data was mixed as UK Retail Sales missed estimates (2.1% vs. (E) 2.3%) while the German Ifo Business Expectations survey beat (100.4 vs. (E) 95.0).

Politically, Biden’s press conference revealed nothing new and market focus is now on the details of the looming infrastructure spending/tax hike plan (out this Wednesday).

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 1.5%) which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  If that number runs “hot” and more towards 2.0% yoy, expect more upward pressure on the 10 year Treasury yield (which is up four basis points this morning to 1.67%).  If the 10 year yield breaks above 1.70%, that will likely be a headwind on stocks today.  The other notable number is Consumer Sentiment (E: 83.5), but unless inflation expectations spike, the number shouldn’t move markets.