Why Powell Wasn’t Dovish (Tapering is Coming)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Powell Wasn’t Dovish (Tapering is Coming)
  • Infrastructure Update (Tax Hike Risks)
  • Oil Update, EIA Analysis, and OPEC Outlook (Where is Oil Going?)

Futures are modestly lower following mixed Chinese economic data.

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production all beat estimates, although they were offset by a miss in Q1 GDP (7.9% vs. (E) 8.2%).  But, while GDP got most of the headlines, the bottom line is the rest of the data is more current, and on balance, the outlook for the Chinese economy has improved (which is good for global stocks).

Today there are numerous economic reports to watch including, in order of importance:   Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 28.5), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 18.3), Jobless Claims (E: 368K), and Industrial Production (E: 0.7%).  As has been the case “Goldilocks” data with muted pricing indices will help stocks rally (markets won’t want to see data that’s too strong or too weak).

Turning to the Fed, Chair Powell speaks to the Senate at 9:30 a.m. ET but we should expect the same message as Wednesday and his comments shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to gain momentum and some reports we’ll be watching today include: TSC ($0.89), MS ($1.63), UNH ($4.41), USB ($1.14), BK ($1.01).