What More Tariffs Mean for Markets (Lower Market Multiple)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Tariff Threat Means for Markets (Lower Market Multiple)
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly lower following a steep global sell-off as markets digest Thursday’s tariff threat and the “less dovish than hoped for” Fed, ahead of the jobs report.

Chinese authorities threated retaliation should the tariffs go into effect on September 1st, further escalating trade tensions, although no specifics were given.

Economically, Euro Zone retail sales beat estimates, although revisions were negative so it wasn’t a strong beat.

Today the big event is the Employment Situation Report, and expectations are as follows:  Jobs: 156K, UE Rate: 3.6%, Wages: 0.2%).  The last thing this market needs at this point is a “Too Hot” number that reduces expected Fed rate cuts, or a “Too Cold” number that increases worries about economic growth.  So, from a stock standpoint, the best case in a jobs number between 150k-200k (the higher the better) with tame wage growth and stable unemployment.  If we get that “Goldilocks” number it’ll help markets stabilize.