Three Key Market Variables to Watch
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Three Key Market Variables to Watch
- Thoughts on the Appellate Court Decision (Why It’s Not a Positive for Stocks)
- Weekly Economic Preview: “The Big Three” Reports Are Due This Week
U.S. stock futures are tracking global equity markets lower this morning as bond yields rise and gold hit fresh record highs amid a fresh sense of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Economically, the EU’s Narrow Core HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.3% vs. (E) 2.2% in August which was not a big “miss” but is continuing to keep inflation worries elevated.
Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak but two economic reports to watch with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.7) and Construction Spending (E: +0.1%) data both due to be released.
Additionally, the Treasury will hold 6-Week, 3-Month, 6-Month and 52-Week Bill auctions simultaneously at 11:30 a.m. ET. The wide range of Bill durations being auctions could shed fresh light on the market’s outlook for Fed policy between now and yearend as well as H1’26.
Finally, some late season earnings continue to be released with quarterly reports due from both ZS (-$0.02 and SIG ($1.21) today.
Bottom line, if economic data is “Goldilocks” and supports the case for a soft-landing and Treasury auctions go smoothly (healthy demand), pointing to a September Fed rate cut, equities could recover early losses as focus turns to labor market data due out later in the week. If not, we could see a volatile start to September today, but follow-through selling is unlikely ahead of the key jobs report Friday.
