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Sevens Report: December Strength Usually Comes Late in the Month

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History shows early December choppiness often gives way to a strong year-end rally.

12/22/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

Seasonal reversals like the one seen this November are far from unusual, according to Sevens Report Research. Analysis from Sevens Report shows that in more than 70% of Decembers since 1950, markets have experienced a weak or choppy first half followed by stronger gains into year-end.

December remains one of the market’s most reliable months overall. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher nearly three-quarters of the time, giving it the highest historical win rate of any month. However, Sevens notes that most of those gains typically come late.

Returns through the tenth-to-last trading day of December average just 0.1%, meaning the bulk of the month’s upside historically occurs during the final two weeks, coinciding with the Santa Claus rally. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac confirms a similar pattern.

Given these persistent seasonal trends, Sevens Report Research continues to favor maintaining exposure to large-cap and technology stocks into the end of the year.

Also, click here to view the full article on TheGlobeAndMail.com published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can the Rebound Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Two of the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are moderately lower following a sharp drop in cryptocurrencies, hawkish Bank of Japan commentary and underwhelming Chinese economic data.

Bitcoin fell 5% as pressure on the crypto space increased, although there was no specific reason for the declines.

BOJ Governor Ueda told markets the BOJ would strongly consider a rate hike at its next meeting, pressuring stocks.

Economically, the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 vs. (E) 50.1, the lowest reading in three years.

Today focus will be on the November ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0) and the key here is stability, specifically that we do not see the PMI “fall away” from 50 and badly miss expectations (if it does, it could be signaling sudden deterioration in the manufacturing sector, which would be a negative economic surprise).