Tom Essaye Quoted in The Coin Republic on June 17, 2021

Investors bullish despite Bitcoins Volatility: Survey

The Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that Bitcoin needs to have more widespread legitimate adoption for… Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Courthouse News Service on May 28, 2021

Markets Eke Out Winning Week in Swirl of Data, Good and Bad

Put differently, we all know that inflation surged in April. The key is whether it keeps going through the summer. If inflation continues during the summer months that could cause volatility and… Essay wrote. Click here to read the full article.


More Volatility Ahead But Not Necessarily a Correction

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: More Volatility Ahead (But Not Necessarily A Correction)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Inflation (Still)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s the Most Important Day This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets ignore more Bitcoin volatility following a generally quiet weekend.

Bitcoin volatility remained elevated, with the cryptocurrency falling more than 10% over the weekend, and then bouncing back more than 5% this morning, but markets are ignoring the volatility so far today.

There were no notable economic reports over the weekend, nor any notable central bank speak.

Today there are multiple Fed speakers but we’ll be watching Brainard (9:00 a.m. ET) and Mester (11:00 a.m. ET) specifically to see if there’s any reference to thinking about tapering (if there is look for a small hawkish response from markets). Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and George (5:30 p.m. ET) also speak today but shouldn’t move markets.

Updated Market Outlook (Volatility isn’t Automatically Bearish)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook – Increased Volatility Isn’t Automatically Bearish
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do We Get More Hints of Stagflation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s Flash PMIs are Key.

Futures are modestly lower following disappointing Chinese economic data.

Chinese economic data joined recent U.S. data in hinting at a possible plateauing recovery and building inflation pressures.  Industrial Production rose 9.8% vs. (E) 10.0% while Retail Sales gained 17.7% vs. (E) 25%.  Housing Prices, meanwhile, rose 0.48% vs. (E) 0.41%.

Today the Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 25) is the key report and markets will want to see solid data and stable prices indices.  We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 83) but that shouldn’t move markets.

From a Fed standpoint, Clarida (10:05 am ET) is the headliner today while Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) will also provide comments.

FOMC Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the GameStop Drama Means for Markets
  • FOMC Preview

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as yesterday’s volatile start to the week is digested while investors look ahead to the Fed meeting and a busy earnings week.

Volatility remained elevated overnight as the PBOC unexpectedly withdrew liquidity from the Chinese financial system while the U.K. unemployment rate hit a 5 year high.

Looking into today’s session, there are two measures of the health of the real estate market due out before the market opens: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.8%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.8%), and then Consumer Confidence (E: 88.5) will print shortly after the opening bell.

On the earnings front, the Q4 reporting season picks up today with several notable companies reporting quarterly results pre-market including: JNJ ($1.81), MMM ($2.19), GE ($0.08), VZ ($1.16), and AXP ($1.26), while MSFT ($1.64), AMD ($0.47), and COF ($2.85) will report after the close.

With the FOMC meeting beginning today and more mega-cap tech earnings due later in the week, it is likely we see some sense of “Fed paralysis” in the market as traders reposition into the middle of the week.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on November 13, 2020

“Because the market is so catalyst driven, there’s going to be volatility in this…” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in International Business Times on March 18, 2020

“Volatility is not over yet,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “We also need to see more progress on the pharma side of things, and above all else we need the growth…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on March 17, 2020

“Volatility is not over yet,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note. He pointed out the administration’s stimulus packages need congressional approval. “We also need to see more progress…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye was Quoted in InvestmentNews on August 5, 2019

Wall Street reactions to China trade escalation marked by fear, uncertainty

“It’s not good, obviously. I think that it really surprised a lot of people and I think it underscores that this is not a problem that’s going to be solved in the near-term…” said Tom Essaye, a former trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.


Will Politics Add to the Volatility?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will Politics Add to the Volatility?
  • Why Natural Gas is Surging

Futures are slightly higher as more positive U.S./China commentary was offset by Brexit upheaval.

The outlook for U.S./China trade continued to improve as it was confirmed “high level” talks are occurring.  But, that positive was offset by Brexit turmoil as the British Brexit Minister resigned over the proposed deal.  The Brexit upheaval isn’t a material macro headwind, but it can be filed in the “things this market didn’t need right now” category and it’ll add to volatility.

Fed Chair Powell’s comments after the close were a non-event (he acknowledged some mild softening of economic momentum but didn’t hint at any shift in the policy outlook).

Today there is a lot of important economic data to watch (in order of importance):  Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 20.0), Philly Fed (E: 20.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  There are also multiple Fed speakers today including Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), Powell (11:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (3:00 p.m. ET) but I don’t expect any of them, including Powell, to reveal anything new.

Finally, I’ll be joining Liz Claman on Countdown to the Closing Bell on Fox Business today between 3:00 – 4:00 pm ET to discuss the outlook for this market.