FOMC Meeting Preview
What’s in Today’s Report:
- FOMC Preview
- VIX Chart – Is Volatility About to Surge Again?
U.S. stock futures are tracking European markets lower this morning amid a hawkish reaction to strong economic data and disappointing earnings from UBS and Samsung.
Economic data in Europe showed a reversal back higher in French inflation and better than-feared growth in the EU which is resulting in more hawkish money flows ahead of the several key central bank decisions this week and that is ultimately weighing on risk assets this morning.
Looking into today’s session, there are a few economic reports to watch in the U.S. (in order of importance): Q4 Employment Cost Index (E: 1.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 109.0), Chicago PMI (E: 45.1), and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: -0.5%).
With the FOMC Meeting getting underway, the macro focus will be on rate markets and expectations for the terminal rate as tomorrow’s 25 basis point hike is priced in with nearly 100% confidence. If market-based terminal rate expectations rise today, expect further pressure on risk assets and lower equity prices broadly.
Meanwhile, earnings season continues in full force today with notable releases coming from: UPS ($3.58), GM ($1.65), XOM ($3.32), MCD ($2.45), CAT ($3.95), and AMD ($0.67).