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Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

Stock futures are mildly lower and Treasury yields are rising with the dollar this morning after hotter than expected Chinese inflation data is prompting some hawkish money flows ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

Economically, Chinese CPI rose slightly more than forecast in October (1.5% vs. E: 1.4%) but PPI surged 13.5% vs. (E) 12.0% which was the highest reading since 1995.

Looking into today’s session there are a few potential catalysts to move markets with the October CPI release (E: 0.5%) being the primary focus but Jobless Claims data (E: 267K) will also warrant attention. Both reports are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After those pre-market releases, the schedule is pretty clear with no Fed officials speaking over the course of the day but there is a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and potentially stocks.

Finally, earnings season is already beginning to wind down however DIS ($0.50) will report quarterly results after the closing bell.

Bottom line, focus is on inflation data and if today’s CPI report runs hot, we could see taper expectations, as well as the market’s rate hike outlook, take a hawkish turn which would spur broad market volatility.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed by TD Ameritrade Network on October 11, 2021

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Takeaways From Recent Market Volatility

This week will give insight into when the Fed might start tapering, says Tom Essaye, Founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on September 27, 2021

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U.S. Stocks Retreat as Investors Await Busy Week in Washington

Investors should prepare for more volatility over the coming days…according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who writes the “Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

 

The Current Risks to the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Current Risks to the Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Increasing Headline Volatility?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  How Hot is Inflation and How Much Damage Has COVID Done to the Recovery?

Futures are modestly higher as global markets bounced from Friday’s declines, following a quiet weekend of news.

Tax hike chatter continued to rise over the weekend as Democrats proposed a 26.5% corporate tax (up from the current 21%) and a “top-tier” capital gains tax rate of 28.8% (up from the current 23.8%).

These changes aren’t likely or imminent, but it underscores the market will face tax hike headlines over the coming weeks and months.

There was no notable global economic data overnight.

Today there are no economic reports and no notable Fed speakers, so the focus will be on any more tax hike headlines and on short-term technicals.  Last week stocks were able to rally early in the day and faded in the afternoon.  If that happens again this morning look for downside momentum to pick up a bit and for more moderate declines.

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Coin Republic on June 17, 2021

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Investors bullish despite Bitcoins Volatility: Survey

The Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that Bitcoin needs to have more widespread legitimate adoption for… Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Courthouse News Service on May 28, 2021

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Markets Eke Out Winning Week in Swirl of Data, Good and Bad

Put differently, we all know that inflation surged in April. The key is whether it keeps going through the summer. If inflation continues during the summer months that could cause volatility and… Essay wrote. Click here to read the full article.

 

More Volatility Ahead But Not Necessarily a Correction

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: More Volatility Ahead (But Not Necessarily A Correction)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Inflation (Still)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s the Most Important Day This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets ignore more Bitcoin volatility following a generally quiet weekend.

Bitcoin volatility remained elevated, with the cryptocurrency falling more than 10% over the weekend, and then bouncing back more than 5% this morning, but markets are ignoring the volatility so far today.

There were no notable economic reports over the weekend, nor any notable central bank speak.

Today there are multiple Fed speakers but we’ll be watching Brainard (9:00 a.m. ET) and Mester (11:00 a.m. ET) specifically to see if there’s any reference to thinking about tapering (if there is look for a small hawkish response from markets). Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and George (5:30 p.m. ET) also speak today but shouldn’t move markets.

Updated Market Outlook (Volatility isn’t Automatically Bearish)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook – Increased Volatility Isn’t Automatically Bearish
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do We Get More Hints of Stagflation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Friday’s Flash PMIs are Key.

Futures are modestly lower following disappointing Chinese economic data.

Chinese economic data joined recent U.S. data in hinting at a possible plateauing recovery and building inflation pressures.  Industrial Production rose 9.8% vs. (E) 10.0% while Retail Sales gained 17.7% vs. (E) 25%.  Housing Prices, meanwhile, rose 0.48% vs. (E) 0.41%.

Today the Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 25) is the key report and markets will want to see solid data and stable prices indices.  We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 83) but that shouldn’t move markets.

From a Fed standpoint, Clarida (10:05 am ET) is the headliner today while Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) will also provide comments.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the GameStop Drama Means for Markets
  • FOMC Preview

Stock futures are modestly lower this morning as yesterday’s volatile start to the week is digested while investors look ahead to the Fed meeting and a busy earnings week.

Volatility remained elevated overnight as the PBOC unexpectedly withdrew liquidity from the Chinese financial system while the U.K. unemployment rate hit a 5 year high.

Looking into today’s session, there are two measures of the health of the real estate market due out before the market opens: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.8%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.8%), and then Consumer Confidence (E: 88.5) will print shortly after the opening bell.

On the earnings front, the Q4 reporting season picks up today with several notable companies reporting quarterly results pre-market including: JNJ ($1.81), MMM ($2.19), GE ($0.08), VZ ($1.16), and AXP ($1.26), while MSFT ($1.64), AMD ($0.47), and COF ($2.85) will report after the close.

With the FOMC meeting beginning today and more mega-cap tech earnings due later in the week, it is likely we see some sense of “Fed paralysis” in the market as traders reposition into the middle of the week.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on November 13, 2020

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“Because the market is so catalyst driven, there’s going to be volatility in this…” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.