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Monitoring the Other Two Market Headwinds

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monitoring the Other Two Market Headwinds

Futures are moderately weaker on Iranian denial of any imminent peach talks to end the U.S./Iran war.

Ceasefire hopes didn’t backtrack overnight, but they didn’t progress, either and that’s causing further giveback of this week’s rally.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was the German GfK Consumer Climate which was in-line (-28.0).

Today focus will stay on geo-politics and if cease-fire hopes fade further, oil will spike and stocks will drop, likely hard.

Beyond geopolitics, we get weekly Jobless Claims (E: 210K) and several Fed speakers including: Cook (4:00 p.m. ET), Miran (6:30 p.m. ET), Jefferson (7:100 p.m. ET) and Barr (7:10 p.m. ET) but they are unlikely to move markets.

Will “TACO” Work This Time?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will “TACO” Work This Time?

Futures are tracking global equities higher this morning amid optimism surrounding a sooner-than-later ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war after President Trump hinted the conflict could end “very soon” late yesterday afternoon.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down -0.5 points to 98.8 vs. (E) 99.7 in February.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.88 million) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a gauge for the market’s outlook on inflation risks and future Fed policy expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings continue to trickle in with ORCL ($1.34), FNV ($1.68) and KSS ($0.85) due to report quarterly results today. ORCL, being the legacy tech behemoth that it is, will be the key report to watch as its results could either bolster, or pour cold water on, the still fragile AI-narrative this week.