What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets
- Weekly Market Preview: Does the Conflict Stay Contained?
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: An Important Week for Growth (Jobs Report on Friday)
Futures are moderately lower on geopolitical concerns following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend.
Oil (up 7%) and gold (up 3%) are sharply higher and global stocks are lower as markets price in greater geopolitical risk. But, the moves are in line with expectations (so no worse than feared).
Economically, the UK Manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (51.7 vs. 52.0) while the EU reading met forecasts (52.0) but neither number is moving markets.
Today focus will be on geopolitics and specifically whether the U.S./Iran conflict widens. If the conflict does start to widen (and bring in other countries and expand the number of combatants on both sides) that will be an incremental market negative.
Away from geopolitics, this is an important week for economic data and the first key report comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8). Simply put, the stronger this number, the better as markets need solid growth more right now than they need a sooner than expected rate cut.