Posts

Are Tri-Color and First Brands “Cockroaches?”

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Tricolor and First Brands “Cockroaches?”

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected Taiwan Semiconductor earnings (TSM).

TSM beat earnings and raised guidance, as chip demand is still very strong while the AI cap-ex boom remains in force.

Today there are two notable economic reports, Philly Fed (E: 7.5) and the Housing Market Index (E: 33) along with numerous Fed speakers.  From a data standpoint, given the lack of economic reports lately, solid readings from both reports will be welcomed by investors as it will help reinforce that growth is stable.

Turning to the lineup of Fed speakers today, Waller at 8:00 a.m. ET is likely the only potential market mover because he’s in the running to be the next Fed chair.  Other Fed speakers today include Barkin (8:00 a.m., 12:45 p.m. & 4:30 p.m. ET), Miran (9:00 a.m. & 4:15 p.m. ET), Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (6:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to gain momentum and some reports we’ll be watching today include:  TSM ($2.59), SCHW ($1.23), BK ($1.76), USB ($1.11), TRV ($5.88), IBKR ($0.50), CSX (0.42).

Key Inflation and Fed Events to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The State of Inflation and Fed Speak After CPI (Key Events to Watch)

Futures are pointing to a rebound from yesterday’s profit-taking pullback amid risk-on money flows in China overnight.

Economically, Chinese Retail Sales surprisingly fell -0.5% vs. (E) +0.8% in October but the weak data was followed by the PBOC injecting $150B into the system in new near-term stimulus measures which helped Asian markets rally overnight.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffet has reportedly accumulated a more than $4B stake in TSMC which is helping semiconductors lead equity markets higher this morning.

Looking into today’s session, traders will be watching economic data early with PPI (E: 0.5%, 8.3%) and the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -7.6) due out before the open. For the equity rebound to resume we will want to see another cool inflation print from the PPI release and some signs of stabilization from the Empire release to help ease rising stagflation concerns.

There are also two Fed speakers to watch: Harker (9:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET). If they maintain a less hawkish tone, the S&P should be able to retest yesterday’s highs near 4,010, a key near-term technical resistance level.