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What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

The thesis behind the TACO trade

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The thesis behind the TACO trade: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in The Times of India

Explainer: What is ‘TACO trade’ – a new nickname mocking Trump’s tariff approach

As per a Bloomberg report, “The thesis behind the TACO trade is: Buy the Trump tariff dip,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs. As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Also, click here to view the full The Times of India article featured in MSN, published on May 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%

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Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%: Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Quoted in USA Today

US stocks end near flat as investors turn cautious, take profits ahead of China deal talks

An 80% tariff is down from a levy as high as 145% currently but still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Research Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on USA Today published on May 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A ‘sell-the-news’ move

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A ‘sell-the-news’ move: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investor’s Business Daily

Dow Jones Breaks Winning Streak On Trump Tariff Move; Nvidia, Tesla Fall As Palantir Sinks

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, cautioned that much of Trump’s backtracking on tariffs may already be priced in.

“A ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced” may lead to some more volatility, Essaye said in a note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Investor’s Business Daily article featured on MSN, published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement

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The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why the stock rally may be in trouble after the White House ‘backtracked’ on tariffs

The U.S. stock market has already priced in backtracking on the large and sweeping “liberation day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, making it difficult for the market to keep up its recent rally, according to Sevens Report Research.

“The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement, including a delay while negotiations take place and exempting major categories of imports,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Monday. As an example of tariff exemptions, Essaye pointed to computer chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

“The reality of the past month post-‘liberation day’ hasn’t been as bad as feared and the market has recouped those losses,” said Essaye. “However, I do not think these events are enough to sustainably propel the S&P 500 forward and I am sticking to my general 5,100-5,500-ish range.”

Investors, worried that large tariffs will place a drag on the U.S. economy while increasing the cost of goods for consumers, have been monitoring the White House’s negotiations with its trading partners. But with backtracking on tariffs already priced into the market, Essaye cautioned that “we could even see a ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs
  • The “Rest of the Market” Continues to Outperform – Chart

Stock futures are wavering between gains and losses this morning as traders digest potential tariff relief for auto imports and position into more mega-cap earnings reports.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -20.6 vs. (E) -25.5, helping German markets outperform with the DAX up ~0.75% this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-142.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 87.5), and JOLTS (E: 7.464 million) data all due to be released.

Earnings season also continues today with noteworthy companies reporting results including: PYPL ($1.15), UPS ($1.42), KO ($0.71), V ($2.68), and SBUX ($0.49).

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” Keep the S&P 500 Above 5,500?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” Keep the S&P 500 Above 5,500?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Insight on Tariff Fallout (Important Earnings and Economic Data)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report on Friday and ISM Manufacturing on Thursday are Key Reports to Watch

Futures are modestly weaker following a mostly quiet weekend of news as investors await more clarity on trade deals and insights on how much damage tariffs will do to the economy.

There were no new trade headlines over the weekend (not even notable social media posts) although investors are hopeful trade deals will be announced soon, possibly this week.

Today markets should be quiet (assuming no trade surprises) as there is no notable economic data, no Fed speakers and just one notable earnings report, NXPI ($2.18).  However, don’t let the slow start fool you, as this will be a very busy week of important earnings (AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, V) and economic data and as the week moves on, the busier it will get.

Erode this idea of solid structure of the government

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Erode this idea of solid structure of the government: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump attacks on Powell a “potentially large negative” for markets – Sevens Report

In a note to clients, the Sevens Report analysts argued that if Trump moves to encroach on the Fed’s independence, it could lead to a legal showdown that would exacerbate recent worries over an uncertain business outlook, and possibly send the benchmark S&P 500 down below 5,000.

“Put plainly, global investors buy U.S. assets and come to the U.S. to innovate because they know the rules (the court system is well established and broadly viewed as impartial) and these rules don’t change based on the latest elections or on which power is in control in Washington,” the analysts wrote.

Trump’s recent scathing attacks on Powell, however, “erode this idea of solid structure of the government and as such, erode the idea of American economic exceptionalism,” they added.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal
  • Why Are the Dollar and Treasuries Falling? (Not Good)
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce from Thursday’s declines, despite further trade war escalation.

China increased tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, further escalating the global trade war, although markets, for now, are digesting the move.

Today focus will remain on economic data via PPI (E: 0.02% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.0).  Like Thursday, better than expected numbers won’t help stocks in the near term (they are totally dominated by trade and global macro trends right now) but it will push back on stagflation fears (which is an underlying positive).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers again today, including Collins (9:00 a.m. ET), Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season begins in earnest and important reports today include:  JPM ($4.62), BLK ($10.43), WFC ($1.23), and MS ($2.23).

It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns

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It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Strategist explains why tariff fears shouldn’t be exaggerated

The stock market’s rally this week, driven by the absence of immediate tariff announcements under President Trump’s new administration, has led some investors to believe tariff risks may have been overstated, according to the latest Sevens Report.

However, Sevens warned that it’s premature to relax on tariff concerns, highlighting potential volatility ahead.

“‘Day One’ of the Trump administration contained no blatant and additional tariff threats, as investors had feared,” Sevens Report analysts noted.

Yet, they cautioned, “tariff headlines will remain a consistent source of short-term volatility in markets this year.”

The report points out that Trump’s administration cannot unilaterally impose tariffs without first building a legal case.

“It’s not a surprise that Trump didn’t announce any new tariffs yet, Said the firm, adding that presidents do not have the power to just decree tariffs, especially with trading partners under existing legal trade treaties approved by Congress.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on January 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.