Posts

Sector Winners from a Steepening Yield Curve

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sector Winners from a Steepening Yield Curve

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected tariff news overnight.

President Trump announced semiconductor chip tariffs but included broad exemptions that will dramatically lessen the practical impact of those tariffs.  Investors are now hopefully we’ll get a similar set up for pharma tariffs.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and the most important report today is Jobless Claims (E: 220K).  Given last Friday’s awful jobs report, if we see a jump in claims, it’ll increase concerns the labor market is weakening.  An in-line to slightly better than expected number would be the best case for markets this morning.

Other data today includes Productivity & Costs (E: 1.9%, 2.1%) and Consumer Credit (E: $7.5B) while we also have one Fed speaker, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), although those events are unlikely to move markets.

 

Markets Relieved as Powell Expected to Finish Fed Term

/in , /by

Stability in Fed leadership reassures investors amid earnings season

S&P 500, Nasdaq end with record highs again. Dow jumps, too.

Markets showed signs of relief Friday as expectations solidified that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will finish his term, despite speculation around his potential replacement.

“Markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term,”
said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

With investor attention split between corporate earnings—highlighted by Intel’s results—and central bank leadership, Powell’s expected continuity is seen as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on July 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: No Real Signs of a Slowdown

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard:  No Real Signs of a Slowdown

Futures are drifting slightly higher after a generally quiet night of no additional Trump/Powell drama or trade news.

President Trump’s visit to the Fed was largely uneventful and markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term.

Economic data from Europe slightly underwhelmed as UK Retail Sales (0.9% vs. (E) 1.4%) and German IFO Businesses expectations (90.7 vs. (E) 91.4) both missed estimates.

Today there’s just one notable economic report, Durable Goods (E: -11.0%), and markets will want to see another solid number that reinforces businesses are not slowing investment despite tariff uncertainty.

On earnings, next week is another big one for important companies but there are still some worthwhile results today including: CNC ($0.68), HCA ($6.19), AN ($4.70), PSX ($1.63), AON ($3.40).

 

Stock Rally Builds on Optimism for U.S.-EU Trade Breakthrough

/in , /by

Sevens Report sees momentum from Japan deal

Stock Rally Builds on Hopes for US-EU Trade Deal: Markets Wrap

U.S. stocks extended gains as investors grew hopeful about a potential U.S.-EU trade deal following a successful agreement with Japan.

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.
“The Japan deal raises hopes a similar EU deal can be struck before next Friday.”

Markets continue to ride positive sentiment around trade progress and corporate earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Next Phase of the AI Revolution

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Next Phase of the AI Revolution
  • Why There Was De-escalation in the Trump/Powell Feud Yesterday

Futures are modestly higher following the announcement of a trade deal with Japan late Wednesday night, although underwhelming earnings are offsetting some of that news.

President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan and 15% tariffs on imports, a level not as bad as feared.

Tech earnings overnight underwhelmed, with ASML and TXN posting slightly disappointing results.

Today there is only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.01 million), and it shouldn’t move markets.

So, focus will stay on trade and earnings. On trade, the Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.

On earnings, key reports to watch today include (in order of importance): TSLA ($0.28), GOOGL ($2.14), IBM ($2.64), T ($0.51), TMO ($5.22), FCX ($0.46), NEE ($1.01), TMUS ($2.69).

 

What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

The thesis behind the TACO trade

/in , /by

The thesis behind the TACO trade: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in The Times of India

Explainer: What is ‘TACO trade’ – a new nickname mocking Trump’s tariff approach

As per a Bloomberg report, “The thesis behind the TACO trade is: Buy the Trump tariff dip,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs. As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Also, click here to view the full The Times of India article featured in MSN, published on May 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%

/in , /by

Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%: Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Quoted in USA Today

US stocks end near flat as investors turn cautious, take profits ahead of China deal talks

An 80% tariff is down from a levy as high as 145% currently but still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Research Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on USA Today published on May 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A ‘sell-the-news’ move

/in , /by

A ‘sell-the-news’ move: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investor’s Business Daily

Dow Jones Breaks Winning Streak On Trump Tariff Move; Nvidia, Tesla Fall As Palantir Sinks

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, cautioned that much of Trump’s backtracking on tariffs may already be priced in.

“A ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced” may lead to some more volatility, Essaye said in a note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Investor’s Business Daily article featured on MSN, published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement

/in , /by

The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why the stock rally may be in trouble after the White House ‘backtracked’ on tariffs

The U.S. stock market has already priced in backtracking on the large and sweeping “liberation day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, making it difficult for the market to keep up its recent rally, according to Sevens Report Research.

“The Trump administration has seriously backtracked on the April 2 announcement, including a delay while negotiations take place and exempting major categories of imports,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Monday. As an example of tariff exemptions, Essaye pointed to computer chips, electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.

“The reality of the past month post-‘liberation day’ hasn’t been as bad as feared and the market has recouped those losses,” said Essaye. “However, I do not think these events are enough to sustainably propel the S&P 500 forward and I am sticking to my general 5,100-5,500-ish range.”

Investors, worried that large tariffs will place a drag on the U.S. economy while increasing the cost of goods for consumers, have been monitoring the White House’s negotiations with its trading partners. But with backtracking on tariffs already priced into the market, Essaye cautioned that “we could even see a ‘sell-the-news’ move once some trade deals are announced.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.