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The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tyler Richey Quoted in ABC News

Trump’s Truth Social stock soars after assassination attempt

“The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment toward Donald Trump himself,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“I think there’s a resurgence of people — your die-hard Trump fans and fair-weather supporters — who think, ‘This is a life or death situation, we’re going all in,'” Richey added.

“The financials are atrocious,” Richey said. “But the prospects, while a little doubtful, are still there.”

“If this generates a significant uptick in users, then that could be bullish. Or it becomes a blip of short-term optimism,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tom Essaye Quoted in Los Angeles Times

Trump media shares soar on reelection bid boost

 

“While expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets,” wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump

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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump
  • Acknowledging There’s a Downside to Current Market Events, Too
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Growth and Earnings Hold Up?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Check on the Consumer This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets further price in an expected Trump win and Republican sweep following the assignation attempt on the former President.

Former President Trump survived an assignation attempt over the weekend and while expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak as Powell speaks at noon while we also get the first look at July economic data via the Empire Manufacturing PMI (-5.50).  If Powell is dovish and the data is solid, expect this early rally to continue.

Turning to earnings, this will be a busy week of results but it starts relatively slowly and the only two notable reports today are GS ($8.52) and BLK ($9.96).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate

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Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate (What Happens If Biden’s Replaced?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Economic Data Keep Growth Concerns At Bay?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, ISM PMIs Today and Wednesday.

Futures are slightly higher ahead of a busy and holiday-shortened week of data, as French election results weren’t as bad as feared while global economic data was mixed.

National Rally slightly underperformed in the first round of voting in the French election and the other major parties have agreed to form a coalition to prevent it from becoming an outright majority, reducing French political risks.

Economically, EU and UK May Manufacturing PMIs were mixed but importantly didn’t raise any growth concerns.

This is a busy and important week for economic data as the reports will either increase growth concerns or push back on them.  Today the key report is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.1) and the stronger this number, the better for markets.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today!

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets

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How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets

Futures are modestly higher despite more weak earnings (NKE), as last night’s debate is seen as boosting Trump’s chances to win the election.

President Biden’s performance at last night’s debate raised further concerns about his mental and physical stamina and hurt his re-election chances.  The net result is markets are rallying on Trump’s improved chances to win, as markets generally prefer Republican candidates due to pro-business policies (although actual results are mixed).

Today focus shifts back to data and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y).   Markets will want to see it confirm the good CPI numbers from earlier in the month (meaning at or below estimates) and if that occurs, it should extend this early rally.

There are also two Fed speakers today, Bowman (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (12:40 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

Sevens Report Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter Coming July 1st. 

The Q2 2024 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Monday, July 1st.

We will deliver the letter on the 1st business day of the new quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets?

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Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will the Trump Verdict Impact Markets?
  • When Will Higher Yields Pressure Stocks?

Futures are moderately lower again following more disappointing tech earnings and another hot inflation print.

Salesforce (CRM) missed earnings and joined a growing list of non-AI tech companies to post disappointing result (WDAY last week) and that’s weighing on futures.

Economically, Spanish CPI was hotter than expected as it rose 3.8% y/y vs. (E) 3.7%, up from last month’s 3.4%

Today includes some potentially important economic data as we get the Revised Q1 GDP report (E: 1.5%) and focus will be on the headline as well as any revisions to the PCE Price Data (if it’s revised higher, that’s a negative).  Other notable data today includes Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.3%) and as has been the case all year, “hot” data will be negative for stocks and bond.

There are also two Fed speakers today, Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) and Logan (5:00 p.m. ET), although unless they talk about rate hikes, they comments shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The political hope is meeting a financial reality, Tyler Richey told ABC News.

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The political hope is meeting a financial reality: Sevens Report Analyst, Tyler Richey, Quoted in ABC News

Why is Trump’s Truth Social stock plummeting?

“The political hope is meeting a financial reality,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“The valuation is just astronomical,” Richey said. “So it’s coming back to Earth.”

Supporters of Trump could seek to reverse the company’s declining stock price, Richey said.

“You may have some die-hard supporters come in and support the stock,” Richey said, noting that such a move could elicit a response from skeptics of Trump or the company.

“In this political environment, there’s just as many people that would bet against the stock as would be for it,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full ABC News article published on April 16th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

U.S. Defense Contractors May Benefit From Depletion of Hardware and Munitions

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U.S. Defense Contractors May Benefit From Depletion of Hardware and Munitions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

These defense stocks may fare best whether Biden or Trump wins in November

One of the industry groups whose stocks Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, said he would expect to perform well during a second Trump term is defense.

Trump’s return to the White House could benefit these stock-market sectors – while undercutting others

Of course, regardless of who wins the November election, U.S. defense contractors may benefit from the depletion of hardware and munitions resulting from U.S. and other NATO countries’ support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion, along with renewed efforts to bolster the conventional defenses of Western European countries.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on February 28th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Government Shutdown Update
  • Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies
  • “Short-Volatility Trade” Update: Chart

Futures are little changed this morning as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation print out of Japan and still cautious gauge of consumer sentiment in Europe ahead of a busy day of economic data in the U.S.

Overnight, Japanese Core CPI fell to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.3% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up by a modest 0.7 points to -29.0 vs. (E) -29.6. Neither release was particularly positive for markets but futures are stable ahead of today’s domestic data.

Looking into today’s session, there are four economic reports to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -4.5%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 115.0). Markets will want to see stability in the housing market data and easing but not collapsing growth and sentiment numbers in order for stocks to hold near the recently established record highs.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 2-Yr and 5-Yr Note auctions were weak, putting upward pressure on yields and if today’s 7-Yr auction is weak as well, expect the benchmark 10-Yr yield to test the critical 4.30% level which could weigh on equity markets.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

CPI Preview: Good, Bad and Ugly

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview:  Good, Bad, and Ugly

Futures are slightly lower thanks to more tech stock weakness following a mostly quiet night of macroeconomic news.

Micron (MU) became the second large semiconductor company to produce negative earnings guidance (Monday it was Nvidia) as MU slashed its outlook, and that’s weighing on markets this morning.

Geo-politically, the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago is dominating news coverage, but it has no impact on markets.

Today’s focus will remain on inflation via Unit Labor Costs (E: 9.3%) and if they come to light, that will further strengthen the idea that inflation is peaking and help to support stocks into tomorrow’s CPI report.