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It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns

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It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Strategist explains why tariff fears shouldn’t be exaggerated

The stock market’s rally this week, driven by the absence of immediate tariff announcements under President Trump’s new administration, has led some investors to believe tariff risks may have been overstated, according to the latest Sevens Report.

However, Sevens warned that it’s premature to relax on tariff concerns, highlighting potential volatility ahead.

“‘Day One’ of the Trump administration contained no blatant and additional tariff threats, as investors had feared,” Sevens Report analysts noted.

Yet, they cautioned, “tariff headlines will remain a consistent source of short-term volatility in markets this year.”

The report points out that Trump’s administration cannot unilaterally impose tariffs without first building a legal case.

“It’s not a surprise that Trump didn’t announce any new tariffs yet, Said the firm, adding that presidents do not have the power to just decree tariffs, especially with trading partners under existing legal trade treaties approved by Congress.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on January 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Expect increased noise and volatility surrounding the incoming administration’s new policies

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Expect increased noise and volatility surrounding the incoming administration’s new policies: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Will Take the Stock Market on a Bumpy, if Prosperous, Ride. What to Do Now.

The stock market, then, is left not to climb the proverbial wall of worry but to navigate a swamp of uncertainty. How Trump decides to attack taxes, tariffs, the national debt, and immigration will result in wilder gyrations than we’ve been used to during the past couple of years. “Expect increased noise and volatility surrounding the incoming administration’s new policies, but these are the four main areas whereby those policies could impact the markets and the economy,” writes Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on January 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Investors are likely waiting on specifics before reacting

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Investors are likely waiting on specifics before reacting: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global

Markets shrugging off Trump tariff threats so far

Investors are likely waiting on specifics before reacting, although the tariff threats could signal some forthcoming broad market volatility as new and fluid trade policies inject some uncertainty into the macroeconomic outlook, said Tyler Richey, a co-editor with Sevens Report Research.

“As forward-looking discounting mechanisms, equity markets in particular love stability and a clear consensus outlook for future growth trends,” Richey said. “The implementation of new tariffs would derail the current Wall Street consensus that the Fed is in the process of nailing a soft economic landing that will result in strong, AI-amplified earnings growth in 2025 driving the broader stock market to new records.”

Richey with Sevens Report believes that the upcoming tariffs will likely have a greater impact on equities than those in Trump’s first term.

Also, click here to view the full S&P Global article published on January 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil began to “peel off” after comments from Trump

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Oil began to “peel off” after comments from Trump: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil at 2-week low as Trump’s efforts to lower crude prices imply a boost in output

Oil began to “peel off” after comments from Trump suggested that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may raise oil production, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

In part due to the president’s “America First global policy stance,” Richey said, “the world knows that he wouldn’t hesitate to inflict economic pain on nations with policies in place that are not aligned with our domestic best interests. That includes major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, which has been the de facto leader of OPEC since its inception.”

He continued: “The last thing Saudi Arabia wants right now, though, is lower oil prices amid their already subdued output, so they would not be likely to roll over and open the spigots without some sort of concessions – whether it be military [or] defense assets … or some other promise of U.S. investment in Saudi Arabia.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on January 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Why Did Stocks Hit New Highs?

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Why Did Stocks Hit New Highs?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Hit New Highs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Major Tech Earnings and Wednesday’s Fed Decision
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Wednesday (Do They Push Back on Pause Fears?)

Futures are sharply lower (down more than 2%) on AI and tariff concerns.

Tech stocks are extremely weak (Nasdaq futures are down 4%) on news that a Chinese AI company “Deep Seek” has produced cutting edge AI with minimal costs and no next-gen chips, and this is seriously undermining AI enthusiasm.

Geopolitically, Trump threatened Colombia with tariffs over the weekend and while they ultimately weren’t implemented, it’s a reminder that trade volatility is back.

Today there is only one notable economic report, New Home Sales (E: 669K) and that shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, tech (and specifically the Mag 7) will lead the markets and for stocks to rebound from these steep early losses, we’ll need to see the Nasdaq stabilize and rebound, otherwise this is looking like an ugly day in the markets.

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What the Trump Victory Means for Markets

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What the Trump Victory Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump Victory (and likely Republican Sweep) Means for Markets

Futures are surging more than 2% as Donald Trump soundly defeated Kamala Harris, Republicans flipped the Senate and will likely win the House of Representatives, completing the sweep and taking control of Washington.

Markets are moving sharply on the expected Republican sweep, as the Dollar Index is 1.7% higher, the 10-year Treasury yield jumps 17 bps and oil falls more than 1%.

Away from the U.S., German Manufacturers’ Orders and Euro Zone Composite PMIs were stronger than expected.

Today most of the analysis and commentary will focus on the implications of the likely Republican sweep, but there is also an important economic report out this morning: the November Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.3).  That number needs to stay Goldilocks to keep growth and Fed rate cut expectations intact (and now that the election is behind us, those growth and rate cuts will again drive markets).

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Price-negative for oil

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Price-negative for oil: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures settle at lowest since mid-June

The improved prospects of a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 election are “price-negative for oil as he has said he plans to support production increases to increase energy independence and lower prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tyler Richey Quoted in ABC News

Trump’s Truth Social stock soars after assassination attempt

“The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment toward Donald Trump himself,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“I think there’s a resurgence of people — your die-hard Trump fans and fair-weather supporters — who think, ‘This is a life or death situation, we’re going all in,'” Richey added.

“The financials are atrocious,” Richey said. “But the prospects, while a little doubtful, are still there.”

“If this generates a significant uptick in users, then that could be bullish. Or it becomes a blip of short-term optimism,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tom Essaye Quoted in Los Angeles Times

Trump media shares soar on reelection bid boost

 

“While expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets,” wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump

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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump
  • Acknowledging There’s a Downside to Current Market Events, Too
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Growth and Earnings Hold Up?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Check on the Consumer This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets further price in an expected Trump win and Republican sweep following the assignation attempt on the former President.

Former President Trump survived an assignation attempt over the weekend and while expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak as Powell speaks at noon while we also get the first look at July economic data via the Empire Manufacturing PMI (-5.50).  If Powell is dovish and the data is solid, expect this early rally to continue.

Turning to earnings, this will be a busy week of results but it starts relatively slowly and the only two notable reports today are GS ($8.52) and BLK ($9.96).

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