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Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse
  • Weekly Market Preview: Are there any Real Signs of De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Friday (It’s a Busy Week for Data)

Futures are modestly higher in reaction to more positive commentary from President Trump on the war in Iran.

President Trump told the FT that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 point ceasefire plan and that is boosting futures.

Away from rhetoric, the conflict escalated further over the weekend as the Houthis attacked Israel while an Iranian missile struck a Saudi air base, damaging military aircraft. The gap between rhetoric and actual events in the conflict is keeping any gains in futures modest.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and for this early bounce to hold, we’ll need to see some events on the ground also point towards de-escalation.  Away from the war, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m., so his comments have the potential to move markets.

 

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Credit Spreads: Are We Seeing Liquidity Tightening?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Credit Spreads: Are We Seeing Liquidity Tightening?

U.S. futures are solidly higher with European equity markets thanks to strong earnings from LVMH and ASML.

Economically, Eurozone Industrial Production fell -1.2% vs. (E) -1.6% m/m in August.

Today, there is one economic release to watch: the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.9) and a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move short duration yields.

Additionally, today will be a busy day of Fed Speak with Miran (9:30 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. ET), Bostic (12:10 p.m. ET), Waller (1:00 p.m. ET), and Schmid (1:35 p.m. ET) all scheduled to deliver comments over the course of the day.

Finally, investors will remain keenly focused on earnings with quarterly reports due from ASML ($6.36), BAC ($0.94), MS ($2.08), PGR ($5.08), ABT ($1.30), UAL ($2.64), and JBHT ($1.48) today.

 

Is AI the Only Thing Supporting This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Last Week’s Takeaway: AI Enthusiasm Could Soon Be the Only Thing Holding Up This Market
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Fed Surveys in Focus

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, recovering a good portion of Friday’s losses amid easing trade war fears.

President Trump dialed back Friday’s tariff threats on China with a post on Truth Social saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” which is fueling a relief rally today.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong with exports jumping from 4.4% to 8.3% vs. (E) 6.5% in September.

There are no economic reports in the U.S. today and just one Fed speaker: Paulson (12:55 p.m. ET).

There is one noteworthy “bellwether” earnings release today: FAST ($0.30), however, with bond markets closed in observation of Columbus Day, it is likely to be a quiet day of volatility consolidation.

Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the NOB Spread Signaling a “Run Hot” Economy?

Futures are in the red but off their overnight lows as traders digest President Trump’s latest efforts to “fire” Fed Governor Cook, rekindling “Fed independence” concerns.

Economically, French Consumer Confidence fell 2 points to 87 vs. (E) 89 in August while Prime Minister Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on September 8, surrounding budget concerns which introduces a renewed sense of market uncertainty in Europe.

Looking into today’s session there are multiple noteworthy economic reports to watch today including Durable Goods (E: -4.0%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.6%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.0%), and likely most importantly, Consumer Confidence (E: 96.4).

There is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) as well as a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which could impact Treasuries and impact equity market trading today.

Finally, a handful of late season earnings releases are due out including: BMO ($2.12), BNS ($1.28), and OKTA ($0.33), but the main earnings catalyst this week will be NVDA’s release later in the week.

 

Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Sway Markets

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Investors eye rate-cut signals ahead of Fed meeting and retail earnings

Market-Moving Events Await Including Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting and Retail Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said Monday that Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could have significant market impact.

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations, or he could simply not discuss policy much at all,” Essaye noted.

He added that markets would welcome any hint of a cut, while firm resistance from Powell would likely weigh on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on news.ssbcrack.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.

 

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Bitcoin Still Speculative but Poised for Long-Term Gains

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Institutional adoption and policy push could fuel higher prices

Is it time to view bitcoin as a stock?

John Campbell of Allspring Global Investments and Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye discussed bitcoin’s evolving role in markets, with Essaye noting that while the cryptocurrency remains somewhat speculative in the short term, institutional adoption is accelerating.

Essaye highlighted growing integration of bitcoin into traditional finance and banking, alongside policy support from the administration, as bullish long-term drivers. “Is it short-term a little frothy? Sure,” he said, “but longer term there are some fundamental changes here that I think will send it much higher.”

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sector Winners from a Steepening Yield Curve

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sector Winners from a Steepening Yield Curve

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected tariff news overnight.

President Trump announced semiconductor chip tariffs but included broad exemptions that will dramatically lessen the practical impact of those tariffs.  Investors are now hopefully we’ll get a similar set up for pharma tariffs.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and the most important report today is Jobless Claims (E: 220K).  Given last Friday’s awful jobs report, if we see a jump in claims, it’ll increase concerns the labor market is weakening.  An in-line to slightly better than expected number would be the best case for markets this morning.

Other data today includes Productivity & Costs (E: 1.9%, 2.1%) and Consumer Credit (E: $7.5B) while we also have one Fed speaker, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), although those events are unlikely to move markets.

 

Markets Relieved as Powell Expected to Finish Fed Term

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Stability in Fed leadership reassures investors amid earnings season

S&P 500, Nasdaq end with record highs again. Dow jumps, too.

Markets showed signs of relief Friday as expectations solidified that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will finish his term, despite speculation around his potential replacement.

“Markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term,”
said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

With investor attention split between corporate earnings—highlighted by Intel’s results—and central bank leadership, Powell’s expected continuity is seen as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on July 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.