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Updated Market Outlook (Post Earnings, Trade Truce and Fed Decision)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook (Post Earnings, Trade Truce and Fed Decision)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Shutdown End This Week? (If Not, Possible Market Headwind)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM PMIs and ADP Are Important This Week

Futures are solidly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet weekend of news.

There was no disruptive news over the weekend so investors focused on the results of last week:  1) Continued AI Enthusiasm, 2) Trade truce and 3) Fed rate cut/end of QT.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs met expectations (50 and 49.7 respectively).

Today we do get some potentially important economic data via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.4) and markets will want to see stability (so not falling too far from 50).  On the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Daly (12:00 p.m. ET) and Cook (2:00 p.m. ET) and the more dovish their commentary, the better for markets (given recent uncertainty around a December rate cut).

Finally, on the earnings front, ON ($0.59), PLTR ($0.12) and two moderately important AI linked tech companies, so markets will want to see solid results from both.

 

Is It Too Late for a Trade Truce?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is It Too Late for a Trade Truce?
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About U.S./China trade)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly lower on digestion following Friday’s big rally, although there was also more soft economic data and a slightly negative U.S./China trade article.

German Manufacturers’ Orders missed expectations, falling -0.6% vs. (E) -0.4% and it’s yet another disappointing global manufacturing datapoint.

A Bloomberg article Sunday afternoon was a mild negative as it lowered expectations for a broad trade deal at this week’s talks, but there was no new news revealed.  To that point, we need to all brace for an avalanche of U.S./China trade headlines as we approach the Thursday start of senior-level talks, but cutting past the noise, the expectation is for a “Trade Truce” so anything that contradicts that expectation will be a negative for markets.

Today there is no notable economic data and two Fed speakers: Kashkari (10:20 a.m. ET) and Powell (1:00 p.m. ET).  Powell is clearly the more important of the two, but he’s giving opening remarks at a movie screening about the Fed (seriously) so I don’t think he’ll say anything market moving.

Can A Trade Truce Sustain New Highs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can a Trade Truce Sustain New Highs in Stocks?
  • What the Saudi Oil Attacks Mean for Oil Prices
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About the Fed)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly lower following attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure over the weekend.

Oil surged 10% overnight after half of Saudi oil production was taken offline following attacks this weekend, as higher oil prices and increased geo-political tensions (the U.S. & Saudi are blaming Iran) are pressuring futures.

Meanwhile, Chinese economic data was universally disappointing as Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production all missed estimates.  This is being somewhat ignored given the oil markets, but there remains little actual proof the Chinese economic has stabilized (and with the S&P 500 at 3000, that’s priced in).

Today focus will be on geo-politics and any further escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran will weigh on stocks.  Beyond the short term, barring a U.S./Iran conflict (which is still very unlikely) the net impact of this weekend’s news will be to strengthen the valuation “ceiling” at 17X 2020 S&P 500 EPS (so 3,026 in the S&P 500), as it’s hard to justify stocks above that level given elevated geo-political risks.

Economically, there’s only one notable number today, the September Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 4.9), and any evidence of stabilization in manufacturing will help stabilize stocks.