If the data meaningfully disappoints, especially in the service sector, expect more risk off money flows amid growing recession worries today, wrote Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
A further rise in claims could bring into question whether or not the labor market is suddenly beginning to deteriorate meaningfully, wrote Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, prior to the economic data release. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are tracking global equity markets lower this morning while longer duration bonds are rallying after soft PMI data in Europe bolstered recession fears overnight.
Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI Flash fell to 50.3 vs. (E) 52.5 indicating the EU economy is on the brink contracting.
The Manufacturing PMI was better than feared but the Services PMI dropped to 52.4 vs. (E) 54.7 pointing to a sudden slowdown in the service sector which accounts for the bulk of developed economic growth around the globe.
Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the U.S. PMI Flash data due out shortly after the bell with the Manufacturing PMI Flash expected to come in at 48.5 while the Services PMI Flash is expected at 53.5. If the data meaningfully disappoints, especially in the service sector, expect more risk off money flows amid growing recession worries today.
Finally, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Bostic (7:30 a.m. ET) and Mester (1:40 p.m. ET) but it is unlikely that either materially deviates from the Fed’s narrative from the last week which is continued commitment to reigning in inflation with further policy tightening in H2’23.
At that price, the S&P is aggressively pricing in a lot of good things occurring and virtually zero negative surprises, Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are falling with global markets and yields are rising this morning after more hawkish central bank decisions overnight as focus turns to the BOE.
In Europe, monetary policy decisions were net hawkish as Norway’s central bank raised rates 50 bp vs. (E) 25 bp to 3.75% while the Swiss National Bank met estimates with a 25 bp hike to 1.75%. The rate hikes are pressuring global bond markets (yields higher) and weighing on sentiment, dragging equity markets lower.
Looking into today’s session, early focus will be on the Bank of England as a 25 bp hike to 4.75% in the benchmark policy rate is expected but there is risk of a 50 bp hike to 5.00% which would be another hawkish surprise for markets and likely result in rising yields and more pressure on overbought equity markets.
In the U.S. there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 261K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.250M). A further rise in claims could bring into question whether or not the labor market is suddenly beginning to deteriorate meaningfully while strong housing data would warrant a hawkish reaction after the much better than expected Housing Starts print earlier this week.
From there, focus will turn to the Fed as Chair Powell continues his semi-annual Congressional testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET while Mester will speak around the same time (10:00 a.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 5-Yr TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could offer insight to inflation expectations and move yields, but most of the market-moving news will likely hit before the lunch hour today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week today with Asian markets underperforming as the latest Chinese stimulus efforts were seen as underwhelming while inflation trends in Europe remain favorable.
The PBOC lowered both the 1-Yr and 5-Yr prime loan rates by 10 bp overnight to 3.55% and 4.2%, respectively, but the cuts disappointed versus hopeful investor expectations given weak economic data lately, and markets traded with a risk-off tone in the wake of the announcements.
In Europe, German PPI fell to 1.0% vs. (E) 1.8% in May offering the latest evidence that the global disinflation trends remain intact.
Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.40M) which shouldn’t move markets, and only one Fed speaker: Williams (11:45 a.m. ET).
With stocks overextended by multiple measures right now, there will likely be some degree of digestion of the latest leg higher in equity markets now that the June Fed decision and Friday’s massive options expiration are behind us. With that in mind, focus will begin to shift to Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress which begins tomorrow as investors look for further insight to the Fed’s future policy plans.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat as yesterday’s rally is digested while global markets were mostly higher overnight thanks to continued optimism about AI focused investments and in-line inflation data in Europe.
ADBE shares were up as much as 4% in pre-market trading after strong earnings and AI-related guidance yesterday which is supporting mega-cap tech ahead of the open this morning.
The Narrow Core inflation reading within the Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 5.6% to 5.3% y/y in May, meeting estimates and offering further confirmation that the global disinflation trend has resumed.
Today, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak and just one economic report to watch: Consumer Sentiment (E: 60.5), but the consumer inflation expectations components within the release could move markets if they are meaningfully different from the previous release.
Finally, on a derivatives market note, today is a Quadruple Witching options expiration which means volumes will be elevated and volatility could potentially spike due to trader repositioning.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are lower as the Fed decision continues to be digested while global economic data largely missed expectations overnight.
Economically, Chinese data was universally disappointing with Industrial Production and Retail Sales both missing estimates while EU trade data showed that imports and exports both declined by more than anticipated. China’s central bank cut rates further overnight, however, which saw risk assets in Asia recover to end with gains.
Looking into today’s session, the ECB decision will be in focus this morning (E: +25bp hike) followed by President Lagarde’s press conference. If the ECB is seen as hawkish, it will likely weigh on stocks and other risk assets as it will show central bankers are not yet satisfied with the trends in inflation and more aggressive policy is likely in the months ahead.
In the U.S., there is a slew of economic data due to be released including: Jobless Claims (E: 250K), Retail Sales (E: 0.0%), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -13.2), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -15.1), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.6%, -0.5%), and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).
And with the Fed leaving future policy plans largely “open” and dependent on economic data, the market will want to see more “Goldilocks” trends with slowing growth and a more rapid decline in price readings.
Sevens Report Alpha: Artificial Intelligence Issue
This week’s Alpha issue focused on a very popular market topic: Artificial Intelligence.
This issue was an update to a March 7th Alpha issue on AI, and the three ETFs we profiled in that report have risen 20%, 17%, and 14%, respectively in just three months!
This week’s AI issue updated and expanded that research as we:
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following a quiet night of news as markets look ahead to the FOMC decision and expected pause in rate hikes.
Economic data was mixed overnight as UK Industrial Production missed estimates (-0.3% vs. (E) -0.1% in manufacturing) while Euro Zone IP slightly beat (1.0% vs. (E) 0.9%), but neither number is moving markets.
Today focus will be on the FOMC Decision and the consensus expectation is that the Fed will pause. But, it’s not clear how many additional 2023 rate hikes the “dots” will show, and that will determine if the Fed decision is hawkish or dovish (more on that inside).
Away from the Fed we also get the May PPI (E: -0.1% m/m, 1.6% y/y) and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and if this metric comes in under expectations that’ll boost the “Immaculate Disinflation” expectation and should help cyclical sectors extend the rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed despite solid tech earnings and more Chinese stimulus, as markets await the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
ORCL posted solid earnings and rallied 5% overnight and that’s adding to overall tech and market momentum.
Chinese authorities cut the reverse repo rate to 1.9% from 2.0%, and that move increased market expectations for future additional stimulus.
Today focus will be on the CPI report and expectations are as follows: 0.2% m/m, 4.1% y/y, Core CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y). Additionally, “Super Core” CPI (which is core CPI less housing) will also be in focus and markets will want to see a drop to (or ideally below) 5.2% y/y.
Bottom line, markets need CPI to confirm accelerating disinflation to continue to rally, while a sticky inflation number will result in real market disappointment (although the looming FOMC decision should keep any market moves more muted than they otherwise would have been).