Oil traded lower into the weekend, but the pace of declines “slowed as WTI approached technical support between $70 and $72,” said analysts at Sevens Report Research in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures little changed following a quiet night of news as investors further digest Wednesday’s big rally in stocks and Thursday’s big rally in bonds all while awaiting today’s jobs report.
Economically, the only notable number overnight was Euro Zone PPI which fell more than expected (-2.9% vs. (E) -2.0%), adding to this week’s list of indicators showing global dis-inflation.
Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 200K, UR Rate 3.7%, Wages 0.3% m/m 4.6% y/y. Due to the big rally in stocks and bonds on Wed/Thurs, a lot of the “benefit” from a “Just Right” number is likely priced in at these levels, so the risk going into the report today is for disappointment, especially if we get a job adds number in the mid to high 200k.
Away from the jobs report, we also get two Fed speakers: Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET) and Evans (10:15 a.m., 1:00 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly higher and Treasury yields are largely steady ahead of today’s midterm elections.
Economically, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 91.3 vs. (E) 91.8 while Eurozone Retail Sales met estimates at 0.4% but neither release is materially impacting markets this morning.
There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
In Monday’s Sevens Report we incorrectly said CPI was to be released on Wednesday but the report is due out on Thursday. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
Bottom line, focus will be on the midterms today which will likely result in a mostly quiet session, however, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could cause a move in yields and ultimately impact trading in equities.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures and European equities are solidly higher this morning while bond yields continue to pull back with the dollar amid renewed hopes of a “less-hawkish pivot” by global central banks.
The RBA was seen as dovish overnight, raising their policy rate by 25 basis points vs. (E) 50 bp which is helping pressure global bond yields and support continued risk-on money flows this morning.
Economically, EU PPI rose to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9% in August but the fact that the print was not a “hotter” surprise is also adding a tailwind to global equities this morning.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Factory Orders (E: 0.2%) and JOLTS (11.150M) and multiple Fed officials speaking: Williams (9:00 a.m. ET), Logan (9:00 a.m. ET), Mester (9:15 a.m. ET), Jefferson (11:45 a.m. ET), and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET).
As long as the pullback in bond yields and the dollar continue over the course of the day, stocks should be able to extend yesterday’s gains however the pace of the early quarter rebound has approached an unsustainable level and at some point, we will need to see some consolidation across asset classes.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher following better-than-expected economic data and as markets continue to recoup Monday’s declines ahead of the Powell speech tomorrow.
Economic data was better than expected overnight as German GDP beat estimates (1.8% vs. (E) 1.4%) as did the IFO Business Expectations survey (80.3 vs. (E) 78.8).
On the Fed front, Bostic said the September rate hike was a 50/50 proposition between 50 bps or 75 bps, and that’s largely in line with market expectations.
Today’s focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 255k) and Revised Q2 GDP (E: -0.9%) and markets will want to see a continued slow rise in jobless claims and a stable GDP report (so not materially worse than expected).
Additionally, while the official Fed speaker calendar doesn’t have any events today, we should prepare for a deluge of Fed commentary via the financial media (CNBC, FT, WSJ, Marketwatch, etc.) as the Jackson Hole conference begins. Barring any major surprise commentary, though, markets should look past Fed speak today and focus on Powell’s speech tomorrow.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are steady this morning as this week’s rise in both the dollar and bond yields has paused while economic data in Europe was better than feared
Economically, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was 49.7 vs. (E) 49.0 and the Services PMI came in at 50.2 vs. (E) 49.0 which is helping ease some stagflation concerns after last week’s soft growth numbers yet stubbornly high inflation across Europe.
Looking into today’s session, the focus will be on economic data early, specifically, the PMI Composite Flash (E: 49.2) as investors will want to continue to see steady moderation and evidence of slowing growth but not an all-out crash in the data either. New Home Sales (E: 575K) will also be released shortly after the open.
Outside of the data, there is one Fed speaker on the calendar: Kashkari, but not until after the close (7:00 p.m. ET) while there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields.
Bottom line, news flow has not been decidedly negative over the last few sessions and the pullback in stocks has been largely driven by the rally in the dollar and rising bond yields. So if we can see those two markets stabilize, equities should be able to stabilize today as well, especially with the S&P into solid technical support, however, if the dollar and yields both grind higher, expect further volatility in the stock market ahead of Jackson Hole.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following mixed economic data and after a WSJ article warned the market was underestimating Fed conviction on rate hikes.
Economically, German PPI surged 37.2% vs. (E) 30.9% y/y on exploding electricity costs while UK Retail Sales fell –3.4% vs. (E) -3.3%. Both numbers highlight the economic challenges facing the EU and UK.
A WSJ article warned of a “reckoning” for stocks as markets think the Fed is bluffing about further hikes and that’s weighing on sentiment this morning.
Today there are no notable economic reports but there is one Fed speaker, Barkin at 9:00 a.m. ET, and if he echoes this disconnect between Fed intentions and market expectations for rates, that will further pressure stocks today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a busy night of mixed earnings reports and ahead of today’s ECB decision.
Politically, Italian PM Draghi formally resigned and there will be elections in Italy this fall, which is adding to general macro-economic uncertainty.
Earnings overnight were mixed although TSLA posted solid results and the stock rallied 3% after hours.
Today will be a busy day for economic data and earnings and the key event is the ECB Decision. A 25 bps hike is expected although a 50 bps hike is very possible. From a stock standpoint, markets will be hoping for a 50 bps hike because that will boost the euro and weigh on the dollar (the dollar being this high is a problem for U.S. corporate earnings). Outside of the ECB we also get Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and Philadelphia Fed (E: -3.3).
On the earnings front, results continue to roll in and so far this season they are decidedly mixed (not good, but not materially worse than feared, either). Some results we’re watching today include: T ($0.59), FCX ($0.80), UNP ($2.38), COF ($5.09).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are higher this morning despite soft earnings from IBM after the close yesterday as European inflation data was not as bad as feared in June.
Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates with a rise of 8.6% Y/Y in June up from 8.1% in May, however, the core figure slipped to 3.7% Y/Y from 3.8% in May. The release has prompted new bets for a 50 bp hike from the ECB this week, but that is bolstering hopes that peak inflation will come sooner than later.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.588) and after yesterday’s terrible Housing Market Index print, investors will want to see a number more in line with expectations that does not point to such a rapid deterioration in the real estate market.
There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today which will leave traders largely focused on earnings with: JNJ ($2.57), HAL ($0.45), LMT ($6.29), ALLY ($1.90), and TFC ($1.17) reporting before the bell, and NFLX ($2.90) and JBHT ($2.31) releasing results after the close.
Bottom line, the broader equity market remains at a key tipping point right now as recession fears continue to simmer, but earnings have so far been mostly upbeat suggesting there is still a path to a soft landing. And if earnings news is upbeat today, we could see the S&P 500 breakout through key downtrend resistance near 3,890 and make a run at new multi-week highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower this morning after a quiet night of news as yesterday’s big intraday reversal higher is being digested.
Today is lining up to be a busy one with a slew of economic data due to be released, in order of importance: Durable Goods (E: 1.0%), Consumer Confidence (E: 106.8), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.5%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.6%), and New Home Sales (E: 772K). Investors will want to see solid data that contradicts the growing fear that the Fed is getting more aggressive with policy into an economic slowdown.
There are no Fed speakers today but there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move the bond market and ultimately impact stocks in the early afternoon.
The market’s main focus today will be on earnings with: UPS ($2.87), PEP ($1.24), GE ($0.20), MMM ($2.33), and JBLU (-$0.85) reporting ahead of the bell while MSFT ($2.18), GOOGL ($25.63), GM ($1.57), V ($1.65), and COF ($5.39) are all scheduled to release results after the close.
Bottom line, for yesterday’s late day reversal higher in equity markets to continue today, we need to see good economic data, steady or falling bond yields, and most importantly favorable earnings, especially out of big tech names like GOOGL and MSFT.