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Technical Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Update
  • Economic Data Recap
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

US futures are down roughly 0.5% this morning thanks to soft earnings after the close yesterday, most notably by NVDA (the company’s shares fell nearly 20% overnight). Otherwise it was a relatively quiet night of news.

Oil is up over 1% this morning on optimism surrounding a potential OPEC-cut, but serious technical damage has been done on the charts this week, and right now, the medium term outlook is neutral at best for energy.

Economically, the only data point released overnight was Eurozone HICP which matched estimates at 2.2% y/y and is not materially affecting the euro or longer term outlook for the ECB.

Today, there is one important economic report to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and two Fed speakers: Clarida before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) and Evans just before lunch (11:30 a.m. ET).

Otherwise, focus will be on tech shares today as if the bad earnings from NVDA weigh on the sector more broadly, then stocks will have a hard time extending yesterday’s bounce.

On the charts, yesterday’s close of 2730 in the S&P is an important level to watch as a close above would be a positive development for the near term technical outlook.

Technical Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Technical Update (Three Support Levels for the S&P 500 and a Line in the Sand for the VIX)

Futures are slightly higher thanks to a rally in Asian markets following mixed Chinese economic data.

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (5.4% vs. (E) 5.3%) and Retail Sales (9.2% vs. (E) 9.1%) beat estimates, while GDP (6.5% vs. (E) 6.6%) and Industrial Production (5.8% vs. (E) 6.0%)  missed.  But, commentary from Chinese officials raised hopes of more economic stimulus and Chinese markets rallied more than 1%.

Today there is one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 5.30M) and two Fed speakers: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and Kaplan (12:45 p.m. ET), but focus will remain on earnings (which were “ok” overnight and this morning as AXP, PYPL and HON beat) and Italy.  If there’s further deterioration in the Italy/EU situation, stocks will come under pressure once again.

Tom’s Take on the Tech Weakness on Seeking Alpha, September 6, 2018

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stock market update

“Yesterday’s tech weakness, even if it just part of a healthy pullback in an extended sector, does set up a potential danger spot for stocks over the coming days,” says Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report, noting tech has powered stock gains this year even in the face of trade uncertainty.

Read the full article here.