Posts

Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs

/in , /by

Financial Sense Newshour preview

Are Markets Ignoring Warning Signs? Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs (Preview)

Markets appear upbeat—but could they be overlooking brewing risks? In this preview from Financial Sense Newshour (FS Insider), Sevens Report President Tom Essaye explores the tension between bullish sentiment and fragile economic signals.

Essaye discusses how investor optimism is colliding with warning signs around economic growth, Federal Reserve positioning, and trade policy uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on August 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How To Navigate An “AI Bubble” (If One Exists)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How To Navigate An “AI Bubble” (If One Exists)

Futures are sharply lower following sweeping tariff announcements by the administration overnight.

The Trump administration made numerous reciprocal tariff announcements and while the vast majority of them were previously reported, the sheer volume of tariffs is weighing on sentiment.

Focus today will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and ISM Manufacturing PMIs.  Expectations for the jobs report are: 110K Job-Adds, 4.2% UE Rate and 3.7% y/y Wages) while the ISM Manufacturing Index expectation is 49.5.

Given the early, tariff related weakness in stocks, a “Too Cold” jobs report or ISM Manufacturing PMI could accelerate the selling as they would compound worries that high tariffs will hurt future growth.  So, solid numbers from both are needed to push back on this morning’s tariff anxiety.

Finally, on earnings, today is the last meaningful day and some reports we’re watching include: BRK.B ($5.24), XOM ($1.49), CVX ($1.66), D ($0.69), CL ($0.89), KMB ($1.68).

 

What Could Go Wrong? (Four Candidates)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong?  (Four Candidates)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Busy and Important Week of Fed Decisions, Earnings and Economic Data
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report and ISM Manufacturing PMIs Friday Are the Highlights

Futures are modestly higher on the announcement of a U.S./EU trade deal and further delay in tariff increases for China.

The U.S. and EU agreed to a trade deal this week with details that are largely in-line with market expectations at the end of last week.

The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day extension of their tariff pause to continue to work on a larger trade deal.

This will be a busy and important week from an economic standpoint, but it starts quietly as there are no reports today.

Similarly on earnings, this is the most important week of the year with earnings looming from major tech firms (MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN) but it starts quietly.  Some reports we’re watching today include: WM ($1.88), WHR ($1.54), WELL ($1.22).

 

Stock Rally Builds on Optimism for U.S.-EU Trade Breakthrough

/in , /by

Sevens Report sees momentum from Japan deal

Stock Rally Builds on Hopes for US-EU Trade Deal: Markets Wrap

U.S. stocks extended gains as investors grew hopeful about a potential U.S.-EU trade deal following a successful agreement with Japan.

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.
“The Japan deal raises hopes a similar EU deal can be struck before next Friday.”

Markets continue to ride positive sentiment around trade progress and corporate earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

S&P 500 Posts Weekly Gain as Markets Eye Trade, Earnings

/in , /by

Sevens Report highlights focus on Japan deal and earnings outlook

US Stocks End Little Changed With S&P 500 Notching Weekly Gain

MARKET STAYS FLAT — BUT GAINS HOLD

U.S. stocks ended little changed Friday, with the S&P 500 securing a weekly gain as traders look ahead to trade negotiations and earnings.

Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report notes:

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings. The Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”

Despite geopolitical noise and inflation concerns earlier in the week, markets have stayed resilient — for now.

Next catalysts: corporate earnings season and potential EU trade developments.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

S&P 500 Logs Weekly Gain as Resilient Spending Supports Rally

/in , /by

Sevens Report points to tariffs and solid consumer demand

A Steady Rise in U.S. Stocks Leads to the S&P 500 Weekly Gains

U.S. stocks ticked higher Friday, helping the S&P 500 post another weekly gain as investors digested earnings, Fed commentary, and tariff effects.

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report noted:

“Some weakness is appearing in import-sensitive industries, possibly tied to tariffs, but overall consumer spending remains solid.”

That consumer strength is fueling the soft-landing narrative, keeping U.S. equities near all-time highs in 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Analogies to Explain Tariffs to Clients
  • Weekly Market Preview:  How Does Iran Respond? (And Does That Increase Worries About the Conflict Spreading?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Important Growth Data This Week

Futures are slightly higher despite an increase in geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

The U.S. attacked and destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. But, despite ominous headlines, we are not seeing an increase in oil prices or geopolitical tensions in the markets as fears of the conflict spreading remain low.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and specifically how Iran responds to the direct U.S. attack.  Despite the headlines about this event, from a market standpoint, unless investors fear the conflict will spread and engulf the entire region and dramatically reduce oil supplies, then rising geopolitical tensions won’t be a material negative on this market.

Economically, there are two notable reports today: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.1) and the Flash Services PMI (E: 52.9) and markets will want to see stability in both to push back on slowdown fears. On the Fed front, there are multiple speakers today including Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:10 p.m. ET), Kugler & Williams (2:30 p.m. ET). But, with Powell’s testimony before Congress starting tomorrow, these speakers shouldn’t move markets.

Trump pushes back on characterization of ‘TACO’ strategy: ‘It’s called negotiation’

/in , /by

President Donald Trump pushed back on Wednesday on the characterization of his tariff policy as “chickening out” after he announced and then paused tariffs on other countries multiple times.

Trump objected to the description when asked by a reporter, saying it was part of his wider strategy.

Announcements of trade deals, tariff deadline extensions, and the lowering of tariffs all helped contribute to a market revival after an initial crash. The market has now regained most of its value, partially due to the TACO strategy.

“So, the returns are somewhat conclusive: The TACO trade has worked and buying stocks on extreme tariff-related threats has worked,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said, according to Market Watch. To read the full piece on Washington Examiner, from May 28, 2025, click here.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.

 

The TACO trade is the new Trump trade. Here’s what to know about the meme ruling the stock market.

/in , /by
  • A new acronym is making its rounds on Wall Street: TACO
  • “Trump Always Chickens Out” refers to markets betting on Trump walking back tariff proposals.
  • Trump called the TACO moniker “nasty” when asked about it on Wednesday.

With TACO, investors have a new guiding principle.

“Buy the Trump tariff dip. Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote on Wednesday. “As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Retail investors have adopted the strategy, with dip-buying at historic levels recently. But how long the TACO trade will remain effective depends on what happens after the tariff delays unwind over the summer.

Click here to view the full article in MSN.com from May 29, 2025.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.

Trump Branded With Embarrassing Nickname Over Tariff Confusion

/in , /by

Wall Street is beginning to understand the president’s roller-coaster foreign trade decisions with the help of a trendy acronym: TACO—or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The TACO theory was coined earlier this month by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, adding a catchy name to the practice of loading up on stocks when Donald Trump first announces the tariffs and then selling when he ultimately backtracks on enforcing them.

In a Wednesday note obtained by Market Watch, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye insisted that Trump does, in fact, always chicken out. So far, that’s been true for enacting additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, postponing his “reciprocal” tariff plan on dozens of countries after his “Liberation Day” announcement went south, delaying a tariff on imports from the European Union, and smashing his plan to fine China, temporarily decreasing tariffs on Chinese products to 30 percent from 145 percent. Click here to view the full article in The New Republic on May 28, 2025.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.