Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 31, 2019.
Investors have to consider what Tom Essaye calls the “worst case scenario.” In this case, the governments of Mexico and China decide to wait until the next election…click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 31, 2019. A lot of important topics to talk about lately. Watch the full video here.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet three day weekend, as investors digest last week’s deterioration in economic data and U.S.-China trade relations.
Economic data was sparse overnight and the only notable report was German GfK Consumer Climate, which slightly missed expectations (10.1 vs. (E ) 10.4). There was no material economic data out Monday.
On trade, Trump’s trip to Japan was a general non-event and there were no new developments (positive or negative) on U.S.-China trade.
Today we have a few housing numbers including Cash-Shiller HPI (E: 2.5% y/y) and FHFA HPI (E: 0.3% m/m) as well as Consumer Confidence (E: 129.8), but none of those should move markets materially.
Instead, focus will be on the news wires for any updates on U.S. – China trade and on support in the S&P 500 at 2800, which is becoming an increasingly important level.
Tom Essaye was quoted in Markets Insider on May 15, 2019. The red metal has been the “single-best leading indicator for stocks over the past 18 months,” and is flashing a warning sign for…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are decidedly in the red again this morning tracking Chinese shares lower as trade tensions continue to dominate global markets.
There were however, no notable trade developments overnight.
Economically, Chinese Imports rose 4.0% vs. (E) -0.4% while German Industrial Production rose 0.5% vs. (E) -0.5%, both of which were incremental, macro positives.
Today, there are no economic reports due to be released but the Fed’s Brainard speaks at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the EIA will release weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET which could move energy markets and, in turn, influence stocks.
Additionally, there is a 10 Yr. T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if high demand pressures yields to new lows for the week, expect that to become another headwind on stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading lower by 0.50% this morning as trade tensions escalated further late Monday with several U.S. trade officials confirming plans to hike tariffs Friday.
Overnight, it was reported that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He would still come to the U.S for negotiations this week but for just 2 days rather than the originally planned 4 which was seen as an incremental negative.
Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 0.6% vs. (E) 1.0% in March which weighed modestly on EU shares.
Looking into today’s session, trade news will still dominate the markets however there are a few other catalyst to watch including March JOLTS data (E 7.215M) and one Fed speaker: Kaplan (7:00 a.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are tentatively bouncing from yesterday’s late sell off as markets digest an imminent U.S./China trade deal, mixed economic data and the Fed meeting.
Multiple press reports yesterday implied a U.S./China trade deal could be completed next Friday, with the 10% tariffs on 250B in goods immediately reduced. This meets current market expectations and is already priced in, so there was no rally on the news.
Economic data met low expectations overnight as the EU Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 47.9 vs. (E) 47.8, but that’s not moving markets.
Today we get a few notable economic reports via Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Productivity and Costs (E: 1.9%, 1.8%) and Factory Orders (E: 1.5%), but none of those should move markets. Instead, with no major events scheduled for today, traders will be focused on whether the S&P 500 can hold yesterday’s low (2923). If that support is fails than look for selling to accelerate.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat as yesterday’s melt-up rally to new all-time closing highs in the U.S. is digested while overseas markets were mixed amid underwhelming economic data.
The German Ifo Survey for April missed on both the Economic Sentiment and Current Conditions components but slightly beat on Business Expectations. On balance the report validates ongoing concerns about the EU economy.
There are no economic reports due out in the U.S. today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which will leave investors focused on the busy earnings calendar this week.
Notable earnings releases today include: BA ($3.11), CAT ($2.84) and T ($0.85) before the open, and FB ($1.65), MSFT ($1.00), PYPL ($0.67) and V ($1.24) after the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning after a quiet night of news. There were no economic releases overnight leaving investor focus primarily on earnings.
Oil is notably hitting fresh 2019 highs this morning which should continue to drive outperformance in the energy sector today.
Looking to the calendar for today, there is one economic report due out of Europe: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash (E: -6.9) and two reports on the U.S. housing market: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%) and New Home Sales (E: 645K). There are no Fed speakers today.
Additionally, price action in stocks has been especially sensitive to the bond market since the March Fed meeting and while volatility has eased in both markets, there is a 2 Year Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets.
Investors’ primary focus however will remain on earnings. Some notable releases today include: TWTR ($0.15), KO ($0.46), PG ($1.04), SNAP ($0.12), and EBAY ($0.63).
“We need global growth to stabilize to help propel stocks higher from here. The currency and bond markets continue to flash large and…” Click here to read the full article.