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A True Curve Inversion

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When Is a Yield Curve Inversion Truly a Negative Signal
  • Consumer Confidence Takeaways (Hawkish Risks)

It is another quiet morning with mixed price action as stock futures edged higher on positive Italian political headlines while Treasury yields extend recent losses despite the lack of any material economic releases or trade headlines.

In the bond market, the benchmark 10s-2s yield curve spread hit a fresh 12 year low below -5 basis points this morning while the 30-Year yield has hit a new record low, signaling more broad market angst by the “smart market.”

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports although the EIA will release weekly oil and refined product inventory statistics at 10:30 a.m. ET and after last night’s 11.1M bbl draw reported by the API, we could see significant moves in the oil market today and that could affect stocks.

As far as other catalysts go, there is one Fed speaker today: Daly but not until after the closing bell (5:30 p.m. ET) while there is also a 5-Year T-Note Auction (1:00 p.m. ET) which could move yields and ultimately stocks.

Lastly, U.S.-China trade talks were scheduled for the front half of this week and so far there has not been any news on the topic. But, investors will continue to wait for any new developments on the trade war front as it is the primary influence on global markets right now.

What’s Next for U.S.-China Trade?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Next for U.S.-China Trade?
  • Durable Goods Report Takeaways

It’s a mixed morning in the global financial markets as equity indexes are largely directionless while safe-haven assets have a mild bid after a mostly quiet night of news.

Longer duration Treasuries are outperforming so far today which is resulting in the 10s-2s Treasury yield spread inverting to new cycle lows, below –2 basis points as of this writing.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits rose +2.6% in July from –2.4% in June while Q2 German GDP met estimates at +0.4% year/year, but neither release materially moved markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed speakers, but several economic reports to watch: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 2.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 130.0).

There is also a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction today (1:00 p.m. ET) and if demand is soft (so yields rise), it could further invert the yield curve and cause another wave of recession fears as we saw earlier this month.

Lastly, another round of U.S. – China trade talks were scheduled for today although there have been no updates on the topic. So any positive news regarding those talks will be well received by investors, while if they end up not actually taking place, that will weigh on stocks and other risk assets today.

Is the Trade War A Bearish Gamechanger Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About U.S./China Trade)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are modestly higher after positive U.S./China trade comments by President Trump.

Trump stated early this morning that China “called” and conveyed a desire to get back to the negotiating table.

It’s unclear exactly what Trump means (Chinese officials say no call has happened between the U.S. and China today) but the generally optimistic tone is helping to reverse some of Friday’s declines.

Today any U.S./China trade-related headlines will move markets but it’ll take more than just vague commentary by officials to undo the damage done to markets and investors’ psyches on Friday.

Economically, Durable Goods (E: 1.1%) will be released later this morning and it’s an important number, as any potential economic slowdown will emanate from reduced business spending and investment.  The bottom line, a solid number here will help economic sentiment.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on August 22, 2019

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8 of the Best Investments During an Economic Slowdown

Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report newsletter, says he favors being conservative with tactical investments at this time. Real estate can be a solid holding in the current…click here to read the full article.

Rising Chances of a True Yield Curve Inversion

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Minutes Takeaway – Increased Chances of a True Inversion
  • EIA/Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest yesterday’s “not dovish” FOMC Minutes, another temporary yield curve inversion, and mixed economic data.

Global flash PMIs were better than expected but still remained below 50 (so still signaling contracting activity).  The EU flash PMI rose to 47.0 vs. (E) 46.2.

The 10’s-2’s Treasury yield spread temporarily inverted again on Wednesday but currently sits at +2 bps.

Today focus will be on the August Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.9) and as has been the case lately, a good number will be good for stocks.  We also get Jobless Claims (E: 215K) this morning.

Bottom line, bond yields should continue to lead stocks.  If the flash PMI is solid and yields rally, so can stocks, and if the PMI is soft and yields drop, then so will stocks.

Progress on U.S./China Trade?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview (This Week is More Important Than It Might Seem)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (All About Growth)

Futures are solidly higher again as the Commerce Department extended Huawei waivers for 90 days, which is a mild positive in the U.S./China trade situation.

There were a lot of trade-related headlines out over the weekend (and some of them were conflicting) but the net/net is that tensions appear to be receding somewhat, which is helping to support an extension of Friday’s rally.

The only notable economic report was Japanese exports, which met expectations at –1.6% m/m and isn’t moving markets.

There are no economic reports today and no Fed speakers, so focus will be on any trade-related headlines and while we’re sure to get conflicting messages via twitter and other mediums, the bottom line is that tensions appear to be receding – which is positive for stocks.

Looking forward to this week, it’s an important one.  Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, combined with FOMC Minutes Wednesday and the global flash PMIs will give us important updated insight into 1) Whether central banks are going to try and correct the hawkish disappointments from July, and 2) If global growth is trying to stabilize.  If the answer is “yes” to both, then stocks can extend the rally.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Benzinga on August 14, 2019

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“So, while the inversion is certainly a disconcerting signal over the medium and longer-term, it’s not a signal to necessarily ‘sell now,’ because a lot can happen between now and six months or more…” wrote Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on August 15, 2019

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“The yield curve inverted which created a temporary ‘pile on’ effect in the bond markets. We have absolutely not seen what we wanted to out of the Fed. We had hoped for a rally in the 10-year yield…” wrote Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

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Why the Falling Yuan Isn’t That Big of a Threat

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why The Falling Yuan Isn’t That Big of a Threat

Futures are solidly higher thanks to continued momentum following Thursday’s positive close.

Stocks were short term oversold and due for a bounce, but if there’s a “reason” behind the early rally it was a Washington Post article stating the Trump administration is getting concerned about future economic growth, which might lead to a trade deal.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today the calendar is more quiet as we only have two economic reports, Housing Starts (E: 1.260M) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 97.5).  But, the Huawei waiver deadline is Monday the 19th so if there are going to be waivers given, it could happen literally at any minute (generous waivers will supercharge today’s early rally if they come).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Diario Financiero on August 14, 2019

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“Historically speaking the inversion of that benchmark yield curve measure means that we now must expect a recession anywhere…” said Tom Essaye in a note on Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.

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