The Russia/Ukraine situation remains very fluid, and tensions remain high, and in the short term that will remain a headwind on stocks…Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report told CNBC Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.
Yesterday’s FOMC decision and Powell’s presser was both positive and negative for markets, but in the end, it mostly reinforced what we know: The Fed is serious about raising rates, that’s going to continue to…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note to clients Thursday, as reported by CNBC. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower but that’s not that bad considering Thursday’s ugly close and the soft NFLX earnings overnight.
Earnings were generally underwhelming, highlighted by the soft NFLX guidance which sent the stock down 20% after hours. But, PPG and CSX also cited higher costs as impacting profitability, furthering margin concerns.
UK Retail Sales was the only notable economic number, and it missed estimates (-0.9% vs. (E) 3.4%).
Today there are no economic reports and just two notable earnings announcements, SLB ($ $0.39) and ALLY ($2.01), but they shouldn’t move markets. Instead, it’s all about tech. If tech can stabilize today, then markets can bounce (possibly into the Fed meeting next week).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are sharply lower today as global bond yields surge to multiyear highs on tighter monetary policy expectations.
The 2-Yr T-Note yield topped 1% this morning with a rise of 7 basis points which is weighing on high valuation tech names, sending Nasdaq futures down roughly 2%.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 26.0) and the Housing Market Index (E: 84). The market will be looking for decent numbers that don’t imply the recovery is losing momentum but not data that is “too hot” and could cause further rate hike fears. There are no Fed speakers today.
The Treasury will hold auctions for both 3-month and 6-month T-Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET today which typically does not warrant much attention, but given the increasing concerns about rate hikes this morning, the outcomes of the auctions could shed additional light on bond traders’ rate outlook and therefore move markets (soft auctions and a further rise in yields would be a stiffening headwind on tech stocks).
Finally, earning season is continuing to get underway with a few notable companies releasing results: GS ($12.10), PNC ($3.61), JBHT ($1.99).
Bottom line, the outlook is positive for stocks, but the removal of stimulus…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Initially, the stock market took the jobs report as good news. Any result above 200,000 but not wildly above expectations..wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
That’s a set up where stocks can continue to rally, although I think we all need…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are down more than 1%, tracking global equities lower while the 10-year yield is down more than 10 basis points on renewed omicron variant concerns.
In an interview with the FT, MRNA’s CEO said the scientists he had spoken with expect a material decline in the efficacy of current vaccines against the new omicron variant of the coronavirus due to the high number of mutations and that is weighing heavily on risk assets this morning.
Today, there are a few economic reports due out: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 110.7), but all of the data was gathered well before the omicron news emerged and therefore will not have a major impact on markets given the keen focus on COVID in recent days.
Fed Chair Powell will join Treasury Secretary Yellen in testifying before the Senate this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET and any indication that the Fed may change course regarding policy plans as a result of omicron could move markets. There is one other Fed speaker today: Williams (10:30 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, this is once again a COVID-driven market and any negative headlines about vaccine effectiveness or the severity of omicron infections could cause more risk off money flows as the odds of new lockdowns in parts of the world would rise as a result.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet weekend outside of the passage of the physical infrastructure bill.
On Friday the House passed the physical infrastructure bill but it’s only $550 billion of new spending over 10 years, and that’s not going to have a big impact on the economy.
The broader $1.75 trillion spending bill remains under debate as Democrat infighting continues, but a deal is expected by year-end.
Today there are no economic reports, but there are numerous Fed speakers and the market will be looking for insight into the possibility of an accelerated taper beyond December. Powell (10:30 a.m.) is the headliner today but he’s only making opening remarks and shouldn’t offer any insights on policy. Vice Chair Clarida (9:00 a.m.) will speak on policy, so his interview is probably the most important one to watch today. Other Fed speakers include Montgomery (10:00 a.m.), Harker (12:00 p.m.) and Evans (1:50 p.m.) but they shouldn’t move markets.
The issues that caused the pullback have quieted over the past two weeks, which has…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
