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Are Things Really this Bad?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: Are Things Really this Bad?
  • The Oil Price War Explained

U.S. equity index futures up well over 4% in early trade this morning as investors bet on government stimulus efforts to ease the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.

President Trump and VP Pence announced “very dramatic actions to support the economy” in a press conference late on Tuesday which triggered broad risk-on money flows.

Economically, Q4 Eurozone GDP was 1.0% vs. (E) 0.9%, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 104.5 vs. (E) 103.7 in February; both are helping investor sentiment today.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers however price action is expected to remain volatile amid the uncertainties related to the coronavirus outbreak.

Any positive news regarding U.S. government stimulus measures could help sustain this pre-market rebound in stocks while, if the accommodating measures are underwhelming or there is any incrementally negative news regarding the outbreak statistics, it could rekindle fear among investors and see stocks pullback towards yesterday’s trading range.

More Volatility

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Drove Yesterday’s Selling (There’s a New Market Worry)
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)
  • OPEC + Update

It’s another ugly morning as futures are down sharply on the same issue as Thursday: The growing spread of the coronavirus and fears of a larger economic slowdown.

There was no notable, new news overnight, but the virus continues to spread in the U.S. and the number cancelled travel plans and conferences/events continues to grow.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 5.5% vs. (E) 1.5%, although economic data is being ignored by markets right now (data this week has been better than feared).

Today the key is the jobs report, and the expectations are:  Jobs: 175K, UE Rate:  3.6%, Wages:  0.3%/3.0%.  A strong jobs report won’t arrest the coronavirus declines (the data will be viewed as dated) but a bad jobs report will make things worse, so we need to see a solid print this morning.

There are also multiple Fed speakers today, and while the market is increasingly expecting 0% rates and potentially QE (seriously), none of the speakers today are leadership so they shouldn’t shed any additional light on those topics.  Today’s lineup includes:  Evans & Mester (9:20 a.m. ET), Bullard (11:20 a.m. ET), Williams & Rosengren (2:00 p.m. ET), George (3:30 p.m. ET).

What to Make of Yesterday’s Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Make of Yesterday’s Rally
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA/Oil Update (Will An OPEC Production Cut Help?)

Futures are sharply lower and they are giving back more than half of yesterday’s rally as coronavirus continues to spread throughout the U.S.  Clearly some of this morning’s decline is just normal give back from yesterday’s explosive rally, although economic fears are continuing to mount as the number of cancelled events, gatherings and conferences continues to rise.

There are now 160 coronavirus cases in the U.S. as California declared a state of emergency while another cruise ship is being held at sea due to fears of an outbreak.  But, the news wasn’t all bad as there were just 160 new coronavirus cases in China, and evidence continues to mount that Chinese officials are getting the spread of the disease under control.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

Coronavirus headlines will continue to drive trading, and broadly speaking anyreports of U.S. or global economic stimulus will be a tailwind on stocks, while any reports of an acceleration of the spread will obviously be a headwind.

Outside of coronavirus, there is just one economic report, Jobless Claims (E: 215K), but we’ll be watching this closely because it’s the best real time indicator of the labor market we have.  If claims rise (say above 230k) that will fan fears of an economic fallout from coronavirus.  Outside of the jobs report we also get multiple Fed speakers (Kaplan (6:30 p.m. ET), Kashkari (8:00 p.m. ET) and Williams (E: 8:45 p.m. ET)) but none of them should move markets.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on March 3, 2020

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said Friday that another rate cut might be a bearish signal for the economy.

“While this is a fairly unique situation that the markets have rarely seen in the past, especially in the age of high-frequency trading houses and 24 hour, instant news sources, if the Fed does indeed cut rates in the coming months as the markets are pricing in…” Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on March 3, 2020

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Tom Essaye, The Sevens Report: “There is no question that growth and earnings will be lower in the coming months, and while we saw some pretty significant cuts to expected S&P 500 2020 earnings…” Click here to read the full article.

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What Does the Rate Cut Mean for Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does the Fed Rate Cut Mean for Markets?
  • Which Market Sectors Benefit from the Rate Cut?
  • FOMC Decision Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher as Biden, the more business and market friendly Democratic candidate, had a strong showing on “Super Tuesday” while the coronavirus outbreak fueled further optimism for more stimulus globally.

COVID-19 cases have topped 93K with a death toll over 3,100.

HPE was the latest company to cut 2020 guidance due to the coronavirus while the Caixin China Services PMI fell from 51.8 in January to a record low of 26.5 in February, also citing the virus outbreak as the primary reason for the weakness.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: The ADP Employment Report will hit first (E: 170K), but then, more importantly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 55.1) is due out shortly after the open and it could be a major catalyst for further gains (if it is good) or more volatility (if is badly misses expectations).

Lastly, the St. Louis Fed’s Bullard will speak twice today (11:00 a.m., 6:30 p.m. ET) and any indication on the Fed’s future policy plans could also have a significant influence on markets with the coronavirus outbreak still being closely watched by investors.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on March 2, 2020

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Investors may be hoping a March rate cut stops the bleeding in the stock market, but Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said Friday that another rate cut might be a bearish signal for the economy.

“While this is a fairly unique situation that the markets have rarely seen in the past, especially in the age of high-frequency trading houses and 24 hour, instant news sources, if the Fed does indeed cut rates in the coming months as the markets are pricing in, then it will mark…” Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Headshot

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Update

Futures are trading higher this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as investors weighed stimulus hopes against the continued spread of the coronavirus.

As cases of COVID-19 topped 90,000, the RBA was the first central bank to cut its official “cash rate” to a record low of 50 basis points overnight largely due to the outbreak.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Flash for February and Unemployment Rate for January both met expectations overnight at 1.2% and 7.4%, respectively.

Today, there are a few potential catalysts to watch including one economic data point: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.8M) and one Fed speaker after the close: Evans (6:30 p.m. ET), while politically, “Super Tuesday” will be in focus.

The coronavirus outbreak remains the single most important factor for global markets right now, however, and if there is a significant rise in reported cases of deaths related to the virus, this week’s risk-on money flows could begin to fade and potentially give way to more volatility.

Conversely, any news regarding emergency stimulus measures, especially by G7 nations could help this week’s rally extend higher.

Where Do Markets Go From Here?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do Markets Go From Here?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Coronavirus news first, but it’s an important week from a data standpoint too
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Why Wednesday is the Most Important Day of the Week

Markets are trying to stabilize and futures are down modestly, but they have been volatile as futures have been down 1% and up 1% before trading back closer to flat.

If there’s a “reason” for the attempted rebound, it’s the surging expectation for a globally coordinated central bank response sometime later this week (possibly a 50 bps cut).

Coronavirus news remained negative in aggregate as cases increased in the U.S., although the news is no worse than what the market’s priced in last week.

Economically, the Chinese Feb. Manufacturing PMI imploded to 35.7 vs. (E) 46.0, but that wasn’t a surprise.  The data from the EU and Britain was solid.

Today the market will be driven by the latest coronavirus headlines, but there is an important economic report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 50.4), and a better than expected number would give the market a needed confidence boost.

What to Make of Yesterday’s Selloff

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What To Make Of Yesterday’s Collapse
  • Yield Curve Update (Steepening But for the Wrong Reasons)

Futures are down sharply  but well off the overnight lows as markets digest yesterday’s collapse in stocks.

Coronavirus continues to spread (new cases in Nigeria and New Zealand) but China announced the fewest number of new cases since January 23rd, so there is progress occurring.

Economically, Japanese Retail Sales (-0.4% vs. (E) –1.0%) and Industrial Production beat estimates.

Coronavirus headlines will continue to dominate trading and today will be another volatile day (Friday’s in corrections always are), but outside of coronavirus markets will be focused on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 1.8%), Consumer Sentiment (E: 100.9) and one Fed speaker Bullard (9:15 a.m. ET).