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October MMT Chart and a Caution Signal From the VIX

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Latest on AI Bubble Discussions

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as there was no progress on resolving the shutdown and as investor attention turns to earnings.

Economically, the only notable report was German exports which declined modestly (down –3.9%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are several Fed speakers including, most importantly, Powell (8:30 a.m. ET).  Other Fed speakers today include Bowman (8:35 a.m. & 3:45 p.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Daly (6:40 p.m. ET).  The key for markets here is clear:  If Powell (and others) reiterate their concern about the labor market and hint at more rate cuts, that should help support stocks amidst this absence of economic data.

Earnings season also kicks off this week, although next week is when results begin in earnest.  Some reports to watch today include: DAL ($1.52), PEP ($2.27), HELE ($0.34), LEVI ($0.31).

October MMT Chart and a Caution Signal From the VIX

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • October MMT Levels – S&P 500 Chart
  • Technical Observation: VIX vs. SPX Caution Signal

Futures turned higher with Treasuries overnight after the Bank of New Zealand cut policy rates by -50 bp to 2.50% vs. (E) -25 bp, a dovish surprise aimed at spurring growth.

Economically, Taiwan’s CPI remained low at 1.25% y/y while German Industrial Production plunged -4.3% vs. (E) -1.0% but the downbeat data is bolstering dovish central bank policy bets and buoying both bond and equity markets this morning.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the void of government economic data continues and there are no notable private sector releases today which will leave markets continuing to focus on Treasury auctions and Fed speak.

Regarding the first of those two topics, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a (more important) 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Regarding the second topic, the Fed’s Musalem (9:20 a.m. ET), Barr (9:30 a.m. & 5:45 p.m. ET), Kashkari (3:15 p.m. & 4:30 p.m. ET), and Goolsbee (7:15 p.m. ET) are all scheduled to speak today.

And finally, the September FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET, and any evidence that pushes back on the thesis that the Fed will cut two more times in 2025 could send the dollar and yields (potentially sharply) higher and weigh meaningfully on equities.

 

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Tom Essaye: AI Stocks Create Major Risk for S&P 500

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Valuation gap suggests index could fall 20% to align with the market

S&P 500 Heavily Reliant on AI Stocks

The S&P 500’s heavy reliance on AI-linked mega-cap tech stocks is creating a significant risk for investors, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research and former Merrill Lynch trader.

Essaye pointed to a valuation gap of nearly five full points between the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). To trade in line with the equal-weight index, the S&P 500 would need to decline by almost 1,500 points, he noted.

The disparity is being driven by the “magnificent seven” and AI-related names. Essaye warned that if enthusiasm for AI weakens—whether from reduced capex or slower adoption—the S&P 500 could drop more than 20% before valuations align.

He stressed that he is not predicting such a downturn but said the correlation between AI sentiment and the S&P 500 is “too strong to ignore.”

Also, click here to view the full article on finnewsnetwork.com.au published on September 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth.  Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market.  Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.

 

SPX: Hot PPI Threatens Key Pillars of Stock Market Rally Says Sevens Report

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye warns inflation surprise clouds rate-cut hopes

SPX: PPI Shook the Pillars of the Stock Market Rally

Stocks rebounded from modest losses after Thursday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) release, but the data rattled investors. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, cautioned that the July PPI “shook the pillars” of the S&P 500’s rally, which has leaned heavily on renewed rate-cut expectations.

“The headline surge was more than four times consensus and the strongest since March 2022,” Essaye said, noting that traders “sold first and asked questions later” as hopes for a September cut dimmed. Rising inflation pressures, he explained, are a direct threat to the macro drivers currently propping up equities.

Technically, Essaye sees the S&P 500 trend as “cautiously bullish” after the index hit new record highs. He flagged key resistance at 6,395, 6,427, and 6,500, while noting important support at 6,340, 6,238, and 6,104.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Warns AI-Fueled S&P 500 Rally Risks Dot-Com Style Downside

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Sevens Report’s Essaye flags downside risks tied to semiconductors

Bank of America Warns S&P 500 Tops Dot-Com Bubble on AI Stock Surge

Bank of America strategists warn that the S&P 500 has surpassed dot-com era valuations, fueled by an AI-driven surge in tech leaders. Industry analysts echo similar concerns, including Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who points to semiconductor indices as a key risk factor.

Essaye cautioned in remarks cited by Business Insider that if economic resilience falters, the sector could drag the broader market lower. His outlook: “considerable downside” in coming quarters, especially if inflation reaccelerates or geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.

Adding to the vulnerability, passive investing trends may be amplifying bubbles. With index funds funneling capital into overvalued leaders, market corrections could be sharper when momentum unwinds.

Also, click here to view the full article on Webpronews.com published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: August Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Market Multiple Table: How Much Deterioration Has Occurred?

U.S. futures are higher thanks to good economic data overseas and solid tech earnings with PLTR up 6% premarket after topping estimates and raising guidance.

Economically, China’s Services PMI unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 52.6 vs. (E) 50.4, helping ease global growth concerns which surged following Friday’s downbeat U.S. jobs report.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-61.5B) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.5) due to be released.

From there, focus will turn to the bond market as the Treasury will hold 4-Week & 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, all of which could shed light on investors’ outlook for Fed policy rates in the near-term.

Finally, earnings season continues with PFE ($0.58), CAT ($4.88), BP ($0.68), AMD ($0.28), AMGN ($5.26), SMCI ($0.35), and AFL ($1.71). Near all-time highs, this market will want to see continued strength in both Q2 results, as well as forward guidance in order for the rebound from last week’s pullback to gain momentum.

 

AI Bubble Fears Grow as Chip Stocks Diverge From Broader Market

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Sevens Report urges caution as SOX index lags S&P 500 gains

5 big analyst AI moves: Microsoft upgraded on Azure growth, chip stocks PTs raised

Sevens Report Research warned Friday that a growing disconnect between AI chip stocks and the broader equity market could be an early signal of an “AI bubble.”

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” the firm wrote, calling AI technology the latest potentially bubble-inflating theme.

While Nvidia often draws attention as the face of the AI rally, Sevens cautioned that single-stock enthusiasm—especially driven by a “cult following”—can obscure broader market signals.

“It would be much more prudent to keep tabs on the broader-based semiconductor index, SOX,” the report said. Despite strong gains in the S&P 500 since July 2024, SOX has failed to post a new high, raising red flags.

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later,” the report concluded, likening the broader market to Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

S&P 500 Logs Weekly Gain as Resilient Spending Supports Rally

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Sevens Report points to tariffs and solid consumer demand

A Steady Rise in U.S. Stocks Leads to the S&P 500 Weekly Gains

U.S. stocks ticked higher Friday, helping the S&P 500 post another weekly gain as investors digested earnings, Fed commentary, and tariff effects.

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report noted:

“Some weakness is appearing in import-sensitive industries, possibly tied to tariffs, but overall consumer spending remains solid.”

That consumer strength is fueling the soft-landing narrative, keeping U.S. equities near all-time highs in 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.