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Charles Dow Would Be Selling Stocks Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Charles Dow Would Officially Be Selling Stocks Now
  • Consumer Confidence Takeaways – Another Survey-Based Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are slightly lower after a mostly quiet night of news as this week’s so-far-solid gains are digested with investors weighing favorable inflation data out of Europe against simmering tariff uncertainties.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.9% in February with Core CPI down from 3.7% to 3.5%.  The “cool” inflation data is helping U.K. markets outperform European peers this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic report due out ahead of the open: Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.0%). A “Goldilocks” report that is no worse than expected should help equities maintain WTD gains while a “too hot” or “too cold” print could spark some profit taking given the tentative nature of this week’s advance.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today: Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Musalem (1:10 p.m. ET), as well as a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Less-hawkish commentary from the Fed officials and healthy but not urgent demand for the 5-Yr Notes should be well-received by investors today.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy, late-season earnings reports due out today from DLTR ($2.18), CHWY ($3.19), and JEF ($0.88), but none are likely to have a material impact on the broader market.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

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Six Market Questions Answered

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Explain This Market to Clients (Six Investor Questions Answered)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Q1’25 Correction Over?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat-Sheet: Focus on PMIs and PCE

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as easing trade war angst is overshadowing soft EU economic data.

A Bloomberg article published on Saturday suggested that the Trump administration’s April 2nd tariff package would be more “targeted” in nature, a welcomed, positive trade war headline which is supporting risk-on money flows to start the week.

Economically, the Eurozone’s latest PMI Composite Flash rose to 50.4 vs. (E) 50.5 as weakness in Services offset strength in Manufacturing which is sending some mixed signals about the health of the EU economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, investor focus in the U.S. will be on economic data early as the U.S. Composite PMI Flash is due out shortly after the bell with the Manufacturing PMI seen easing to 51.8 while the Services PMI is expected to firm to 51.2. investors will want to see a “Goldilocks” data that neither prompts hawkish money flows nor rekindles growth worries.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers to watch: Bostic (1:45 p.m. ET) and Barr (3:10 p.m. ET) as well as a few late-season earnings reports due out from LUNR ($-0.08) and KBH ($1.56) but those catalysts are less likely to move markets  that the early economic data.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.

Bullish News for European Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

MMT Chart: S&P Targets Lowered Amid Ominous Technical Divergence

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March MMT Chart Update: Fundamental Price Targets Lowered
  • An Increasingly Ominous Technical Divergence Has Emerged in the S&P 500

Futures are trading with tentative gains and bonds are little changed after another mostly quiet night of macroeconomic news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Economically, Japanese PPI fell from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y in February, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.9% but the release did not meaningfully move markets ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on inflation data with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) data due to be released ahead of the bell. A “cool” print is the best case scenario for stocks to mount a relief rally after recent losses.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and investors will be watching demand metrics to gauge bond traders reaction to the CPI data in afternoon trade (a healthy, but not too-strong auction outcome would be favorable for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues with ADBE ($4.97) and AEO ($0.50) reporting after the close.

We can hope for is a churn sideways

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We can hope for is a churn sideways: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Wants an Economic ‘Detox.’ What It Means for Stocks.

According to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, “until there’s some movement towards stable policy, the best we can hope for is a churn sideways between around 5,700 and 6,000 in the S&P 500.” The index broke below 5650 in morning trading Monday.

Sevens Reports’ Essaye notes that concern about tariffs so far has been worse than their effects. While it makes sense to brace for volatility, “that negative scenario is not a foregone conclusion and actual facts on the economy and earnings [are] hanging on.” he says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Trump’s comments are weighing on sentiment

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Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is the “first big report of the year”: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Stock Market Comeback Erased: S&P 500 Sinks To 6-Month Low As Trump Says Don’t ‘Watch The Stock Market’

Trump’s comments are “weighing on sentiment” and “did nothing to ease investor concerns about ongoing policy chaos,” Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote in a Monday note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.