Sevens Report Analyst Quoted in Market Watch on September 19th, 2022

Gold retreats, holds near a more than 2-year low as investors await Fed decision

The new lows for gold have shifted our call on gold from neutral to bearish for the medium term. That will remain the case until we reach peak hawkishness with Fed expectations resulting in a top in the dollar and interest rates, both nominal and real, beginning to decline…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Why Stocks Dropped Again

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped (Again)
  • A Question About Silver

Futures are sharply lower following a very negative earnings pre-announcement from FedEx (FDX).

FedEx (FDX) earnings were terrible as the company reported EPS of $4.37 vs. (E) $5.10 and guidance was even worse with estimates of $2.75 vs. (E) $5.46.  The company sited significant macro-economic deterioration and the CEO warned about a “worldwide recession.”

Economically results were mixed as Chinese data beat estimates while UK Retail Sales were soft (–5.4% vs. –3.9%).

Today focus will be on Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.9) and more specifically the five-year inflation expectations.  In August they were 2.9% and if they rise back above 3.0% that’ll only compound the damage from Tuesday’s CPI and push stocks lower, while a decline below 2.9% will help offset CPI and help support stocks (although I think it’d take a sharp from below 2.9% for stocks to fully erase these early losses).

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MorningStar on September 7th, 2022

Gold prices mark highest finish in more than a week

If the recent dynamic of rising rates, a firming dollar, and fading inflation expectations continues, it is only a matter of time until gold breaks down through the bulls’ ‘line in the sand’ at $1,680 and hits new lows for the year…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Owning Gold for the Right Reasons

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Owning Gold for the Right Reasons
  • What About Silver?
  • Fed Day

Futures are marginally higher ahead of the Fed as markets bounce from Tuesday’s declines thanks to decent earnings.

Earnings after the bell were decent as AMD and SBUX both rallied, although Visa (V) made cautious comments on consumer spending late in Q2, which again implies we’re seeing a potential stall in the economic recovery.

Economically there were no notable reports overnight.

Today the key event is the FOMC Decision (E:  No Change to Rates or QE) and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.  Again, if there’s going to be a surprise from the Fed today (which is unlikely) it’s going to come from the press conference – so we’ll be watching.