The nation’s refineries simply don’t have the ability to absorb those new barrels [of oil] suddenly hitting the market and therefore, physical refined product markets remain tight and prices are still elevated…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The key for tomorrow’s jobs report is that it furthers the idea that we’ve hit ‘peak hawkishness’ with the Fed and peak inflation…says Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
The Energy Information Administration data showed a healthy rebound in gasoline demand, easing some recent concerns about demand destruction in gasoline markets…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly lower with EU markets this morning as traders digest yesterday’s gains ahead of today’s June jobs report.
Sadly, former PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has died after an assassination attempt at a campaign stop overnight.
Economically, Japanese Household Spending fell -1.9% vs. (E) +1.2% in May, rekindling concerns about the health of global growth.
Looking into today’s session, the focus will be almost entirely on the June Employment Situation report from the BLS (E: Job Adds 270K, Unemployment Rate 3.6%, Wages 5.0% y/y) which is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. There is also one Fed official speaking this morning: Williams (8:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, the market will want to see jobs data that meets our “Just Right” scenario from our Jobs Report Preview which would suggest we are seeing slowing growth in the labor market, yet not a full-on collapse, and increase hopes we are close to or beyond “peak hawkishness” from the Fed. That would open the door to a continued relief rally, however, a report that is either too strong or overly disappointing could send stock falling sharply today.
While it’s too early to declare the value outperformance ‘over,’ we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher despite negative COVID news from China and after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he intends to resign.
COVID cases rose in Shanghai to the highest level since late May, prompting mass testing and increasing concerns of another lockdown.
Politically, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce his resignation, but this shouldn’t impact stocks.
Today’s focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and a continued slow drift higher will imply the jobs market is softening, which is needed if the Fed is going to get to “Peak Hawkishness” sooner than later. We also have two Fed speakers, Bullard (1:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (1:00 p.m. ET) and we should expect their commentary to be hawkish (they’re two of the louder hawks on the Fed).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly lower with European markets this morning as recession fears continue to weigh on sentiment.
Economically, global Composite PMI data was better than feared but broader concerns of a slowdown remain.
Today, investor focus will be on economic data early with Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 13.5M) and Factory Orders (E: 0.5%) both due out before the opening bell.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET which may move bond markets and ultimately move equities.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following another high-profile guidance cut and more mixed economic and inflation data.
Micron (MU) materially cut forward guidance, sighting a steep drop in demand at the end of the second quarter and becoming the latest company to warn of deteriorating business conditions.
Economic and inflation data was mixed as EU headline HICP (their CPI) was hotter than expected but Core HICP underwhelmed, while the EU and UK final manufacturing PMIs reflected the slowing growth sweeping the globe.
Today’s focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 55.0) and the key here is moderation – markets need to see a slowing of growth but not a dramatic collapse. If we see moderation, stocks can rally to start the second half.
Not only did the headline badly miss expectations, falling to a 16-month low, but consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead within the report jumped from an upwardly revised 7.5% to 8.0%, which notably contradicts the…wrote The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
