China’s PMI this morning was horrific, that underscores that the Chinese economy is a huge drag on global growth right now. It’s a risk to keep inflation high…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
We shouldn’t have gone up 2% yesterday on the news…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following Friday’s selloff, but there was no improvement over the weekend on the three headwinds pressuring stocks: Chinese growth worries, Ukraine war and hawkish Fed.
Economic data was mixed as the April Chinese manufacturing PMI dropped further (to 47.4 from 49.5) while the EU PMI slightly beat estimates (55.5 vs. (E) 55.3) and German Retail Sales underwhelmed (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%).
Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 58.0) and markets need to see a solid number to push back on stagflation concerns. If we get a weak number, expect the selling to resume and stagflation fears to grow.
Earnings season will begin to wind down this week but there are still some important results coming and some we’re watching today include: NXPI ($3,17), CAR ($3.54) and MGM ($-0.09).
Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye discusses if the market has hit its lows of the year or if there is still more to come on Fox Business’s “The Claman Countdown.” Click here to watch the interview.
While major stock market indexes plunged as much as 2% Tuesday, analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report warned clients he remains “cautious” on the S&P 500 as stocks struggle to stabilize, pointing to “relentless selling” on Friday as a potential predecessor to a sharp downturn of as much as 5%. Click here to read the full article.
Growth scares will cause a temporary decline in yields but unless there’s a real threat of a global slowdown (which there isn’t yet) then the direction of global yields remains higher, and we again think it’s just a matter of time until the 10-year yield hits 3%…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a research note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures are up 1% this morning as yesterday’s steep declines are digested amid upbeat earnings and guidance out of MSFT after the close yesterday (MSFT is up 5%).
Economic data was net negative overnight as Australian CPI was hotter than expected while U.K. CBI Distributive Trades and the German GfK Consumer Climate Index both badly missed estimates, however, investors are shrugging off the data as the focus is on earnings this morning.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports: International Trade in Goods (E: -$105.0B) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.1%) but neither should move markets and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move the bond market as yields have pulled back considerably since last week’s highs and a reversal back higher could become a headwind on stocks again, especially growth names.
Finally, the market’s main focus at the moment is earnings and we will get results from: BA (-$0.26) and HOG ($1.52) before the bell and then FB ($2.58), F ($0.39), PYPL ($0.89), QCOM ($2.91), and DFS ( $3.58) after the close. If earnings, especially by big tech companies can top estimates, a relief rally could play out as stocks are near-term oversold, however, momentum through yesterday’s close has been decidedly negative and the price action remains heavy.
Treasury yields surged again on the idea of even more rate hikes, specifically that the Fed could hike 50 bps (basis points) in May, June, and July…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher as earnings continue to come in better than expected.
TSLA and UAL both posted better than expected earnings and UAL was very upbeat on travel spending and investors are viewing that as a positive macro-economic signal.
EU HICP (their CPI) slightly missed expectations (7.4% vs. (E ) 7.5% yoy), again hinting that inflation may be peaking.
Today will be a busy day with important Fed speak, economic data and earnings. The key event (potentially) is Fed Chair Powell speaking this morning and while he’s not likely to drop any surprises, it’s always possible. Economically, the key report today is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 20.5) and markets will want to see stability in the data. We also get Jobless Claims (E: 175K) and Fed President Bullard (1:00 p.m) but they shouldn’t move markets.
On the earnings front, notable reports today include: T ($0.78), AAL (-$2.48), FCX ($0.88), PM ($1.48), UNP ($2.55), SNAP ($0.01), PPG ($1.13).
Unseasonably cold temperatures are driving elevated spring heating demand in the U.S. amid an already bullish fundamental backdrop of subdued inventory levels and no real signs of rising production in the near to medium term…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
