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CPI Day and FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • CPI Preview (Abbreviated Version)
  • Chart – NY Fed Survey Inflation Expectations Fall Sharply

Stock futures are extending yesterday’s gains as traders await today’s CPI report amid mixed news from overnight.

In China, a $143B stimulus package aimed at the semiconductor industry helped offset the delay of an economic/Covid policy meeting due to a surge in Covid cases.

Economic data was mixed overnight but there were no surprises material enough to derail the tentative pre-CPI rally this morning.

Today, traders will be keenly focused on the November CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET with the headline expected to come in at 0.3% M/M and 7.3% Y/Y while the Core figure is expected to be 0.4% M/M and 6.1% Y/Y. Bottom line, a print below 7.3% on the headline and below 6.1% in the core figure will be well received by investors but an upside miss in either could trigger a sharp reversal of this most recent move higher in the broader stock market.

Once markets digest the CPI report, money flows are likely to take on a positioning tone with tomorrow’s Fed decision looming and a limited list of catalysts for the remainder of the day. There is a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move rates and have a mild impact on stocks.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on December 7th, 2022

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Gold futures up a second straight session, but hold below $1,800 an ounce

The technical outlook remains bullish for gold near term, but “if we see rates and the dollar begin to rise, we are likely to see much of the November rally retraced in the weeks ahead,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on December 7th, 2022

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Bond yields fall as Wall Street worries about higher Fed rates

“Bottom line, the economic outlook is turning for the worse (outside of the labor market) and if that continues, it will support the long end of the curve,” wrote Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global on December 7th, 2022

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Stock market’s ‘fear gauge’ plunges as investors shift hedging strategies

Still, the VIX has not behaved in its typical fashion for much of this year, said Tyler Richey, a co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Washington Post on December 6th, 2022

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PepsiCo layoffs could indicate broader economic woes

The company, which has a market cap of $252.3 billion, is simply signaling the headwinds to come. This is really confirming so many other signs that we are headed toward a potentially pretty significant economic slowdown, said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Market Multiple Table: December Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table December Update: Macro Improvement But It’s More Than Priced In
  • November ISM Services Index Takeaways

Futures are little changed this morning despite a stabilizing bond market and mostly positive global news flow overnight as yesterday’s hawkish money flows are digested.

Economically, German Manufacturer’s Orders rose 0.8% vs. (E) -0.2% in October suggesting that factory demand may be stabilizing.

In China, new Covid cases have declined for 8 consecutive days and the government is reducing testing requirements, bolstering optimism about a move away from the crippling Zero Covid policies.

Today is lining up to be a fairly slow day of news with just one lesser followed economic release: International Trade in Goods and Services (E: -$80.0B) and no Fed speakers as they remain in their pre-meeting blackout period. That said, equity markets will likely queue off of Treasuries and if we see a further rise in shorter-duration yields due to rising terminal rate expectations, yesterday’s declines could very well continue.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, and Quarterly Letter

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2022 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha or Quarterly Letter).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products when billed on an annual basis.

If you want to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email info@sevensreport.com.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on November 28th, 2022

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Credit Suisse Tumbles: Stock Hits New Record Low After Banking Giant Warns Of ‘Substantial’ Losses

“In short, Credit Suisse is starting to act like a bank that’s about to go under,” analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a recent note. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted Tyler Richey on November 17th, 2022

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U.S. oil prices drop by nearly 5% to end at their lowest since late September

“Stagflationary economic data, rising COVID cases in China, and hawkish [Federal Reserve] chatter have all been added headwinds on the oil market today,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on November 25th, 2022

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U.S. bond market holds steady in shortened post-Thanksgiving session

“Looking at the curve, the 10s-2s yield curve spread remained near a multidecade low of nearly minus-80 basis points. That deep of an inversion suggests that the Fed’s current policy and expected path of future policy are far too restrictive for the state of the economy and growth expectations, which will almost certainly end in a recession — and potentially a severe one given the scope of the current inversions across the Treasury yield curve,” said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article. 

Updated Market Outlook: What’s the Next Positive Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook:  What’s the Next Positive Catalyst?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday

Futures are sharply lower on unrest in China as protests erupted across the country following more COVID restrictions.

Over the weekend Chinese citizens protested in numerous cities following new COVID restrictions, as the Chinese government sticks to it’s “Zero COVID” policy.

Economically the only notable number was EU M3 (money suppled) and that rose 5.8% vs. (E) 6.1%.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are two Fed speakers, Bullard (12:00 p.m. ET) and Williams (12:00 p.m. ET).  Bullard especially has produced some “tape bombs” with his commentary on rates and if he’s again hawkish (talking about 7% Fed Funds) expect that to add to the early losses.

Sevens Report – Daily stock market analysis

Everything you need to know about the markets. by 7 am each morning in seven minutes or less.