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What Is the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and Why Is It Impacting Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is the “Big, Beautiful Bill” and Why Is It Impacting Markets?

Futures are slightly higher as markets digest Wednesday’s yield driven selloff.

Economically, EU and UK flash PMIs disappointed.  The EU flash PMI badly missed expectations (49.5 vs. (E) 50.9) while the UK reading was a slight miss (49.4 vs. (E) 49.5).

Today focus will be on economic data as well as political progress.  Economically, the key reports today are the May Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.8) and Flash Services PMI (E: 50.6) as well as Jobless Claims (E: 230K).  As has been the case, the stronger those numbers, the better as they will continue to push back on stagflation fears.  There is also one Fed speaker, Williams at 2:00 p.m. ET, but he’s unlikely to move markets.

Finally, on the political front, the deficit implications of the “Big Beautiful Bill” are pushing Treasury yields higher and if the bill advances out of the House and is viewed as deficit negative, it will send yields higher again and pressure stocks.

Are Markets Giving An “All Clear” Signal?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Markets Giving An “All Clear” Signal?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can This Rebound Hold?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The First National Numbers for May (This Thursday)

Futures are lower (down more than 1%) following the Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt Friday afternoon.

The Moody’s downgrade wasn’t dramatic news (S&P and Fitch downgraded U.S. debt years ago) but it is pushing the 10 year yield higher and that’s weighing on futures.

Economically, Chinese economic data underwhelmed (Retail Sales and Industrial Production missed estimates).

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  Economically, Leading Indicators (E: -0.7%) is the most notable report while we have several Feds speakers including: Williams & Bostic (8:30 a.m. ET), Jefferson (9:45 a.m. ET) and Logan (1:15 p.m. ET).  If they echo Powell from last week and are somewhat dismissive of near-term rate cuts, that could add to the headwinds on stocks today.

Jobs Report Preview: Recession Risks Rising?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Recession Risks Rising?

Futures are sharply higher on strong earnings overnight.

META (up 6% pre-market) and MSFT (up 9% pre-market) both beat estimates and posted strong guidance and that’s helping futures rally.

Economically, the only notable report was UK Manufacturing PMI, which beat estimates (45.4 vs. (E) 44.0).

Today will be an important day for economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the two key reports today are Jobless Claims (E: 221K) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.9).  The stronger these reports are, the better for stocks as they’ll push back on slowdown fears.

On the earnings front, AMZN ($1.35) and AAPL ($1.61) are the most important reports (both after the close) but there are several other notable earnings as well: LLY ($3.52), CVS ($1.67), MA ($3.57).

The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Is Silver Set to Breakout?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Silver Set to Breakout?

Futures are modestly weaker on digestion of this week’s rally and on mildly disappointing trade news.

Chinese officials stated there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S. and again called for the removal of tariffs, pushing back on the “progress” narrative of the past few days.

Focus today will be on economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports today include Durable Goods (E: 1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.12 million) and if this “hard” data remains solid it will push back against slowdown concerns.    There is also one Fed speaker, Kashkari (5:00 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key reports today include GOOGL ($2.02), INTC ($-0.14) and PG ($1.54).  For GOOGL and INTC, guidance will be key while investors will wait to see the impact of tariffs on PG’s quarter.

Why This Is (Likely) A Rangebound Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why This Is (Likely) A Rangebound Market
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Earnings in Focus (Will Corporate America Confirm Investors’ fears?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is Uncertainty Pressuring Economic Growth Yet?

Futures are sharply lower (down around 1%) following the holiday weekend as rising tension between Fed Chair Powell and President Trump pressured sentiment.

On Friday, National Economic Director Hasset said the White House was studying if Powell can be fired, adding another potential source of uncertainty to the markets.

Today volumes will be low given many global markets (including the UK, EU, Hong Kong and Australia) are closed.  But, there is one economic report, Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%) and one Fed speaker Goolsbee (8:30 a.m. ET).  Any data that implies stable growth and a dovish Fed should help support stocks.

Why Powell Caused Stocks to Drop

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Powell Caused Stocks to Drop

Futures are moderately higher on positive trade headlines and strong tech earnings.

President Trump posted on social media that “Big Progress” has been made in a trade deal with Japan and that’s helping stocks rally (although details were light).

On earnings, TSM beat earnings and boosted guidance and provided some needed good news for the tech sector.

Today there are several economic reports including, on order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 6.7) and Housing Starts (1.420M).  As has been the case, markets will be looking for solid data that pushed back on the slowdown narrative.  We also have one Fed speaker, Barr (11:45 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Earnings season continues to heat up, meanwhile, and important reports today include UNH ($7.27), AXP ($3.46) and NFLX ($5.74).

What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second

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What worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second: Tom Essaye Quoted in Business Insider

Buy the dip or stay defensive? Where to invest as tariffs roil stocks

Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, said what worked in the first quarter would continue to work in the second.

That is, basically everything except for tech, consumer discretionary, communication services, and industrials. Those are the four S&P 500 sectors, out of 11, that are in the red so far this year.

Energy and defensive sectors — which are usually healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples — in particular, should outperform in the months ahead, Essaye said.

“Tariffs are going to continue to cause whiplash, but there are parts of the market that are actually performing pretty well,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Charles Dow Would Be Selling Stocks Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Charles Dow Would Officially Be Selling Stocks Now
  • Consumer Confidence Takeaways – Another Survey-Based Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are slightly lower after a mostly quiet night of news as this week’s so-far-solid gains are digested with investors weighing favorable inflation data out of Europe against simmering tariff uncertainties.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 3.0% to 2.8% vs. (E) 2.9% in February with Core CPI down from 3.7% to 3.5%.  The “cool” inflation data is helping U.K. markets outperform European peers this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic report due out ahead of the open: Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.0%). A “Goldilocks” report that is no worse than expected should help equities maintain WTD gains while a “too hot” or “too cold” print could spark some profit taking given the tentative nature of this week’s advance.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today: Kashkari (10:00 a.m. ET) and Musalem (1:10 p.m. ET), as well as a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Less-hawkish commentary from the Fed officials and healthy but not urgent demand for the 5-Yr Notes should be well-received by investors today.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy, late-season earnings reports due out today from DLTR ($2.18), CHWY ($3.19), and JEF ($0.88), but none are likely to have a material impact on the broader market.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.