Since the beginning of last week, 3,800 has become a new ceiling for the S&P 500 as sellers have repeatedly stepped in and overwhelmed the tentative, weakhanded bids…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum from last week’s rally and following a quiet weekend of news.
In China, the economic reopening continued as Shanghai reported no new COVID cases for the first time in two months while Beijing allowed most schools to reopen on Monday.
Geo-politically, Russia defaulted on a debt payment, but this was widely expected so it’s not impacting markets.
Today focus will be on economic data via Durable Goods (E: 0.5%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -2.5%) and markets will want to see continued moderation in the data (so a slowing of activity, but not a steep drop that might imply a “hard” economic landing).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher thanks to positive news from China.
The economic reopening in China progressed over the weekend as COVID cases continued to decline, authorities relaxed more restrictions in Beijing, and none of the fifty largest cities in China have intense restrictions in place.
Also in China, the WSJ reported authorities may soon end their probe into Didi, and that might also signal an end to the government crackdown on Chinese tech stocks (if so that’d be a major positive for Chinese tech names and a peripheral positive for tech stocks more broadly).
Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers, so it should be a generally quiet day of news. Across the pond, UK Prime Minister Johnson faces a “no confidence” vote in Parliament, but he’s expected to survive it (if he doesn’t, that could be a surprise negative for stocks today but again that is unlikely).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet night of news as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.
Economic data from Europe underwhelmed as Euro Zone Services PMI declined to 56.1 vs. (E) 56.3 while Euro-Zone Retail Sales missed estimates, falling –1.3% vs. (E) 0.4%.
Elon Musk made cautious comments saying he had a “super bad” feeling about the economy in a Reuters interview.
Today’s focus will be on the Jobs Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds (E: 325k), UE Rate (E: 3.5%), Wages (E: 0.4% m/m & 5.3% y/y). As long as data shows “moderation” in the labor market (so a positive number but in the lower part of the range) then stocks can extend Thursday’s rally. Other data today includes ISM Services PMI: 56.3, and we get one Fed speaker: Brainard (10:30 a.m. ET).
This two-day rally in the market is mostly built on the premise that the Fed may ‘pause’ rate hikes after the two 50-bps adjustments this summer…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings and continued reopening in China.
Shanghai continued to reopen and Beijing is still avoiding the most draconian lockdowns and that’s helping broader market sentiment.
Economic data was sparse as the only notable report was Euro Zone M3 (6.2% vs. (E) 6.3%) but that’s not moving markets.
Today the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3%, 4.9%) and if it underwhelms vs. expectations and furthers the idea that inflation has peaked, look for a continuation of this week’s rally. We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.1) and the key there will be the five-year inflation expectations. If they drop below 3.0%, that’ll be an additional positive for stocks today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are little changed this morning, well off the overnight highs after a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes.
Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index met expectations of -26.0 while German GDP came in at 3.8% vs. (E) 3.7% but today’s data is not materially impacting markets.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch early: Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and the Treasury will hold an auction for 5-Year Notes at 1:00 p.m. ET. Markets will want to see data that shows healthy demand and steady trade in fixed income markets if stocks are to stabilize further.
As far as the Fed goes, Vice-Chair Brainard is scheduled to speak at 12:15 p.m. ET before the day’s main event, the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes will hit at 2:00 p.m. ET. If Brainard and the minutes are less hawkish that could support a continuation of the latest attempt at a relief rally. At the same time, any more-hawkish leaning rhetoric or verbiage could lead to a resurgence in volatility as news flow has been decidedly negative over the last week.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rebound following a generally quiet weekend.
COVID news from China remains mixed as Shanghai continues to relax lockdowns although Beijing is seeing a continued increase in cases (keeping the threat of more lockdowns alive).
The dollar is down one percent after ECB President Lagarde signaled two rate hikes were likely in the 3rd quarter (this was a bit more hawkish than expected).
Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET). If Bostic echoes Bullard’s slightly less hawkish than feared commentary from Friday afternoon, then stocks can extend Friday’s rebound.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading with tentative gains this morning as yesterday’s steep declines are digested after a mostly quiet night of news.
Economically, data overseas was slightly better than feared (specifically Economic Sentiment within the German ZEW Survey) while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. held steady at 93.2, topping estimates of 92.9.
There are no notable economic reports today but there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the results help the bond market stabilize, that could help equities bounce today.
Finally, there are a slew of Fed speakers today including: Williams (7:40 a.m. ET), Bostic (8:30 a.m. ET), Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), and Mester (3:00 p.m. ET). If they collectively strike a “less-hawkish” tone, that could also help fuel a relief rally in stocks today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower as markets digest Wednesday’s big post-Fed rally following a night of underwhelming economic data.
The April Chinese services PMI plunged to 36.2 vs. (E) 41.1, reflecting the economic damage from lockdowns. In Europe, data was mixed as German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates while UK Services PMI beat expectations.
There are multiple Fed speakers today on financial media outlets (there are no official speeches scheduled) and don’t be surprised if they sound hawkish and push back on the post FOMC rally yesterday (this is especially true for Bullard, whose doing interviews today).
Today’s focus will be on the aforementioned Fed speakers, and again don’t be shocked if they sound “hawkish” and that causes some giveback from yesterday’s rally (but a hawkish tone won’t undo the positives from Powell’s press conference, either).
Economically, there is a BOE Rate decision and they are expected to hike 25 bps. Domestically, the key report today is Unit Labor Costs (E: 6.8%) as that will give us a good look at total wage inflation (and if it’s higher than estimates that will be a negative). We also get Jobless Claims (E: 178K) but that shouldn’t move markets.