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Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

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Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025

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What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest lingering tariff uncertainty and despite better than expected economic data.

The only notable economic report overnight was Euro Zone Flash GDP and it beat estimates, rising 0.1% vs. (E) 0.0%.

On tariffs, the lack of detail and action on reciprocal tariffs was a relief but a “tariff cliff” has formed on or around April 1st and that uncertainty will stay a market headwind.

Tariff headlines should theoretically slow down for the next few weeks given the various trade studies that need to occur before tariff announcements in March/April, so focus will turn back towards data and there are two notable reports today:   Retail Sales (E: -0.1%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%).  As has been the case, Goldilocks data that’s at or slightly under expectations remains the best case for stocks as it implies solid growth but won’t make the Fed less dovish.

There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan at 3:00 p.m. ET, but she shouldn’t move markets.

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This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up

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This market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Report jobs preview: The ‘market needs Goldilocks data’

In the latest Sevens Report, analysts highlighted the importance of Friday’s jobs report, stating that “if it’s Goldilocks, it’s going to help support the market amidst all this tariff and policy noise.”

However, if the report is either too strong or too weak, it could introduce further volatility and pressure on stocks.

Sevens Report emphasizes that for markets to remain stable, “this market needs Goldilocks data to continue to hold up.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on February 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Can Stocks Rally in the Face of Tariff Threats?

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Can Stocks Rally in the Face of Tariff Threats?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can Stocks Rally in the Face of Tariff Threats?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Fed Rate Cut Expectations Change This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Wednesday is the Key Report

Futures are modestly higher despite more tariff threats as markets bounce following Friday’s decline.

President Trump announced he was imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and will apply “reciprocal” tariffs on numerous countries later this week.

Markets are shrugging off the announcements so far, however, because they again lack specific details.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

Today focus will be on the New York Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%), which is a bit atypical.  On Friday, one year inflation expectations jumped but it was because of tariff concerns and as such, it’s not going to impact the Fed.  However, if we see another jump in inflation expectations this morning, that may be taken as a mildly hawkish signal and boost yields and pressure stocks.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview: Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market

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Jobs Report Preview: Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview:  Why A Goldilocks Report Matters For This Market

Futures are little changed as markets await the next round of news on tariffs while economic data was mixed.

Economically, Euro Zone Retail Sales missed estimates (-0.2% vs. (E) 0.0%) underscoring still tepid EU growth.

On trade, a call between Trump and Xi still hasn’t happened but most expect tariffs to be reduced when it does.

Today will be a busy day in the markets, starting with a major central bank decision as the Bank of England is expected to cut rates 25 bps.

Economically, there are two notable reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.3%) and as we’ve seen the last two days, slight misses vs. expectations will be positives for stocks and bonds.  On the Fed front, there are two speakers today but they won’t move markets as they both speak after the close (Logan at 5:10 p.m. ET and Waller at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Finally, on earnings, the key report today is AMZN ($1.52) after the bell.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Trade War 2.0 Primer (Needed Context)

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Trade War 2.0 Primer (Needed Context): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • U.S. Trade Primer (Needed Context for Trade War 2.0)
  • Chart – JOLTS Drop Consistent With Cooling Labor Market

Futures are lower thanks to lingering trade war jitters and soft earnings from two big tech companies late yesterday.

GOOGL (-7%) missed estimates on revenue due to a slowdown in their cloud business while AMD (-9%) offered weak forward guidance, both of which are weighing on tech today, dragging stock futures lower in pre-market trade.

Today, there are two potentially market moving economic reports to watch; the ADP Employment Report (E: 150K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 54.0). investors will once again be looking for Goldilocks data with steady but cooling jobs data and positive but slowing growth in the service sector. Any “hot” numbers will likely weigh on stocks today.

Additionally, there are several Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bowman (3:00 p.m. ET) while earnings season continues with Q4 reports due out from UBER ($0.50), DIS ($1.44), TM ($4.36), F ($0.34), QCOM ($2.97), and MCK ($8.11).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Happens to Markets If the Bond Vigilantes Return?

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What Happens to Markets If the Bond Vigilantes Return?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens to Markets If the Bond Vigilantes Return?
  • What Happens to Markets If the Bond Vigilantes Don’t Return?

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion of the recent rally and following a mostly quiet night of news.

Economically, the only notable number was UK CBI Industrial Trends, which were slightly better than expected (-34% vs. (E) -40%).

Politically, President Trump conducted an interview with Sean Hannity overnight but nothing new was revealed.

Today we get our first notable economic report of the week via Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and the case remains that Goldilocks data (so in-line to slightly weak) is the best case scenario for stocks, as it implies solid growth but won’t further reduce rate cut expectations.

On earnings, the reporting season continues to gain steam and some reports we’re watching today include GE ($1.02), AAL ($0.64), FCX ($0.25), TXN ($1.19), ISRG( $1.77).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bond Vigilantes Are Back (Part 1)

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Bond Vigilantes Are Back (Part 1): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bond Vigilantes Are Back (They’re Just Not Here Yet) – Part One

U.S. futures are higher with global markets this morning amid a continued relief rally after Trump focused on AI and energy initiatives instead of tariffs on his first day.

Economically, New Zealand CPI came in as expected at 0.5% in Q4 which helped ease global inflation worries.

Today there is just one, second-tiered economic report due to be released: Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%) which is unlikely to move markets.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Year Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Investors will want to see more strong demand for both short duration and longer duration Treasuries to keep yields from rising again.

Finally, earnings season continues today with PG ($1.87), JNJ ($2.01), ABT ($1.34), KMI ($0.33), DFS ($3.15), and AA ($0.91) all releasing quarterly reports. Generally strong top and bottom line results would be an added tailwind to stocks.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Some of the biggest gains in the bull market

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Some of the biggest gains in the bull market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Business Insider

Oracles of Wall Street: 11 pros who nailed 2024’s top trends

Building on Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye’s bullish fundamental outlook, Richey compiled the technical indicators he watches and concluded in February that the index could hit 6,000 by the end of 2024.

For example, the S&P 500’s relative strength index, which measures price momentum, had stayed in “overbought” territory for three weeks at the time. When that has happened in the past, it’s meant that the trend could continue for several months, Richey said. Investor sentiment was also bullish but not over-extended. And the yield curve was still inverted despite no sign of recession.

“Some of the biggest gains in the bull market — statistically, it’s measurable that they occur during yield curve inversions such as the late ’90s and 2006-2007,” he said.

Going into 2025, however, Richey sees signs that the rally could face hurdles if a negative catalyst comes along.

“Looking ahead, the collection of market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end in the weeks or months ahead and for a cyclical bear market to begin,” Richey said in an email. But he added that: “There is nothing in the current fundamental backdrop that suggests a bear market in stocks is a sure thing or even likely for that matter.”

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on December 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Four Key Areas of Policy and Politics That Matter Most

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Four Key Areas of Policy and Politics That Matter Most: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Key Areas of Policy and Politics That Matter Most to Markets
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Composite PMIs and Jobless Claims in Focus

Futures are higher in volatile trade as investors weigh Trump’s fresh tariff threats against pro-growth policy plans.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed while the U.K. Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak, however, there are Treasury auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 52-Week Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. Rising yields in reaction to the auction results could lead to more market volatility and pressure stocks while strong demand (lower yields) would be welcomed by investors.

Additionally, earnings season continues today with quarterly reports from SCHW ($0.90), MMM ($1.66), DHI ($2.41), NFLX ($4.19), UAL ($3.01), and COF ($2.66), and investors will want to see evidence of continued earnings growth to support the case for a further stock market rally in 2025.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.