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Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on February 8th, 2023

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The bond market is flashing a warning that U.S. stocks could be headed lower

“The spike in the 2-year yield tells us the market is now believing the Fed when it has been saying it’s going to raise rates close to or above 5%, notably, it wasn’t Powell’s commentary that got the market to believe that — it was the economic data from Friday, notably the jobs report and ISM Services PMI,” Essaye said, the founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing? (Printable PDF Table Available)
  • Powell Interview Takeaways

Futures are moderately lower this morning as investors continue to digest Powell’s commentary from yesterday which was largely viewed as another missed opportunity to push back on recent dovish money flows across markets.

Looking into today’s session there are no notable economic reports but a slew of Fed speakers that could move markets. In chronological order, we will hear from: Williams (9:20 a.m. ET), Cook (9:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (12:30 p.m. ET), and finally Waller (1:45 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and seeing as yesterday’s dismal 3-Yr auction sent the S&P 500 to session lows, the outcome could very well move markets today.

Finally, Q4 earnings season continues today with a few notable companies releasing results: UBER (-$0.21), CVS ($1.92), DIS ($0.80).

Has the Fed Reached Peak Hawkishness?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Has the Fed Reached Peak Hawkishness?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Powell Sound Hawkish on Tuesday?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key inflation data Tuesday and Friday.

Futures are moderately lower mostly on follow-through selling from Friday’s hot jobs report.

The Chinese spy balloon drama dominated weekend headlines but it’s unlikely to materially alter U.S./China relations and as such shouldn’t be an influence on markets.

Rate expectations rose over the weekend following Friday’s jobs report, with markets now pricing in a terminal Fed Funds rate of 4.75% and that’s the main reason stocks are lower this morning.

Today there are no notable economic reports and no Fed speakers, so the focus will remain on yields and rate expectations and if they continue to climb, that will weigh on stocks.

Was Powell’s Press Conference A Bullish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Rally During Powell’s Press Conference?
  • Was the FOMC Decision A Bullish Gamechanger (No, But It Was a Positive Event)
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are solidly higher on continued momentum from Wednesday’s “not hawkish” post-FOMC rally and following better-than-expected META earnings.

META surged 19% overnight as the company reported better-than-feared earnings driven by gains in artificial intelligence and aggressive cost-cutting.

Today will be a very busy day of micro and macro-economic events as we get major central bank decisions, more important economic data, and key earnings.

First, this morning there are two central bank decisions:  BOE Rate Decision (E: 50 bps hike) and ECB Rate Decision (E: 50 bps hit).  If either is overtly hawkish (maybe the ECB) it could send global yields higher and take back some of yesterday’s rally.

After those two central bank decisions, we get an update on the labor market via Jobless Claims (E: 193K),  inflation via Productivity & Costs (E: 2.4%, 1.5%), and economic growth via Factory Orders (E: 2.2%).  Especially in light of Powell’s not hawkish press conference, data that shows stability and declining price pressures will support stocks.

Finally, on earnings, today is likely the single most important day of the earnings season as we get results from three of the most widely held stocks in the market:  AAPL ($1.93), AMZN ($0.15), and GOOGL ($1.14).

Fed Wildcard to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Wildcard to Watch: Powell’s Press Conference
  • Employment Cost Index Takeaways
  • Key Technical Levels to Watch in the Wake of the Fed – Chart

Global markets are rallying on the back of favorable economic data in Europe while large cap tech shares are dragging U.S. futures lower following dismal SNAP earnings (shares of the company are down ~15% in pre-market trading).

Economically, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI met estimates at 48.8 while the HICP Flash (their CPI) cooled to 8.5% vs. (E) 9.1% which is being received as mildly dovish ahead of this week’s all-important central bank meetings.

Looking into today’s session, we will get our first look at January jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 158K) ahead of the bell while JOLTS (E: 10.2 million) and the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 48.0) will be released at the top of the 10:00 a.m. hour ET.

From there focus will shift to the Fed with the FOMC Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (E: +25 bp to 4.50% – 4.75%) followed by Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

There are also a few notable earnings releases to watch today: TMUS ($1.39), META ($2.12), and ALL (-$1.37).

Bottom line, investors will be looking for further moderation in the morning economic data but not a sharp drop off indicating a deep recession looming while an as-expected or dovish Fed decision and press conference would likely see January’s gains extended in the afternoon. Conversely, a hawkish press conference (like the Jackson Hole speech in August) would very likely trigger a surge in volatility into the final hour of the day.

Hard Landing or Soft Landing?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing or Soft Landing?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Does Growth Stabilize?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  The Peak of Earnings Season

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets look ahead to more earnings and economic data this week.

On Sunday the WSJ published an article on the Fed that stated the Fed will hike 25 bps at the upcoming meeting and begin discussions on when to end the rate hike cycle.  The article is being taken as dovish, but it’s not very different from current consensus thinking.

Today the focus will be on Leading Indicators (E: -0.7%) because this number flashed an intense recession warning signal last month and if there’s further deterioration that will likely weigh on stocks modestly.

On the earnings front, most of the key names this week report Tuesday – Thursday, but some results we’re watching today include:  SYF ($1.12), BKR ($0.41), and LOGI ($1.06).

Market Multiple Table: January Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – January Update: Still More Optimistic Than Fundamentals Warrant

S&P 500 futures are trading with modest losses this morning as investors digest positive economic news out of Europe ahead of Powell’s speech today.

In Europe, French Industrial Production rose 2.0% vs. (E) 0.8% in November while GS dropped their Euro-area recession call for 2023 bolstering market hopes for a soft landing.

Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 89.8 vs. (E) 91.3 which is weighing modestly on sentiment in pre-market trading.

There are no additional economic reports in the U.S. today which will leave investors focused on any insight Fed Chair Powell offers on either the economy or monetary policy plans when he speaks in Sweden at a Riksbank symposium beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Hawkish Fed speak out of Daly and Bostic is what caused stocks to reverse early gains and close lower yesterday, so if Powell strikes a hawkish tone and pushes back against the market’s latest optimism for a lower terminal rate (below 5%), that could see stocks extend yesterday’s afternoon selloff and the market give back some or all of Friday’s post-jobs report gains.

Finally, The Treasury will hold a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could signal the bond markets response to Powell (if he even says anything notable). A weak outcome to the auction and rising yields could amplify any hawkish money flows and result in more broad market volatility.

CPI Takeaways and Updated FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does the CPI Report Mean for Markets?
  • FOMC Preview: Post CPI Report (Encore Edition)
  • Fibonacci Retracement Levels Remain Pivotal for the S&P 500 – Chart

S&P 500 futures are little changed, notably hovering within a few points of their pre-CPI levels from yesterday as traders await the December Fed decision.

Economically, U.K. CPI favorably dropped sharply from 2.0% in October to 0.4% in November, below estimates of 0.6% in the latest sign of easing global inflation pressures.

China is moving forward with economic/Covid policy meetings this week after previously saying they would be postponed pointing to a potential reopening occurring sooner than later.

Today, there is just one economic report due early in the day: Import & Export Prices (E: -0.5%, -0.6%) but unless there is a huge surprise the numbers are not likely to have an impact on equities with the Fed looming.

Turning to the Fed, the FOMC Announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET with markets pricing in a high likelihood of a 50 bp hike while the market will be focused on the “dot plot.” A terminal rate of 5% or above will be viewed as hawkish and likely weigh on stocks.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference is at 2:30 p.m. ET and his tone could very well decide the final direction of stocks into the close today (a stubbornly hawkish stance remains a threat to equities and other risk assets right now).

Was Powell’s Speech That Bullish? No. Here’s Why.

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Powell’s Speech That Bullish?  No.  Here’s Why
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest yesterday’s post-Powell speech rally and focus on key economic data today (manufacturing PMI) and tomorrow (jobs report).

Global economic data underwhelmed overnight, as the Euro Zone manufacturing PMI missed estimates (47.1 vs. (E) 47.3) while the UK manufacturing PMI remained firmly in contraction territory (46.5 vs. (E) 46.2).

Looking forward to today, there are three important economic reports including (in order of importance):  ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.9), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 5.0% y/y), and Jobless Claims (E: 235K).  Markets will want to see 1) More evidence of easing price pressures in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Core PCE Price Index and 2) Further labor market deterioration in jobless claims if the data is to help extend yesterday’s rally.

We also get three Fed speakers today, Logan (9:25 a.m. ET), Bowman (9:30 a.m. ET), and Barr (3:00 p.m. ET), but their commentary should be largely overshadowed by Powell’s less hawkish-than-feared remarks yesterday and I don’t expect them to move markets.

Powell Speech Cheat Sheet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Topics to Watch During Powell’s Speech Today
  • More Signs of Disinflation
  • Chart – Has the Dollar Bottomed?

Stock futures are cautiously higher as traders look ahead to Powell’s speech today while international markets were mixed following some key economic data overnight.

The Eurozone HICP Flash (their CPI equivalent) fell to 10.0% in November from 10.7% in October (E: 10.6%), offering fresh evidence that inflation may have finally peaked in Europe while China’s Composite PMI was worse than expected. The soft data in China however was shrugged off thanks to continued optimism about easing Covid restrictions by the government.

Today is lining up to be a busy day with markets focusing on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 200K), GDP (E: 2.7%), International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.6B), JOLTS (E: 10.4M), and Pending Home Sales (E: -5.0%) all due out this morning.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers through midday: Bowman (8:50 a.m. ET) and Cook (12:35 p.m. ET) before focus will turn to Powell’s speech in the early afternoon (1:30 p.m. ET) which will be the primary potential market catalyst today.