Even so, “deeper production cuts were not the consensus expectation coming into this week’s OPEC+ meeting (only an extension of current policy) and if they are formally agreed upon tomorrow, that will be an incremental positive for the market in the near to medium term,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Then “we could see WTI futures breakout…” Click here to read the full article.
“Trade war headlines have been the main driver of the energy markets, but since late last week, OPEC+ policy expectations, economic data, and inventory/production releases have…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher again as markets ignore more soft economic data and instead focus on incrementally positive U.S./China trade headlines.
China reduced import tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork and that’s being interpreted as a mild positive in the negotiations, and that’s the reason futures are higher.
Economic data again disappointed as Japanese Household Spending and German IP (-1.7% vs. (E) 0.2%) both missed.
Today the key event on the calendar is the jobs report, (E: Jobs: 180K, UE Rate: 3.6%, Wages: 0.3%) and again the stronger the number, the better. We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 96.8) this morning, and given the focus on consumer spending, that number is more important than usual. Like the jobs report, the stronger the number, the better for stocks.
Finally, regarding trade, Larry Kudlow will speak on CNBC at 9:30 so we’ll likely get another non-specific, yet positive, update on the U.S./China trade “mood music,” so don’t be surprised if you see a temporary pop in stocks right at the open.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures were tentatively higher overnight amid mostly quiet news flows until another trade war “tape bomb” triggered rapid risk-off money flows over the last hour.
Speaking in London before this week’s NATO meeting, President Trump said that he “had no deadline” for a trade deal with China and he thought it might be “better to wait until after the election” to make a deal.
The comments lower the odds that a “phase one” deal is agreed upon before the Dec. 15 tariffs are due to go into effect.
In the wake of Trump’s comments this morning, focus will remain almost exclusively on the trade war and any further comments by the U.S. or reaction by China will move markets.
As far as the calendar goes, there is one economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 17.0M) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.
“Geopolitics, and more specifically the threat of more military activity between the U.S. and Iran, is one of the only remaining bullish factors supporting the…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are rising with EU shares this morning as investors welcome news that Christine Lagarde (largely viewed as a dove) will likely succeed Mario Draghi as ECB President.
In the bond market, global yields hit new lows overnight (the 10-Yr touched 1.94%) on the dovish Lagarde news, but also as China’s June Composite PMI fell to 50.6 from 51.5 in May. The EU data was slightly better than expected, however, which has helped yields stabilize this morning.
Gold is also notably higher by 1.43% today and futures tested recently established multi-year highs overnight thanks to the dovish money flows.
Markets close at 1:00 p.m. today however there are multiple economic reports due out in the U.S. that warrant watching as they have the potential to move markets: ADP Employment Report (E: 140K), International Trade (E: -$53.4B), Jobless Claims (E: 220K), Factory Orders (E: -0.5%), and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 55.8).
“Oil did not go into free-fall [Tuesday] because of any supply side disappointment or OPEC+ developments, but because of…” Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
“The trade truce is a positive and the policy extension by OPEC+ keeps the supply side argument in favor of the bulls, but there remain too many unknowns about…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Tyler Richey was quoted in Bloomberg on May 20, 2019. “You’ve got some conflicting influences on the market and the price action today is pretty indicative of that…” Click here to read the full article.
Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., said President Trump’s Twitter post last week saying oil prices were “getting too high,” and telling OPEC not to reduce production too much, will continue to work as a bearish counterweight to OPEC. “Trump’s tweet targeting OPEC+ policies from last week is still simmering…” Click here to read the full article.
