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Why The Fed Was More Bullish Than It Seems

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why The Fed Meeting Was More Bullish Than It Seems
  • Why the UK Election Matters to You (Good/Bad/Ugly Preview)
  • EIA Update – Where Will Oil Go?

Futures are slightly higher following a generally quiet night as markets digest yesterday’s Fed meeting and wait on important trade news and the results of the UK election.

Today is a big day in the U.S./China trade as Trump is meeting with senior advisors to decide the fate of the 12/15 tariff increases.  It’s widely expected they will be delayed and if they are not, that will be a negative shock for markets.

Economic data was again mixed as Euro Zone IP missed (-0.5% vs. (E) -0.3%) while German CPI met expectations.

Today will be a busy day.  First, regarding the trade meeting, it’s unclear if a formal announcement will be made on the decision, but it could come at any time so markets will be watching the tape closely.  Additionally, there is also an ECB Meeting this morning and it’s new ECB President Lagarde’s first press conference.  Finally, we should know the results of the UK election by this evening, and the key number for the Torys is 335 seats.  Stocks will like any result above that number.

On the economic front, the only notable report is Jobless Claims (E: 213K).

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on December 2, 2019

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“Trade war headlines have been the main driver of the energy markets, but since late last week, OPEC+ policy expectations, economic data, and inventory/production releases have…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Interviewed with TD Ameritrade Network on November 21, 2019

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Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey was interviewed by Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network, discussing oil, energy trade war, commodities and more…Click here to watch the full interview.

TD Ameritrade Interview

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey was Quoted in MarketWatch on November 14, 2019

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The bearish supply and production data by the Energy Information Administration and “lack of clarity” on the U.S.’s plans for tariff policy changes as part of the phase one trade deal with China, are “both negative influences on the market…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

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Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on October 8, 2019

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“The rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the last 24 hours has resulted in a broad risk-off move. Oil is being dragged down with stocks and other assets sensitive to global growth expectations, which continue to fall under pressure…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on September 30, 2019

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“Those comments about Saudi oil production and capacity by Al-Buainain were certainly a bearish catalyst for today’s price weakness. Speculation that production would be back online much quicker than initially thought was the main driver of…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on September 25, 2019

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U.S. supplies rose more than expected last week, though was “largely offset by the less-bearish to mildly bullish inventory statistics for the refined products…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full report.

Oil Tanks

Tyler Richey Quoted in Rexford Register on September 20, 2019

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The report also showed that U.S. oil output held steady last week at 12.4 million barrels a day, just 100,000 barrels a day less than the all-time high reached last month… said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey

Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on September 17, 2019

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“Going forward, the main driver of prices will be time, specifically how long the Saudi…” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note on Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Fed Meeting Preview and Saudi Oil Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Two Sectors that Will Benefit from the Saudi Oil Attacks
  • What the Attacks on Saudi Oil Infrastructure Mean for Oil

Futures are suffering mild losses this morning while international markets were little changed overnight as oil prices are stabilizing, economic data was mixed, and investor focus is shifting to the Fed.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey showed the Current Conditions index fell to –19.9 vs. (E) -15.0 but the Business Expectations figure was encouragingly –22.5 vs. (E) -38.0, easing concerns about the future outlook for the EU economy.

The PBOC left rates unchanged overnight, disappointing some investors looking for a cut after a recent string of soft economic data which weighed on Asian markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and the Housing Market Index (E: 66) but a sense of “Fed paralysis” is already falling over the markets as focus turns to tomorrow’s announcement and press conference.

Lastly, after oil’s huge moves yesterday, the energy complex will continue to get attention and with the geopolitical situation still very fluid, oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions could affect trading in stocks today.