There’s a resurgence in COVID-19 fears as case counts are rising sharply in parts of Asia, while the ‘Delta variant’ of the virus is…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures are trading solidly higher this morning amid infrastructure deal optimism ahead of key data today.
Risk on money flows are being driven by reports that a roughly $1T-$1.2T infrastructure deal, that will not require changes to individual or corporate tax rates, is “imminent.”
This morning is lining up to be a busy one from a catalysts standpoint as there are several important economic reports to watch including: Durable Goods Orders (E: 2.0%), Final Q1 GDP (6.4%), International Trade in Goods (E: -$87.9B), and Jobless Claims (E: 380K).
Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak: Williams (11:00 a.m. ET), Kaplan (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bullard (1:00 p.m. ET) while there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Bottom line, investors will want to see economic data remain strong today but importantly not run “too hot” as that could spark renewed hawkish concerns and weigh on broader equity markets as we saw last week. Additionally, Fed chatter can continue to lean hawkish but not so much that we see policy expectations turn more hawkish than the post-Fed reaction. Finally, today’s 7-Yr Treasury Note auction is the wildcard to watch as if it is a repeat of the February disaster, bond market volatility could spill over into equity markets.
The rise in the dollar was certainly a renewed headwind for oil and all commodities, prompting some cross-asset funds…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
After nearly a year of anti-climactic FOMC meetings, tomorrow’s meeting has the potential to move markets because it…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet night and ahead of the week’s two big events, the ECB decision and U.S. May CPI report.
Economic data was sparse although Japanese PPI rose more than expected at 4.9% vs. (E) 3.8% yoy. But, investors expect high inflation readings this month so it’s not moving markets.
Today the two key events are the ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) and U.S. CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 4.6% y/y). Generally speaking, if the ECB is specific on tapering and core CPI runs close to 4.0% yoy (expectations are for 3.4% yoy in Core CPI) then we should expect volatility as the data will imply less central bank accommodation and more inflation. Conversely, if the ECB is vague on tapering and inflation largely meets expectations, then stocks can extend the rally.
The other notable event this morning is Jobless Claims (E: 369K) but given the issues with the labor market are supply driven (people not wanting to work) the market isn’t as focused on jobless claims any longer.
The market just had a strong feel to it once things stabilized after an early session washout to the downside. It’s almost as if the overnight run to… said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed ahead of this morning’s jobs report and following a mostly quiet night of news.
Economic data was mixed overnight as the UK Construction PMI beat estimates while Euro Zone Retail Sales missed, but neither number is moving markets.
Infrastructure “chatter” about a potential $1 trillion compromise is getting louder, but markets remain skeptical about an infrastructure deal anytime soon.
Focus today will be on the Jobs Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds 645K, UE Rate 5.9%, Wages 0.2% m/m). Thursday’s strong employment data (ADP and claims) makes the market more sensitive to a “Too Hot” report (and potentially less dovish Fed) than it was on Wednesday, but the bottom line is that a number near either extreme (900k or 300k) will likely cause at least a temporary market headwind.
Also, Fed Chair Powell is speaking at a Bank of International Settlements Climate panel right now, but that shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a generally quiet night of news, although on the margin markets are seeing global central banks get less dovish.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had hawkish commentary, while overnight the Bank of Korea hinted at a rate hike before year-end. Neither the Reserve Bank of New Zealand nor the Bank of Korea will move markets, but the bottom line is we are seeing a global rising tide of “less dovish” central bank policy, and that’s likely to cause volatility as we move forward throughout the year.
There was no market moving economic data overnight.
Today we get several notable economic reports including (in order of importance): Jobless Claims (E: 450K), Durable Goods (E: 0.7%), Revised Q2 GDP (6.5%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.0%). Bottom line, markets will want to see solid, but not “Too Hot” economic data, and if we get that result the data should help stocks rally today.
There is some chatter about demand concerns “with new lockdown measures being imposed in India and other COVID-19 hotspots around the globe, however…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye intereviewed with Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade, discussing the recent oil rally, solar sector, Goldman Sachs and more. Click here to watch the full interview.
