From a futures market standpoint, bullish energy calls from big banks including Goldman Sachs and major oil traders like…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Both oil and natural gas are expected to continue higher in the months ahead as fundamentals decidedly favor…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher as the rally continued overnight as China injected more liquidity into their economy.
Chinese officials injected another 17 billion yuan into the economy to prevent any liquidity issues, as it’s now clear that Chinese officials won’t allow a disorderly default (and that’s really all global markets care about).
Economic data disappointed as both the EZ and UK flash composite PMIs missed expectations (EZ PMIs fell to 56.1 vs. (E) 58.9 while UK PMI dropped to 54.1 vs. (E) 54.7).
Focus today will be on economic data, specifically the Flash Composite PMI (E: 55.5) and Jobless Claims (E: 309K). Markets will want to see both numbers confirm what the Philly Fed and Empire survey implied last week, namely that the surge in COVID cases was a temporary and limited headwind on the economy. If that’s the case the rebound in stocks should continue.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following potentially positive news out of China.
First, on the geopolitical front, Biden and Xi held a call on Thursday night where they discussed avoiding conflict. Second, Chinese regulators clarified they just slowed video game approvals, not halted them and that’s helping Chinese tech and internet stocks to rally.
On COVID, Biden’s mask mandates are getting a lot of headlines but they won’t have any direct market implications.
Today’s focus will be on PPI (E: 0.6%, 8.3%), which will give us the latest insights into inflation and if the number is materially higher than estimates, it will likely cause some mild volatility. We also have one Fed speaker, Mester at 9:00 a.m. ET, and markets will look for confirmation that the Fed will start tapering QE this year, but it will be gradual.
How demand expectations change in the wake of the storm will depend…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, according to MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
The group’s leadership reiterated commitment to stable market conditions and flexibility in…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a very quiet night of news as investors position for tomorrow’s jobs report.
Euro Zone PPI was much hotter than expected, rising 2.3% vs. (E) 1.2%, and that is the second consecutive strong inflation number from the EU.
There were no new infrastructure or COVID headlines overnight, and investors continue to add exposure ahead of an anticipated “Goldilocks” jobs report.
Today’s focus will be on economic data, especially Jobless Claims (E: 350K) and Unit Labor Costs (which is contained in Productivity & Costs). Unit Labor Costs are expected to rise 1.0% but if the number comes in decidedly higher than that, it will add to inflation fears (and could be a mild headwind on stocks today).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest this week’s rally.
Chinese shares saw profit taking (Hang Seng down –2%) and that’s weighing on global stocks slightly, but there was no materially negative news out of China overnight.
Economic data was sparse as the German Gfk Consumer Climate slightly missed expectations (-1.2 vs. –1.0) while the Euro Zone money supply met estimates (up 8.1%).
Today we do get two economic reports including Jobless Claims (E: 340K) and revised Q2 GDP (E: 6.6%) but neither number should move markets unless they are major surprises. Instead, pre-Powell speech positioning will likely dominate markets today (Powell’s speech is tomorrow) and given stocks hit new highs this week, don’t be surprised if there’s some mild profit taking ahead of Powell’s speech tomorrow. Finally, in the bond markets, there’s a seven year Treasury auction mid-day today, and if the results are soft look for a continued rally in the 10 year yield (and an improving technical outlook for that yield).
Thank You!
I wanted to say a heartfelt, “Thank you” to all of you who sent me condolences and well wishes over the past week.
While I wish I could respond to each individual email or call, there have literally been hundreds of them, and if I took on that endeavor I’d have no time to write the Report! I believe that continuing to stay focused on the
markets and helping us to navigate this unprecedented time successfully is the best way I can show you my thanks, and you can count on me to do just that.
Again, thank you all. You have made this time easier.
What’s in Today’s Report:
There are risk-off money flows across asset classes this morning as investors fear that central banks are poised to tighten policy into a global economic slowdown this fall.
This week’s options expiration is likely amplifying the volatility this morning.
There were no market-moving economic reports or material news developments overnight.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 360K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 25.0).
No Fed officials are scheduled to speak today but there is a 30-Year TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bond yields.
Volatility is likely to remain elevated today as we get closer to tomorrow’s options expiration while trader conviction is low given Jackson Hole looming next week as well as the fact that investor sentiment has deteriorated this week.
Editor’s Note: No Report Tomorrow
There will be no Report tomorrow, as I will be attending a funeral. Last week, my father, Tim Essaye, Sr., unexpectedly passed away. His funeral and memorial will be held today.
My dad helped get me on Wall Street when I got out of college and without his support and encouragement, I wouldn’t have had the courage, with my wife Alison pregnant with our first child, to leave a good job and start a new, daily market report.
He was the first subscriber to the Sevens Report.
So, for the first time in the nearly 10 years since I started the Sevens Report, there will be no issue on a trading day, as I will be focused today on celebrating his life with our family and friends.
I apologize for this inconvenience and thank you for your understanding.
If support holds, which it likely will as long as the news flow regarding COVID does not continue to…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report has told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
