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Why Stocks Rallied Yesterday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Rallied
  • Jobs Report Preview (Redux)
  • Is the VIX Fixed? (Chart)
  • Oil Update: Demand Rebound Helps Energy Markets Stabilize

Stock futures are trading modestly lower with EU markets this morning as traders digest yesterday’s gains ahead of today’s June jobs report.

Sadly, former PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has died after an assassination attempt at a campaign stop overnight.

Economically, Japanese Household Spending fell -1.9% vs. (E) +1.2%  in May, rekindling concerns about the health of global growth.

Looking into today’s session, the focus will be almost entirely on the June Employment Situation report from the BLS (E: Job Adds 270K, Unemployment Rate 3.6%, Wages 5.0% y/y) which is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. There is also one Fed official speaking this morning: Williams (8:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. ET).

Bottom line, the market will want to see jobs data that meets our “Just Right” scenario from our Jobs Report Preview which would suggest we are seeing slowing growth in the labor market, yet not a full-on collapse, and increase hopes we are close to or beyond “peak hawkishness” from the Fed. That would open the door to a continued relief rally, however, a report that is either too strong or overly disappointing could send stock falling sharply today.

Have Bond Yields Peaked?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stocks Starting to Signal Bond Yields Have Peaked?
  • Growth Is Beginning to Outperform Value; Will It Last?
  • Oil Tumbles Through Technical Trend Support: Chart

Futures are flat while international markets were mixed overnight as investors continue to weigh recession fears against a slightly less hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations.

The 10s-2s yield curve spread notably inverted overnight as the odds of a recession in the quarters ahead continue to rise.

Economically, Eurozone Retail Sales edged up just 0.2% vs. (E) 0.4% in May which was the latest data point to show a slowdown in consumer spending amid high inflation, further compounding worries about global growth.

Looking into today’s session, there is one Fed speaker ahead of the bell (Williams at 9:00 a.m. ET) and the focus will be on economic data with the ISM Services Index (E: 54.8) and JOLTS (E: 11.250M) both due out shortly after the open.

The market will want to see a continued moderation in growth to show the Fed’s policy actions are working to slow demand, but not too weak to suggest we are quickly fading into a recession.

From there, the focus will shift to the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET as investors look for new insight into the Fed’s view of the economy and potential clues as to whether we have reached “peak hawkishness” yet, or not. If there is evidence peak hawkishness is behind us, yesterday’s risk-on money flows could continue today.

Are Stocks Pricing in an Economic Contraction?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – Are Stocks Pricing in an Economic Contraction?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Is Stagflation Imminent?

Stock futures are trading modestly lower with European markets this morning as recession fears continue to weigh on sentiment.

Economically, global Composite PMI data was better than feared but broader concerns of a slowdown remain.

Today, investor focus will be on economic data early with Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 13.5M) and Factory Orders (E: 0.5%) both due out before the opening bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET which may move bond markets and ultimately move equities.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on June 27th, 2022

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Oil prices end higher for a second session as better-than-expected U.S. economic data ease demand worries

Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on June 23rd 2022

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Don’t trust the stock-market bounce until S&P 500 is back above 3,800: analysts

Since the beginning of last week, 3,800 has become a new ceiling for the S&P 500 as sellers have repeatedly stepped in and overwhelmed the tentative, weakhanded bids…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note. Click here to read the full article.

What Would A Recession Mean for Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would A Recession Mean for Markets?

Futures are moderately higher thanks mostly to momentum from Thursday’s close and despite more underwhelming economic data.

Economically, UK Retail Sales met expectations but fell sharply (–4.7% yoy) while the German Ifo Business Expectations Index missed estimates (85.8 vs. (E) 87.3).

Geo-politically, Russia continues to advance in the Donbas as Ukraine has withdrawn from the city of Severodonetsk.

Today focus will be on the inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and if we see a decline below 3.3% that could further the idea that inflation is peaking (and extend the rally in stocks).  Other data today includes New Home Sales (E: 587K) and one Fed speaker, Daly at 4:00 p.m. ET, but they shouldn’t move markets.

An Important Technical Level to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Important Technical Level to Watch

Futures are slightly higher despite disappointing economic data and a greater than expected rate hike from another foreign central bank.

June flash PMIs were mixed as the EU flash Composite PMI dropped sharply (51.9 vs. (E) 54.0) while the UK flash Composite PMI slightly beat estimates (53.1 vs. (E) 52.7).

The Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) became the latest central bank to hike more than expected (50 bps vs. 25 bps).

Today’s focus will be on economic data via the Flash Composite PMI  (E: 56.3) and Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the market will be looking for moderation in the data (small declines that imply Fed hikes are working, but not drastic declines that imply economic growth is careening off a cliff).  We also get the second half of Powell’s Congressional Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, but that shouldn’t yield any surprises.

Finally, oil continues to be one of the most important short-term market influences.  If oil can fall further, that will put a tailwind on stocks.

Is the Yield Curve Signaling an Imminent Recession?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Yield Curve Clearly Signaling an Imminent Recession?
  • Chart: Oil Testing Critical Support

Stock futures are sharply lower with global shares as much of yesterday’s rally is being given back amid a resurgence in growth concerns ahead of Powell’s testimony today.

U.K. CPI met estimates at 9.1% but Input PPI jumped 22.1% vs. (E) 19.4% stoking fears that central banks will have to be even more aggressive to get inflation under control in the months ahead.

There are no notable economic reports today but there are multiple Fed speakers: Barkin (9:00 a.m. & 12:00 p.m. ET), Powell (9:30 a.m. ET), Evans (12:55 p.m. ET), and Harker (1:30 p.m. ET).

Then in the afternoon, there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equity markets.

Bottom line, the focus will be on Powell’s testimony before the House this morning as there has been a resurgence in concerns about global growth in the face of the latest broad shift to more aggressive central bank policy in response to sticky and elevated inflation pressures globally. And if Powell is seen as getting more hawkish, or the market shows signs of losing confidence in the Fed’s policy plans, we could potentially see stocks test the 2022 lows.

Three Keys to a Bottom Updated (Not Good)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom Updated (Not Good)
  • Weekly Market Preview: All About the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Survey Data in Focus

Global stocks are trading sharply lower and bond yields rose to new multi-year highs overnight amid fears that the Fed is getting more aggressive into an economic slowdown.

In the wake of Friday’s hot CPI report, rate markets are now pricing in a 75 basis point hike by the Fed in the next three months which saw the 10s-2s spread invert overnight underscoring renewed and growing recession worries.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports, and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There are two Treasury Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET (3-Month Bills and 6-Month Bills). And while they are typically lesser followed, the results could shed light on market expectations of Fed policy in the coming months and if we see rates continue to surge higher, especially those with shorter duration, then concerns about a more aggressive stance by the Fed will likely keep pressure on risk assets today.

The State of Inflation (CPI Preview and Inflation Expectations Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The State of Inflation:  CPI Preview and Inflation Expectations Update
  • EIA Data and Oil Market Analysis (How High Can The Rally Go?)

Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce back from Wednesday’s declines following mixed news from China.

Positively, Chinese authorities may allow ANT Group to IPO, which is another sign China is easing pressure on tech companies. Additionally, Chinese exports handily beat estimates (16.9% vs. (E) 8.0%).

Negatively, Shanghai and Beijing reimposed some COVID restrictions, showing “Zero COVID” remains in effect.

Today focus will be on the ECB Rate Decision, and while no rate hike is expected, President Lagarde is expected to hint that a rate hike is coming in July and another rate hike is coming later this year (if it’s more hawkish than that, that will be a headwind on global stocks).  We also get Jobless Claims (E: 210K) but that shouldn’t move markets.