The nation’s refineries simply don’t have the ability to absorb those new barrels of oil suddenly hitting the market and therefore, physical refined product markets remain tight and prices are still elevated…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The nation’s refineries simply don’t have the ability to absorb those new barrels [of oil] suddenly hitting the market and therefore, physical refined product markets remain tight and prices are still elevated…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The Energy Information Administration data showed a healthy rebound in gasoline demand, easing some recent concerns about demand destruction in gasoline markets…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly lower with EU markets this morning as traders digest yesterday’s gains ahead of today’s June jobs report.
Sadly, former PM of Japan, Shinzo Abe, has died after an assassination attempt at a campaign stop overnight.
Economically, Japanese Household Spending fell -1.9% vs. (E) +1.2% in May, rekindling concerns about the health of global growth.
Looking into today’s session, the focus will be almost entirely on the June Employment Situation report from the BLS (E: Job Adds 270K, Unemployment Rate 3.6%, Wages 5.0% y/y) which is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. There is also one Fed official speaking this morning: Williams (8:30 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. ET).
Bottom line, the market will want to see jobs data that meets our “Just Right” scenario from our Jobs Report Preview which would suggest we are seeing slowing growth in the labor market, yet not a full-on collapse, and increase hopes we are close to or beyond “peak hawkishness” from the Fed. That would open the door to a continued relief rally, however, a report that is either too strong or overly disappointing could send stock falling sharply today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are flat while international markets were mixed overnight as investors continue to weigh recession fears against a slightly less hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations.
The 10s-2s yield curve spread notably inverted overnight as the odds of a recession in the quarters ahead continue to rise.
Economically, Eurozone Retail Sales edged up just 0.2% vs. (E) 0.4% in May which was the latest data point to show a slowdown in consumer spending amid high inflation, further compounding worries about global growth.
Looking into today’s session, there is one Fed speaker ahead of the bell (Williams at 9:00 a.m. ET) and the focus will be on economic data with the ISM Services Index (E: 54.8) and JOLTS (E: 11.250M) both due out shortly after the open.
The market will want to see a continued moderation in growth to show the Fed’s policy actions are working to slow demand, but not too weak to suggest we are quickly fading into a recession.
From there, the focus will shift to the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET as investors look for new insight into the Fed’s view of the economy and potential clues as to whether we have reached “peak hawkishness” yet, or not. If there is evidence peak hawkishness is behind us, yesterday’s risk-on money flows could continue today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly lower with European markets this morning as recession fears continue to weigh on sentiment.
Economically, global Composite PMI data was better than feared but broader concerns of a slowdown remain.
Today, investor focus will be on economic data early with Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 13.5M) and Factory Orders (E: 0.5%) both due out before the opening bell.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET which may move bond markets and ultimately move equities.
Economic data last week was pretty dismal and weighed on energy products and commodities broadly, but Monday’s numbers came in better than expected — providing support for oil…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Since the beginning of last week, 3,800 has become a new ceiling for the S&P 500 as sellers have repeatedly stepped in and overwhelmed the tentative, weakhanded bids…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher thanks mostly to momentum from Thursday’s close and despite more underwhelming economic data.
Economically, UK Retail Sales met expectations but fell sharply (–4.7% yoy) while the German Ifo Business Expectations Index missed estimates (85.8 vs. (E) 87.3).
Geo-politically, Russia continues to advance in the Donbas as Ukraine has withdrawn from the city of Severodonetsk.
Today focus will be on the inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and if we see a decline below 3.3% that could further the idea that inflation is peaking (and extend the rally in stocks). Other data today includes New Home Sales (E: 587K) and one Fed speaker, Daly at 4:00 p.m. ET, but they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher despite disappointing economic data and a greater than expected rate hike from another foreign central bank.
June flash PMIs were mixed as the EU flash Composite PMI dropped sharply (51.9 vs. (E) 54.0) while the UK flash Composite PMI slightly beat estimates (53.1 vs. (E) 52.7).
The Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) became the latest central bank to hike more than expected (50 bps vs. 25 bps).
Today’s focus will be on economic data via the Flash Composite PMI (E: 56.3) and Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the market will be looking for moderation in the data (small declines that imply Fed hikes are working, but not drastic declines that imply economic growth is careening off a cliff). We also get the second half of Powell’s Congressional Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, but that shouldn’t yield any surprises.
Finally, oil continues to be one of the most important short-term market influences. If oil can fall further, that will put a tailwind on stocks.