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Why Are Markets Ignoring Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Again?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Markets Ignore Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines (Again)?
  • Chart: Oil Prices Remain Subdued Despite Geopolitical Escalations

Futures are higher on hopes that another last-minute U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal will be reached before tomorrow’s deadline with slim chances of a U.S. extension this time around.

Meanwhile, domestic traders are awaiting Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill today as any hints at the potential futures policy path (particularly dovish commentary) could move markets.

Economically, U.K. Unemployment fell to 4.9% vs. (E) 5.2% in April while the German ZEW Survey badly missed estimates, however global market focus remains largely on the fragile geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

There are two notable economic reports due out in the U.S. today with Retail Sales (E: 1.4%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) scheduled to be released this morning.

In addition to Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing (beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET), Waller will speak this afternoon (2:30 p.m. ET) and there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, all of which have the potential to impact bond yields and subsequently influence equity markets.

Finally, earnings season continues with UNH ($6.48), GE ($1.63), MMM ($2.02), ISRG ($1.63), UAL ($1.08), and COF ($4.61) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

Tom Essaye Warns Rally Lacks Confirmation From Key Markets

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Tom Essaye says stocks may be moving too fast without support from bonds and oil.

U.S. stocks may be moving past the Iran conflict — but these markets aren’t sending the ‘all clear’ just yet

That could be a sign that investors should think twice before chasing the rally in stocks, said Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, in commentary shared with MarketWatch.

“While we are happy stocks have rebounded, this furious 10-day rally has not been confirmed by other asset classes, most notably Treasury yields and oil prices, and we do think that nonconfirmation should give some stock investors cause for pause,” Essaye said.

“If the oil markets were as confident about a lasting detente between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices would be solidly lower,” Essaye said in written commentary. He also pointed out that the 2-year Treasury yield is still well above its prewar level, signaling that bond traders aren’t as confident that the Fed will cut interest rates later in the year.

“Now, to be clear, this nonconfirmation does not automatically mean that stocks are ‘wrong’ and oil/Treasurys are ‘right.’ Treasury yields could fall sharply in the coming days to confirm the move in stocks and oil could plunge on any announcement of a more permanent ceasefire,” Essaye added.

“However, it does show us that not all traders and strategists are viewing the impacts of the war as being so ‘transitory’ as the move in stocks implies.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on April 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices as Iran continued attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Iran attacked additional oil tankers overnight, setting at least two tankers ablaze off Iraq and that pushed oil back above $90/bbl, which weighed on futures.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will stay on the war and put simply, the sooner hostilities abate and ships move through the Strait of Hormuz again, the better for markets.  Any progress towards that will pressure oil and boost stocks and any increased attacks on tankers will boost oil and pressure stocks.

Outside of the conflict, there are two notable economic reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Housing Starts (E: 1.34M) and the stronger the numbers, the better as the last thing this market needs is a sudden growth scare.

Finally, earnings continue today and some important reports include: ADBE ($4.85), ULTA ($7.99), DG ($1.61) and DKS ($3.36).

 

Focus Will Remain On Geopolitical Headlines

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Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines

Stocks Are Falling as Oil Prices Head Higher

“Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on March 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Situation in Venezuela is Actually Bullish for Prices – Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

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The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end 3% higher for the week as Venezuela looks to run out of storage capacity

The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, as its state-owned PDVSA has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil prices Friday also found support from unrest in Iran and Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch

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Oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran Says Tyler Richey

Oil rises 3% this week — and not just because of Venezuela

For now, oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran, and from Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Venezuela continues to be in the spotlight, and the near-term impact of the situation there is actually also bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, Richey told MarketWatch.

The state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, he said.

That eventually could pressure prices lower, as Venezuela has nowhere to put the barrels still flowing out of the ground — leaving it in a very similar debacle to that which the U.S. found itself in back in April 2020, when storage hit capacity and some operators were forced to pay someone to take delivery of their oil, Richey noted. That might be an area where President Trump may want U.S. oil companies to step in with help.

That’s an amount of oil that will no longer be going to China or Russia — and the demand for those barrels hasn’t changed overnight, so they will need to be sourced elsewhere, “temporarily tightening global physical-market dynamics,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Year-End Window Dressing Push Stocks Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Quiet Week, But The Labor Market Will Stay in Focus

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news and as the Trump/Zelensky meeting failed to produce material progress on peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitically, markets were hopeful that the Trump/Zelensky meeting over the weekend would yield a formal agreement, but it did not (just more “progress”) and oil prices are rising moderately (2%) in response.

Notably, gold, silver and copper are all down 2% – 4% pre-market but that’s likely due to year-end positioning.

Today the calendar is generally quiet so focus will be on any signs of geopolitical progress (Russia/Ukraine). Oil remains the best barometer for geo-political concerns and despite the bounce in oil this morning, geo-political concerns from the market remain low (despite numerous unsettled situations including Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and, now, Venezuela).  There is also one economic report today, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch on June 23rd, 2023

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Oil prices see weekly fall as central banks stoke recession worries

This heavy price action with repetitive tests of the same support and continuously weaker recoveries suggests the oil market is approaching a tipping point; poised to either break down to new 2023 lows or finally move beyond the $72-$73 area, triggering a squeeze as sentiment and positioning in the energy markets is very bearish, noted analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on April 19, 2021

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Oil prices gain as traders mull demand cues, supply prospects

There is some chatter about demand concerns “with new lockdown measures being imposed in India and other COVID-19 hotspots around the globe, however…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on October 16, 2020

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“The not-too distant memory of negative oil prices still stings traders across the space as the threat of another supply chain crunch would rise exponentially with…” analysts wrote in the latest newsletter from Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.