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What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.

 

Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme says Tyler Richey

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Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now said Tyler Richey

Oil futures lose more than 11%, as energy ministers consider release of emergency crude reserves

“Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. It is “safe to expect more volatility in the sessions ahead regardless of the direction, as the market has become almost entirely headline-driven with keen focus on the Middle East,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Morningstar published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fundamental Focus of the Oil Market Has Shifted: Oil Futures

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Oil Futures Touch Fresh Highs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures touch fresh highs for the year on bets for tighter global supplies

“The fundamental focus of the oil market has shifted from demand — more specifically concerns that a slowdown in global growth will hurt consumer spending on refined products — to the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia caught markets off guard with their output cut extension announcements,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter.

Factoring in the extended cuts, “many forecasts reflect deepening supply deficits in physical markets into the end of the year and that, paired with another wave of speculators getting scared out of the market by the latest OPEC+ surprise, has resulted in the latest leg higher to fresh 2023 highs in oil,” they said.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is higher for oil right now, with WTI “fast approaching our initial upside target of $89 [a] barrel,” the Sevens Report analysts said. “However, we remain in the camp that the onset of a recession will derail the rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch on June 9th, 2023

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U.S. oil futures fall for the session, lose more than 2% for the week

Prices had started the week moving higher after Saudi Arabia said it would cut output by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July. However, “traders faded the move,” as the Saudi cut would only remove one-third of a single day’s worth of global oil production over the course of July, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on October 5, 2021

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U.S. oil futures build on a nearly 7-year high; natural-gas prices post highest finish since 2008

Prices also got a boost from forecasts for colder weather later in the week across much…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 24, 2021

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Oil futures moved sharply higher on Monday, with U.S. prices posting their highest settlement in a week, buoyed by some doubts that an Iran nuclear deal will be reached anytime soon. A lack of cooperation by Iran, as well as “skeptical comments about Iranian compliance” by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, both “lower the odds that a new agreement is…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 14, 2021

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Oil prices finish the week higher as pipeline shutdown ‘short lived’

Oil futures climbed on Friday, erasing previous losses to finish higher for the week. “The Colonial Pipeline debacle got most of the attention from energy traders this week…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Co-editor at Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on August 31, 2020

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“The uptrend has clearly lost momentum since the early stages of the Q2 rebound.” However, “the path of least resistance is still higher right…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on July 10, 2020

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Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said oil prices did get a boost after Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, 1.97% said clinical trial data show its antiviral drug remdesivir reduced the risk of death for coronavirus patients by 62%. The news also provided support to the U.S. stock market. “Oil futures have been trading with a high degree of correlation…” said Richey. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2020

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Futures prices traded in contango last month, when the May contract settled negative ahead of its expiration, but the move into backwardation “shows that there is both strong demand for physical crude…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil rig