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The Fundamental Focus of the Oil Market Has Shifted: Oil Futures

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Oil Futures Touch Fresh Highs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures touch fresh highs for the year on bets for tighter global supplies

“The fundamental focus of the oil market has shifted from demand — more specifically concerns that a slowdown in global growth will hurt consumer spending on refined products — to the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia caught markets off guard with their output cut extension announcements,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter.

Factoring in the extended cuts, “many forecasts reflect deepening supply deficits in physical markets into the end of the year and that, paired with another wave of speculators getting scared out of the market by the latest OPEC+ surprise, has resulted in the latest leg higher to fresh 2023 highs in oil,” they said.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is higher for oil right now, with WTI “fast approaching our initial upside target of $89 [a] barrel,” the Sevens Report analysts said. “However, we remain in the camp that the onset of a recession will derail the rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil

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Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch on June 9th, 2023

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U.S. oil futures fall for the session, lose more than 2% for the week

Prices had started the week moving higher after Saudi Arabia said it would cut output by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July. However, “traders faded the move,” as the Saudi cut would only remove one-third of a single day’s worth of global oil production over the course of July, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on October 5, 2021

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U.S. oil futures build on a nearly 7-year high; natural-gas prices post highest finish since 2008

Prices also got a boost from forecasts for colder weather later in the week across much…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 24, 2021

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Oil futures moved sharply higher on Monday, with U.S. prices posting their highest settlement in a week, buoyed by some doubts that an Iran nuclear deal will be reached anytime soon. A lack of cooperation by Iran, as well as “skeptical comments about Iranian compliance” by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, both “lower the odds that a new agreement is…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 14, 2021

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Oil prices finish the week higher as pipeline shutdown ‘short lived’

Oil futures climbed on Friday, erasing previous losses to finish higher for the week. “The Colonial Pipeline debacle got most of the attention from energy traders this week…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Co-editor at Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on August 31, 2020

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“The uptrend has clearly lost momentum since the early stages of the Q2 rebound.” However, “the path of least resistance is still higher right…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on July 10, 2020

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Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said oil prices did get a boost after Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, 1.97% said clinical trial data show its antiviral drug remdesivir reduced the risk of death for coronavirus patients by 62%. The news also provided support to the U.S. stock market. “Oil futures have been trading with a high degree of correlation…” said Richey. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2020

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Futures prices traded in contango last month, when the May contract settled negative ahead of its expiration, but the move into backwardation “shows that there is both strong demand for physical crude…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil rig

What’s Next for Oil?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Oil Crash and Contango Explained
  • Why Is Copper Considered to have a PhD?

Stock futures are enjoying a solid 1%+ bounce this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as oil prices are relatively steady following a two day rout.

WTI crude oil futures, which turned negative on Monday, are wavering between gains and losses this morning but are importantly well above yesterday’s lows ahead of the key weekly EIA inventory report this morning (10:30 ET).

There are no Fed speakers today and just one second tiered economic report that shouldn’t move markets: FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.4%).

Earnings season is in full swing, continuing today with reports from: DAL (-$0.72), T ($0.84), BIIB ($7.74), CSX ($0.92), AA (-$0.29), KMI ($0.24), DFS ($1.80), and STX ($1.29).

Investors remain shaken by the historic surge in oil market volatility this week and energy will continue to be a primary focus of the market today.

And if the EIA print mid-morning is bearish (big inventory builds, resilient U.S. production, low refinery runs), and oil comes for sale again, stocks will likely struggle to maintain this morning’s bid.

Earnings Season Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Keys to the Q1 2020 Earnings Season
  • Oil Futures Point to Mid-Summer Economic Recovery

Futures are higher with most overseas markets today as COVID-19 case growth continues to slow in the U.S., economic data was better than feared overnight and investor focus is shifting ahead to Q1 earnings season.

In March, Chinese exports fell -6.6% vs. (E) -15.0% and imports were down -0.9% vs. (E) -8.0% suggesting the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic may be less than initially feared.

Today, there is one lesser followed economic report: Import and Export Prices (E: 3.1%, -2.0%), and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Bullard (11:05 a.m. ET) and Evans (12:30 p.m. ET).

But, the market’s main focus will be the start of Q1 earnings season, which is going to be extremely important as the corporate results and forecasts will provide much needed context on the outlook for 2020 EPS expectations in the coming weeks. Today, JPM ($2.49), WFC ($0.61), JNJ ($2.08), and FAST ($0.34) all report before the bell while JBHT ($2.22) will release results after the close.