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June MMT Chart: Three Technical Caution Signals

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart – Three Caution Signals

Futures are lower as traders digest the latest geopolitical escalations with the U.S. launching “retaliatory strikes” against Iran overnight after a U.S. military helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday while focus shifts to critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Chinese CPI held steady at 1.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 1.3% in May, helping somewhat ease global inflation worries.

Today, traders will be keenly focused on U.S. inflation data with CPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.2% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) data due out ahead of the open. The latest Treasury Statement (E: $-269.5B) will also be released in the afternoon but is unlikely to move markets.

Beyond the CPI report, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer insight on the bond market’s reaction to this morning’s inflation data, and ultimately impact equities (the stronger the demand, the better for stocks, near-term).

Finally, on the earnings front, quarterly reports are due out from CHWY ($0.24) and ORCL ($1.58), the latter of which could present a fresh catalysts for the shaky AI-trade. A miss could restart heavy selling while strong results could prompt a fresh, squeezy/chase higher in AI, tech, and semiconductor stocks in afterhours trade.

 

Sevens Report – MMT Chart (April Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (April Update)

Futures are little changed as markets tread water ahead of tomorrow’s U.S./Iran peace talks.

Despite conflicting headlines, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding enough for markets to remain stable ahead of face to face meetings Saturday morning.

Economically, the only notable report was German HICP which met expectations (2.8% y/y).

Today geopolitics will remain the dominant force on markets but as long as the face to face meeting Saturday morning isn’t cancelled, geopolitics shouldn’t weigh on markets too much.

Outside of the U.S./Iran war, we get important economic data today via CPI (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y).  With inflation concerns rising, investors will want to see a better than expected Core CPI reading and if that does not happen and Core CPI spikes, it’ll be an additional negative on the market.

There are two other economic reports today, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52) and Factory Orders (E: -0.3%), but neither should move markets.

 

MMT Chart (December Edition)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.