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Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff increases and escalation in the tensions between the White House and Fed.

President Trump increased tariff rates on non-USMCA goods from Canada to 35% and threatened to increase the baseline tariff on all imports to 15% – 20% (from 10%).

Tensions between the White House and Fed rose on Thursday, as the Office of Management and Budget is now investigating the Federal Reserve building renovation.

Today there are no economic reports so trade headlines will be in focus, including the tariff rates on the EU and Taiwan.  Markets have been impressively resilient this week in the face of potentially dramatic tariff escalation, but if negative trade headlines continue throughout the day, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.

Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

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Midyear valuation scenarios show limited upside—and real downside risk if key levels break

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

  • 6,195 = near-term support

  • 6,269 = technical pivot

  • 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

  • Target: 6,600

  • Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

  • Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

  • A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

  • Target range: 4,675–4,950

  • Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

  • Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

  • Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest the latest tariff threats.

Tariff threats from the administration have intensified over the week including the 50% tariff on copper imports and 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, but markets continue to largely ignore them and view it all as a negotiation.

Today focus will be on economic data, trade headlines and earnings.  Starting with the data, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 238K) and markets will want to see continued stability to further support last Friday’s good jobs number (and push back on any slowdown fears).  There are also three Fed speakers today, Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (1:15 p.m. ET and Daly (2:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On trade, markets are still waiting for updates on the EU and Taiwan.  A “deal” with the EU would further reduce trade anxiety while a letter would likely (slightly) escalate trade anxiety.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season starts (effectively) today and some reports we’re watching include:  DAL ($2.01), CAG ($0.59), LEVI ($0.14), PSMT ($1.16), WDFC ($1.43).

 

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Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.

Stock Futures Dip as Tariff Pressures Build — Sevens Report Warns of Long-Term Risks

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Tom Essaye on why markets may be ignoring the true cost of rising global tariffs

Stock futures point to declines as investors face tariffs ‘much higher than anything in decades’

After a strong finish last week, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest declines Monday morning as investors began to confront the growing scale of global tariffs.

According to Sevens Report Research, markets may be underestimating the long-term impact of the tariff wave—one unlike anything seen in decades.

“Tariffs are already coming in higher than markets expected and much higher than anything in decades.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Founder Tom Essaye pointed to new trade deals and policy changes across major economies:

  • Vietnam just signed a deal with 20% baseline tariffs and 40% tariffs on rerouted goods

  • China: 30% tariffs

  • UK: 10% tariffs

  • “A soon-to-be host” of other countries are following suit

Despite this, the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, with momentum continuing to push stocks upward. But Essaye cautioned that these risks are compounding beneath the surface:

“While the path of least resistance is higher… there are real risks building in the distance.”

He also noted that while the recently passed tax and spending bill may provide near-term stimulus, it will increase the national deficit in coming years—adding another layer of risk for investors to consider.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on July 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Tech Leads the Rally, But Breadth Signals Are Flashing | Sevens Report Weighs In

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Tom Essaye says the rally looks healthy—but it’s not without warning signs

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

RECORD HIGHS GET SUPPORT FROM NYSE BREADTH, BUT 200-DAY INDICATORS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY

Wall Street’s rally to new highs continues to be led by tech stocks, but according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the strength may be broader than it looks—though not without its risks.

“The recent advance is broad-based… historically healthy and likely sustainable.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye pointed to new highs in the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) line, a key signal that the rally has expanded beyond just megacap names.

But there’s a catch: only about 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to Sevens Report data—well below May’s 55% high.

“The divergence… is a source of concern,” Essaye wrote. “Some areas show real strength, while others may just be staging bear-market rallies.”

For bulls, Essaye says confirmation would come from more S&P names clearing their 200-DMAs—surpassing the May threshold of 55% would help validate the rally’s staying power.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

All Eyes on Inflation — Tom Essaye Says PCE Report Could Make or Break Rate Cut Hopes

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Markets need a tame report to keep the soft landing story alive: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

EMEA Morning Briefing: Investors Await Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge

Investors are closely watching the PCE inflation report, set for release today, as it remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric.

According to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the market is hoping for a quiet reading to preserve the case for two rate cuts later this year.

“Markets are counting on inflation to stay subdued to keep expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 intact.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

While recent CPI and PPI data have come in light, any surprise to the upside in today’s PCE could push Treasury yields higher and pressure equity markets, Essaye warned.

“If inflation surprises to the upside… that will push yields higher and pressure stocks.”

With stocks near all-time highs and rate cut optimism priced in, a hotter-than-expected inflation print could shift sentiment quickly.

Also, click here to view the full Dow Jones article published in Morningstar on June 27th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.