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Sevens Report Flags Risk of Sharp Reversal in Natural-Gas Prices

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Tyler Richey says futures structure and weather trends argue the rally may fade fast.

Natural-gas prices doubled in the last 5 trading sessions. Here are signs a ‘sharp collapse’ may soon unfold.

With the February natural-gas futures contract expiring at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, it will be “critical” to watch the price of the March contract, which is trading at a roughly $2.50 discount to the February contract, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That leaves the “futures duration curve in a steep backwardation dynamic” — meaning the current price is higher than prices for contracts for delivery further out in the future, Richey told MarketWatch.

The higher near-term prices and lower prices for contracts for delivery in the months ahead also suggest the rally in the February futures contract is based on near-term supply concerns, and “not any longer-term structural market worries of a prolonged supply shortage,” said Sevens Report’s Richey.

At the same time, weather models are forecasting more moderate temperatures in the coming weeks, which should theoretically see the rally in natural-gas prices “subside, assuming there is no lasting damage impacting domestic natural-gas production [and] logistics,” said Richey.

“That could set futures prices up for a sharp collapse in the sessions ahead,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Natural-Gas Market Is Primed For Volatility In The Near Term Says Sevens Report

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Warmer weather could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices extend their rally, but analysts warn of volatility tied to this week’s contract expiration

The natural-gas market is primed for more volatility in the near term, “with multiple dollar price swings” possible as icy and snowy weather continues to pound the eastern part of the U.S. and as below-average temperatures are expected to linger this week, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “But the prospects of warmer weather in early February could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas, with its futures market traditionally one of the most volatile in the entire commodity complex,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Natural Gas Is Clearly In A Weather-Driven Market Dynamic Says Tyler Richey

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The fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices see ‘historic’ surge as U.S. braces for winter storm. What that means for heating bills.

To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be “an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday’s newsletter. “Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Situation in Venezuela is Actually Bullish for Prices – Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

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The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end 3% higher for the week as Venezuela looks to run out of storage capacity

The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, as its state-owned PDVSA has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil prices Friday also found support from unrest in Iran and Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted in MarketWatch

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Oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran Says Tyler Richey

Oil rises 3% this week — and not just because of Venezuela

For now, oil prices have found support from unrest in Iran, and from Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Venezuela continues to be in the spotlight, and the near-term impact of the situation there is actually also bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, Richey told MarketWatch.

The state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, he said.

That eventually could pressure prices lower, as Venezuela has nowhere to put the barrels still flowing out of the ground — leaving it in a very similar debacle to that which the U.S. found itself in back in April 2020, when storage hit capacity and some operators were forced to pay someone to take delivery of their oil, Richey noted. That might be an area where President Trump may want U.S. oil companies to step in with help.

That’s an amount of oil that will no longer be going to China or Russia — and the demand for those barrels hasn’t changed overnight, so they will need to be sourced elsewhere, “temporarily tightening global physical-market dynamics,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

“That leaves very little room for error” – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

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High valuations raise the stakes for U.S. jobs data to come in just right, according to Sevens Report Research

Stocks face their first real test of 2026 with Friday’s pivotal jobs report and possible tariff ruling

On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for investors whether the data come in stronger or weaker than expected, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

That leaves very little room for error, Essaye said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the report to show 73,000 new jobs were created last month; that would be an improvement from just 64,000 in the initial reading for November. The unemployment rate also is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.

“As was the case for the last two jobs reports, a ‘Goldilocks’ number that shows solidly positive jobs growth and stable unemployment is the best-case scenario for stocks, and the number that can keep this rally going,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Explains Why Markets Shrugged Off Maduro’s Capture

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Oil supply implications, not politics, remain the market’s primary focus.

Why markets appear relatively calm after capture of Venezuelan President Maduro

“The reason the ouster of Maduro is unlikely to impact markets is the same one that explains why the Russia/ Ukraine war hasn’t impacted markets nor the heightened U.S./Iran tensions: Oil supplies,” according to a note from Tom Essaye, founder and president of the Sevens Report Research. “Markets look at geopolitical events solely through the lens of impacts of critical resources,” and mostly oil, he said Monday.

“Unless the event is going to reduce the supply of available oil,” spurring a jump in the price per barrel that risks slowing global growth, “then markets will largely ignore the event,” Essaye said. “In the case of Venezuela, if anything, the events of the weekend could boost oil supplies.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Puts S&P 500’s Powerful 3-Year Run in Perspective

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Recent gains rank among the strongest three-year returns in market history.

Putting the S&P 500’s strong 3-year return in context

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 wrapped up a three-year stretch that saw it gain about 84%, according to Sevens Report Research.

That places it among the index’s strongest three-year returns in the history of the U.S. stock market, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research. To be more precise, this return ranks in the 94th percentile of three-year returns over the past 100 years.

The best three-year return for the S&P 500 during that time occurred from 1995 to 1997 — +125.6% — the second-best occurred between 1933 and 1935 — +124.1% — and the third-best occurred from 1926 to 1928 — +120.4%. In each case, the index was lower five years later.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Says Venezuela Tanker Seizure Won’t Spike Oil Prices

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Tyler Richey sees geopolitical risk rising, but limited impact unless exports are disrupted.

U.S. seizes oil tanker off Venezuela. Why one analyst says it’s ‘a smart move.’

Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said in an email Wednesday that disruptions to Venezuelan oil “would add another factor to the already present geopolitical fear” that has rattled the oil futures market for more than a year.

“The wild card to watch is whether or not Guyana’s oil production growth is impacted due to disputes over offshore oil resources” with Venezuela, Richey said. However, “barring a material impact on Venezuelan oil exports or Guyana oil production growth expectations, the price impact on oil should be limited.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on December 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Flags Bond Market Unease Over Possible Hassett Fed Pick

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Stocks welcome dovish signals, but fixed-income markets are growing cautious.

Why Kevin Hassett’s appointment to the Fed chair isn’t automatically bullish for bonds

The Sevens Report highlights that falling rate expectations are being driven by more than just incoming data. Tom Essaye points to speculation around Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for Fed chair as a key influence behind recent market behavior.

While equities have reacted favorably to the prospect of a more dovish Fed, the bond market has responded far more defensively. Essaye notes that fixed-income investors are uneasy about the risk that an aggressively dovish chair could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially allowing inflation pressures to re-emerge.

That concern appears to be showing up in yields, which backed up after briefly dipping below 4%. Although Essaye stresses there is no evidence that Hassett would compromise Fed independence, uncertainty alone has been enough to inject caution into bond markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.