The disappointing Chinese economic data offset an increase in Russia/Ukraine tensions to push commodity prices lower on Monday, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter. “A Chinese economic slowdown, if it happens, will add to demand concerns” they said. Click here to read the full article.
Despite numerous warning signals from cross asset analysis, including the still deeply inverted yield curve, Dow Theory, which is one of the most historically accurate strategies to identify the primary trend in the stock market, is now saying the path of least resistance is higher for the first time since April of 2022, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research and a former Merrill Lynch trader, in a Monday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
While it’s undeniable that fears of a hard landing, inflation and hawkish Fed have not materialized, the reality is that the current level of the S&P 500 largely factors all of that in, so last week’s CPI and PPI reports didn’t provide the market with a new positive catalyst, but instead just reinforced what was already widely assumed,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Monday note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a night of disappointing tech earnings.
NFLX, TSLA and TSM all posted disappointing earnings results (stocks down 3% – 6% pre-market) and that’s weighing on Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures.
There was no notable economic data overnight.
Today will be another busy day of data and earnings results. On the economic front, the two key reports are Weekly Jobless Claims (E: 250k) and Philly Fed (E: -10.0), and as you can guess (and especially at these stretched valuations) markets will want to see more Goldilocks data (so stable claims and Philly and falling prices). We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.23M) but, barring a big miss, that shouldn’t move markets.
Turning to earnings, focus today is on industrials and consumer/healthcare names, and some important results to watch include: AAL ($1.58), TSM ($1.07), JNJ ($2.61), PM ($1.48), COF ($3.31), CSX ($0.49), and PPG ($2.14).
Oil stabilized at support near the 2023 lows following Wednesday’s weekly Energy Information Administration report, which showed a “massive draw” in commercial crude-oil stockpiles, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Looking ahead, the turmoil within Russia is unlikely to have a material impact on oil markets unless we see it affect production or exports of oil. Looking ahead, the turmoil within Russia is unlikely to have a material impact on oil markets unless we see it affect production or exports of oil, said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
This heavy price action with repetitive tests of the same support and continuously weaker recoveries suggests the oil market is approaching a tipping point; poised to either break down to new 2023 lows or finally move beyond the $72-$73 area, triggering a squeeze as sentiment and positioning in the energy markets is very bearish, noted analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note. Click here to read the full article.
This heavy price action with repetitive tests of the same support and continuously weaker recoveries suggests the oil market is approaching a tipping point; poised to either break down to new 2023 lows or finally move beyond the $72-$73 area, triggering a squeeze as sentiment and positioning in the energy markets is very bearish, noted analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note. Click here to read the full article.
“The debt ceiling drama is getting most of the attention, but a hawkish shift in tone by a list of [U.S. Federal Reserve] officials recently has holstered the dollar and sent policy-sensitive rates (beyond those durations reacting to the debt negotiations) higher,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote on Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Natural gas is the largest source of electricity in the U.S., at roughly 40%, so when temperatures heat up in the summertime, demand for power to run air conditioning units rises in lockstep. Click here to read the full article.